ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

So where are the tracks??

[wzrgirl1]

Am I losing my mind??? I was responding to somebody's post and now it isn't there.

[Blown Away]

Seems if our TD moves faster than the NHC forecast it will get farther N and maybe affect SFL and if it lingers down there as predicted it will get picked up and blasted ENE just S of of Florida.

[cycloneye]

Am I losing my mind??? I was responding to somebody's post and now it isn't there.

That member deleited his post.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND A NOAA BUOY IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z HWRF is a little weaker compared to previous run. Also closer to the NHC track. The right turn is a bit sharper and ends at the NW tip of Cuba:

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN 18L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 23

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -81.40 LAT: 15.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -81.60 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -82.10 LAT: 16.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -82.50 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -82.80 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -83.50 LAT: 16.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.10 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.60 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -85.00 LAT: 17.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -85.50 LAT: 17.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -86.00 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.20 LAT: 18.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 956.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -86.50 LAT: 18.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -86.70 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -86.70 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 959.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -85.80 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -85.10 LAT: 22.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -84.40 LAT: 22.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -83.60 LAT: 22.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):

[ozonepete]

Looks to be moving NNW pretty quickly; looks faster than 10 mph to me. If it doesn't slow down a lot pretty soon it would seem unlikely that this will go as far west as they are forecasting. In the satellite loops you can see the blocking to the west but I don't see much at all to the north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TBCaneFreak]

Interesting - the WMO has a different track. I just happened to stumble across this while I was looking at the Allmetsat site. I check them once in a while because they have really cool satellite images. I just noticed they have a tropical info tab and I followed it until I got this. The WMO says they get it from RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre) which in turn says the RSMC for the Atlantic info is the NHC out of Miami. But this track sure isn't what the NHC has. Anyway, just thought it was interesting.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174 ... -10-23.png

That doesnt appear to be a track...Its Miami ans Havana shown on the map

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z GFDL continues from the previous run. Brings TD18 further inland the Yucatan Peninsula just a little south of the 5pm NHC track:

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN 18L



INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 23



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 15.0 81.7 340./ 7.0

6 15.8 81.6 6./ 7.9

12 16.0 81.8 318./ 2.6

18 16.2 82.1 311./ 4.2

24 16.7 82.6 312./ 6.8

30 16.8 83.0 286./ 3.4

36 17.0 83.4 293./ 4.5

42 17.2 84.4 282./ 9.7

48 17.2 85.3 269./ 9.3

54 17.2 86.0 270./ 6.3

60 17.4 86.8 284./ 7.3

66 17.3 87.5 263./ 6.9

72 17.5 88.1 291./ 5.9

78 17.7 88.5 297./ 5.1

84 18.0 89.1 296./ 6.4

90 18.3 89.2 340./ 3.2

96 18.8 89.3 355./ 4.4

102 19.1 89.1 30./ 3.8

108 19.4 89.0 9./ 3.1

114 19.4 88.8 95./ 2.3

120 19.1 88.6 140./ 3.0

126 18.7 88.4 153./ 4.8

[fci]

Interesting - the WMO has a different track. I just happened to stumble across this while I was looking at the Allmetsat site. I check them once in a while because they have really cool satellite images. I just noticed they have a tropical info tab and I followed it until I got this. The WMO says they get it from RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre) which in turn says the RSMC for the Atlantic info is the NHC out of Miami. But this track sure isn't what the NHC has. Anyway, just thought it was interesting.

That doesnt appear to be a track...Its Miami ans Havana shown on the map

Good catch!
That makes sense.

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Per latest IR TD 18 is gradually becoming better organized this evening... I expect Rina by morning with steady strengthening during the day Monday. Rina should move slowly to the w/wnw Monday into Tuesday. I expect Rina to be approaching hurricane strength Tuesday. At the same time a turn towards the nnw/n late Tuesday could begin as it heads towards the Yucatan channel...

[ROCK]

those are some cold tops firing right now...and I think the center has moved towards that convection also which mean its more north than best track. Center relos always a good bet in developing systems....I smell a FL surprise in a few days if it beats the front...

[TBCaneFreak]

Classic October storm possible here....could very well be an issue for SFL to as far as Tampa Bay, or miss entirely...Just a notation on climotology...48 hours from now marks the 90th anniversaty of the Tampa Bay Hurricane..it formed on October 23 from a depression in the Western Carb...If interested check out the track and formation area...QUITE INTERESTING...it too was pulled north then NE and ENE via a trof...so precident has been set...IT CAN HAPPEN HERE TOO

[jinftl]

NWS Miami Discussion this afternoon mentions possibility that front will slow down and stall out over south florida....

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE
FUTURE EVOLUTION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES FROM
THE FOUR CORNER REGION TO THE SE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ECMWF
CONTINUES WITH THE SAME TRACK AND SPEED AND MOVES AN ASSOCIATED
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. IN DOING SO...IT ESTABLISH A MOISTURE CONNECTION
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW TRANSPORTING AMPLE MOISTURE
NEWD ALONG THE FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE AND NOW, NOT ONLY
SHOWS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE, BUT MOVES IT FURTHER NORTH. GFS NOW HAS
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL
REFLECTS PREVIOUS THINKING AND IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
DECIDED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP STATUS QUO
UNTIL WE GET TO SEE A DEFINITE TREND IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS.

those are some cold tops firing right now...and I think the center has moved towards that convection also which mean its more north than best track. Center relos always a good bet in developing systems....I smell a FL surprise in a few days if it beats the front...

[cycloneye]

Classic October storm possible here....could very well be an issue for SFL to as far as Tampa Bay, or miss entirely...Just a notation on climotology...48 hours from now marks the 90th anniversaty of the Tampa Bay Hurricane..it formed on October 23 from a depression in the Western Carb...If interested check out the track and formation area...QUITE INTERESTING...it too was pulled north then NE and ENE via a trof...so precident has been set...IT CAN HAPPEN HERE TOO

To let you know that threads made apart from the proper systems are not allowed in this Active Storms/Invests forum. That is why I merged the post with this discussion thread.

[Vortex]

Convection is becoming much more concentrated this evening and upper-air pattern looks quite conducive for futher development...Probably very close to TS

[TBCaneFreak]

Classic October storm possible here....could very well be an issue for SFL to as far as Tampa Bay, or miss entirely...Just a notation on climotology...48 hours from now marks the 90th anniversaty of the Tampa Bay Hurricane..it formed on October 23 from a depression in the Western Carb...If interested check out the track and formation area...QUITE INTERESTING...it too was pulled north then NE and ENE via a trof...so precident has been set...IT CAN HAPPEN HERE TOO

To let you know that threads made apart from the proper systems are not allowed in this Active Storms/Invests forum. That is why I merged the post with this discussion thread.

Thank you, was not my intention to post outside the forum...I hit the wrong option...Thanks again...Happy Rina Watching everyone...be prepared, anything can happen

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

What about TS Rina at 11 PM advisory? Of course,until the advisory comes out is not official,but this is the prior step towards that.

AL, 18, 2011102400, , BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SFLcane]

those are some cold tops firing right now...and I think the center has moved towards that convection also which mean its more north than best track. Center relos always a good bet in developing systems....I smell a FL surprise in a few days if it beats the front...

Even though recon data a few hrs ago showed the center was still southeast of the convective ball i think its quite possible whatever llc is there reforms closer to the convection (possibly) allowing for a more northern track.