ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection has continued to build SE and the center is no longer exposed. With the impressive outflow channel setting up further intensification seems likely (just my opinion not an official forecast). Perhaps the dynamical models are onto something.

[SouthDadeFish]

She is firing some very cold cloud tops:

[Frank2]

Dry air over the Gulf and Florida this morning - we'll see what happens, though Wilma always comes to mind, though the above discussion doesn't seem to be focused very much on Rina making it this far north...

Frank

[SouthDadeFish]

Estimated center location according to CIMSS ADT:

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 40kts.

AL, 18, 2011102412, , BEST, 0, 170N, 826W, 40, 1001, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[sandyb]

Good news for Florida according to the weather channel...so far they say they think Rina will not hit Florida lets hope they are right still a week away a lot can happen but hopefully they will not get her

[NDG]

I think recon is going to find out when they fly into her early this afternoon that she will be a moderate tropical storm, she is organizing beatiful this morning.
Her cloud tops are now expanding to her south, and a better SW inflow looks to be taking place now.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Vortex]

certainly in a strengthening phase...well see what recon finds but I suspect a 45kt storm and that may be conservative...

[Vortex]

First vis, could be a beauty in the making...

[HurrMark]

This would not shock me if this pulls an "October surprise" and ramps up...conditions certainly are not as ideal as Wilma, but I personally think a minimal hurricane is a bit too low in terms of intensity. Nevertheless, I think this will probably pull a Michelle and slide south of Florida in the Straits this weekend (disclaimer - not an official forecast). This cold front coming up is going to be a doozy ...won't get out of the 40s in most of the Northeast later this week. Hard time believing it will slide that far north to even clip FL.

[Vortex]

Hurricane Michelle may be a good analog...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Michelle

[Blown Away]

This would not shock me if this pulls an "October surprise" and ramps up...conditions certainly are not as ideal as Wilma, but I personally think a minimal hurricane is a bit too low in terms of intensity. Nevertheless, I think this will probably pull a Michelle and slide south of Florida in the Straits this weekend (disclaimer - not an official forecast). This cold front coming up is going to be a doozy ...won't get out of the 40s in most of the Northeast later this week. Hard time believing it will slide that far north to even clip FL.

It's a timing issue, current forecast leaves Rina far enough S in the Caribbean to stay below SFL as the front moves through, but if Rina gains more latitude faster, and will if she becomes a deeper/stronger "October Surprise", then SFL is a target, IMO.

[sandyb]

not saying it will happen, just asking a question but how long does it take to evacuate the keys?

[ObsessedMiami]

This would not shock me if this pulls an "October surprise" and ramps up...conditions certainly are not as ideal as Wilma, but I personally think a minimal hurricane is a bit too low in terms of intensity. Nevertheless, I think this will probably pull a Michelle and slide south of Florida in the Straits this weekend (disclaimer - not an official forecast). This cold front coming up is going to be a doozy ...won't get out of the 40s in most of the Northeast later this week. Hard time believing it will slide that far north to even clip FL.

It's a timing issue, current forecast leaves Rina far enough S in the Caribbean to stay below SFL as the front moves through, but if Rina gains more latitude faster, and will if she becomes a deeper/stronger "October Surprise", then SFL is a target, IMO.

Certainly, so all the speculation re: SFL or Straits are moot until that becomes clearer. STAY TUNED! SAME BAT-TIME, SAME BAT-CHANNEL

[AdamFirst]

not saying it will happen, just asking a question but how long does it take to evacuate the keys?

At least a day. The tourists are the first to go, then the residents. It's not like those fine people down in the Conch Republic leave for hurricanes anyway.

[SFLcane]

Folks in my opinion it really does not matter whether rina gets picked up by the approaching front as that upper level jet fully entrenched in gulf now will more then likely keep sfl safe.

[Vortex]

NWS Miami:

THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY
REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS
DOES BEGIN TO STALL THIS BOUNDARY OVERHEAD WHILE THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT FURTHER PROGRESSING ESE WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
.WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT AND SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS PERSIST WITHIN THIS PORTION OF
THE PERIOD. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE WELL SOUTHWEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.

[GCANE]

Firing high rain-rate. Solid on microwave.

IMHO - good to go.

[Vortex]

Firing high rain-rate. Solid on microwave.

IMHO - good to go.
http://i.imgur.com/20tPH.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/3pqeT.jpg

I would be surprised if by late today recon reports a developing eyewall.