ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Now TS Rina. Stewart has the forecast and it is now expected to become a hurricane. Surprise, surprise.

[WeatherEmperor]

Also notice a more northward turn at the end of the 11pm forecast.



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[ROCK]

Now TS Rina. Stewart has the forecast and it is now expected to become a hurricane. Surprise, surprise.

I dont doubt it at all....looked like a TS earlier. High heat content in that area can make for a quick intenisty...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST. RINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

INFORMATION FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
NICARAGUAN BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 82.2W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 82.2W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 82.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 83.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 85.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 33-35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THESE
WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN GUSTS. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO HAD TO AVOID STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS... THEREFORE...
UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THEN... HOWEVER...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AND CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...
WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STRONGER WINDS IN THAT
REGION AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING...AND THE MOST RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE IS T2.7/39
KT. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM RINA...THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.

RINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF NEAR 30C FOR THE NEXT 72-96
HOURS. IN ADDITION...DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOME VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEAN CONTENT THAT
IS MORE THAN 10 TIMES THE VALUE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS RINA MOVES UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND VENTILATION
AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CYCLONE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODEL...LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE
FORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE
GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO
CALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN
NORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
THREATS FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE 8-15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN DURING THE PAST 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.4N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.8N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.7N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.9N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROCK]

I wouldnt trust the GFDL or the HWRF as far as I could throw them..and I work out.....

I lean on the EURO and the CMC and like to blend the two tracks. My own TVCN....

And what does what tell you right now Rock?...Where are you leaning towards as of a track/intensity?

track= FL
intensity= minimum cat 2 (depending on land interaction)


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jinftl]

As of 11pm Wind Probability, first time that FL locations on the forecast....3% chance of tropical storm force winds in Marathon and 4% chance of tropical storm force winds in Key West in the next 120 hours...

TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL A
0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2011

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

[TBCaneFreak]

I wouldnt trust the GFDL or the HWRF as far as I could throw them..and I work out.....

I lean on the EURO and the CMC and like to blend the two tracks. My own TVCN....

And what does what tell you right now Rock?...Where are you leaning towards as of a track/intensity?

track= FL
intensity= minimum cat 2 (depending on land interaction)

Do you think extreme south FL or somewhere Florida Peninsula

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I see we now have Rina, and to think that some people had killed this system just 24 hrs ago.
Becoming a hurricane is certainly not out of the question.

[jinftl]

Intensity forecast may be conservative per 11pm NHC Discussion:

RINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF NEAR 30C FOR THE NEXT 72-96
HOURS. IN ADDITION...DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOME VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEAN CONTENT THAT
IS MORE THAN 10 TIMES THE VALUE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS RINA MOVES UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND VENTILATION
AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING
FACTOR IS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
CYCLONE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODEL...LGEM.

[cycloneye]

The most important part of 11 PM discussion.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE
FORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE
GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO
CALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN
NORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.

[AdamFirst]

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE
FORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE
GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN
DISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO
CALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN
NORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF
MODEL TRACKS.

[SouthDadeFish]

I found the discussion to be very well-written by Stewart. He certainly thinks that Rina will be in a very favorable environment over the next three days... Even saying the intensity forecast may be conservative. I found that somewhat scary and questionable at the same time, but hey he knows a heck of a lot more than I do. I will say if Rina encounters the kind of upper-level environment he described with the ridge overhead and strong outflow channels combined with extremely warm waters, she could definitely bomb out. I guess the evolution of that upper-level ridge will be very critical to the forecast.

[AdamFirst]

It's going to be a painfully anxious week ahead watching this one.

The only one I can see holding this back is the vertical instability.

[cycloneye]

It's going to be a painfully anxious week ahead watching this one.

The only one I can see holding this back is the vertical instability.

Yes,is the wildcard here.

[SouthDadeFish]

Keep in mind those instability graphics use the basin as a whole I believe. This storm is only in the Western Caribbean.

[brunota2003]

It uses the whole Caribbean, yes...but still, that is a big drop/way below normal. However, with the heat content, I think the storm can and will get over it. RI like Wilma? I think not due to that very reason...but I can see the possibility of RI occurring over the next 48 to 72 hours.

[jinftl]

The 11pm NHC forecast shows a due north motion between 96 and 120 hours as a hurricane

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.


Compare that to the 5pm NHC forecast which showed a NW motion 96-120 hours (as a tropical storm).

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT



For those watching a Wilma track (not intensity comparison)...the furthest west Wilma got before turning northeast was 87.1 W longitude...or 20 miles east of the current forecast track for Rina

Wilma coordinates:

22 / 0600 20.8 87.0
22 / 1200 21.0 87.1
22 / 1800 21.3 87.1
23 / 0000 21.6 87.0

[psyclone]

The 11pm NHC forecast shows a due north motion between 96 and 120 hours as a hurricane

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 87.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.


Compare that to the 5pm NHC forecast which showed a NW motion 96-120 hours (as a tropical storm).

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT



For those watching a Wilma track (not intensity comparison)...the furthest west Wilma got before turning northeast was 87.1 W longitude...or 20 miles east of the current forecast track for Rina

Wilma coordinates:

22 / 0600 20.8 87.0
22 / 1200 21.0 87.1
22 / 1800 21.3 87.1
23 / 0000 21.6 87.0

If the storm turns north a bit sooner it could avoid interacting with the yucatan and intensify even more, all else being equal.

[Tampa_God]

Another system to watch here.... fun!

[psyclone]

Another system to watch here.... fun!

in all likelihood it's a nothing for us. the approaching front will shunt it to the east well south of here. even if it makes it toward south florida, it'll likely be in a greatly sheared, weakened state regardless of the intensity it attains in its tenure over the caribbean. dry air and shear will likely hammer this system once it gets near or above the tropic of cancer.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.