ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

It looks like 00z GFS is a bit more stronger than in the past few runs that had virtually nothing.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It looks like 00z GFS is a bit more stronger than in the past few runs that had virtually nothing.

It still dips it a little south before driving it west toward belize at 60 hrs. That doesn't seem likely now although you never know.

[cycloneye]

At 78 hours, it moves more NNW.

[WeatherEmperor]

At 78 hours, it moves more NNW.

Yes Luis. Even further at 87hrs, it is moving NNW just a little east of the 11pm forecast track from the NHC.

[cycloneye]

At 96 hour,just east of Cozumel.See loop.

00z GFS loop at 96 hours

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At 96 hour,just east of Cozumel.See loop.

00z GFS loop at 96 hours

The mid level steering flow at that time looks like it would steer it towards Florida

[fci]

An uncertain week ahead as we watch and wait while Rina strengthens and then decides whether to follow her sister Wilma's path.

[cycloneye]

At 120 hours,moves to the east??

00z GFS loop at 120 hours

[Ptarmigan]

It's over an area of very warm water. Could Rina undergo rapid intensification? Probably, but too early to tell. Wilma did not undergo RI until four days after it developed.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At 120 hours,moves to the east??

00z GFS loop at 120 hours

Looks like the front leaves it down there.

[cycloneye]

At 144 hours,it hangs in the NW Caribbean as front leaves it behind.

00z GFS Loop at 144 hours

[cycloneye]

Still in NW Caribbean at 168 hours.

00z GFS Loop at 168 hours

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS continued: Rina crosses Yucatan 11/1-2 before turning SW and committing suicide 11/3 back in MX.

[cycloneye]

At 192 hours,yes 192 hours,on November 1rst it still is in NW Caribbean,but closer to Yucatan. Ok folks,that is all for the play by play of GFS as bed calls me so until later this morning,nite.

00z GFS Loop at 192 hours

[psyclone]

It's over an area of very warm water. Could Rina undergo rapid intensification? Probably, but too early to tell. Wilma did not undergo RI until four days after it developed.

Wilma spent a good chunk of time as a td too. storms seem to frequently develop and move slowly in this region at this time of the year but they can really crank once they get going.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z HWRF hits South Florida as a Cat2/Cat3 hurricane:

TROPICAL STORM EIGHTEEN 18L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 24

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 16.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -82.30 LAT: 16.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -82.80 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -83.20 LAT: 17.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -83.40 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -83.70 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 951.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.30 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 18.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -85.00 LAT: 19.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 930.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 933.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -85.40 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -84.00 LAT: 23.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 935.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 24.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -81.90 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -80.60 LAT: 26.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -78.90 LAT: 27.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -76.70 LAT: 28.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):

[Evil Jeremy]

Radical change of heart for new GFDL. Follows the HWRF's lead on a SFL strike, but gets much closer to the Yucatan first.

18z 126 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif
00z 120 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

Huge difference.

[blp]

Radical change of heart for new GFDL. Follows the HWRF's lead on a SFL strike, but gets much closer to the Yucatan first.

18z 126 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif
00z 120 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

Huge difference.

Yep, I was just looking at that. Take a look at the SFWMD plots. GFDL big change.

Image saved.

[Shuriken]

Where can one find charts of heat-content (not just SST)?

[xironman]

Where can one find charts of heat-content (not just SST)?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html, and yeah, its toasty.

Finally a decent burst down by were the center is.