jinftl wrote:Until we are in the forecast cone, it is really just speculation (even then, until a watch or warning is issued, it is speculation...remember irene). Something to watch given the time of year and the propensity of systems in this region to eventually get pulled to the north and northeast, but not anything to start preparing for at this time.
The td didn't form until late this afternoon, so any news headlines from the other day are to be taken with a grain of salt as the first model runs with the actual center didn't get run until tonight.
tgenius wrote:So I heard on the news the other day we may have a storm our way in Miami.. it's got that wilma ish vibe to it from where its at now.. but what would the real chance be of it coming this way?
Wxman has been pretty consistent in his posts that he thinks this will not be a major issue for SFL.
Saturday afternoon:
The threat to Florida continues to diminish. The slower it moves over the next 5 days, the more time for the strong front to reach the SE Gulf ahead of the disturbance. Models have all backed off on development, keeping the system near the northern Yucatan as the front arrives. Increasing wind shear ahead of the front should drive the moisture/remnants off to the northeast, possibly even south of the FL Peninsula next Friday. Too soon to rule out any enhance precip along the front in southern FL, though.
Sunday afternoon:
I suspect it will move faster than the NHC is forecasting on Thu/Fri and be located between western Cuba and the NE Yucatan on Friday afternoon. Movement by then would be to the NE as the front approaches. I'm not sure if the circulation will remain intact as it passes through the FL Straits next Saturday, as it'll probably be merging with the cold front.
To me, the track looks oh too familiar to the "W" storm.
Not the intensity by any stretch of the imagination; but the track..
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