ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

I'm working for 1 more hour but will pick these up as often as I can until I'm totally clear of work. AF 306 enroute to Rina now:

000
URNT15 KNHC 241456
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 04 20111024
144700 3014N 08903W 8013 02029 0178 +096 -011 313021 022 /// /// 03
144730 3014N 08903W 8013 02029 0176 +080 -014 320021 021 /// /// 03
144800 3011N 08905W 7514 02561 0172 +069 -014 348020 020 /// /// 03
144830 3009N 08906W 7310 02788 0165 +060 -008 353022 024 /// /// 03
144900 3008N 08907W 7122 02998 0161 +048 -014 349021 021 /// /// 03
144930 3006N 08909W 6913 03241 0143 +045 -020 343027 029 /// /// 03
145000 3004N 08910W 6713 03480 0122 +046 -023 343024 025 /// /// 03
145030 3002N 08910W 6539 03698 0109 +041 -020 350029 030 /// /// 03
145100 2959N 08910W 6393 03880 0085 +046 -027 359033 034 /// /// 03
145130 2957N 08910W 6254 04057 0081 +035 -032 001034 035 /// /// 03
145200 2955N 08910W 6105 04249 0074 +024 -037 356032 033 /// /// 03
145230 2953N 08910W 5901 04517 0073 +005 -042 358030 031 /// /// 03
145300 2951N 08910W 5709 04796 0080 -010 -049 353028 029 /// /// 03
145330 2948N 08910W 5550 05022 0090 -028 -056 347030 030 /// /// 03
145400 2946N 08910W 5415 05219 0230 -040 -064 339030 031 /// /// 03
145430 2944N 08910W 5282 05394 0226 -053 -074 338030 030 /// /// 03
145500 2942N 08910W 5202 05532 0251 -055 -084 346031 032 /// /// 03
145530 2940N 08911W 5090 05706 0262 -057 -092 349027 028 /// /// 03
145600 2938N 08911W 5000 05846 0272 -069 -101 351026 026 /// /// 03
145630 2936N 08911W 4911 05984 0279 -081 -109 351025 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Got it.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241506
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 05 20111024
145700 2934N 08911W 4821 06129 0287 -092 -119 350024 024 /// /// 03
145730 2932N 08911W 4744 06252 0294 -104 -126 349023 024 /// /// 03
145800 2930N 08911W 4665 06382 0300 -115 -134 346023 023 /// /// 03
145830 2928N 08911W 4587 06511 0307 -124 -141 341022 022 /// /// 03
145900 2926N 08911W 4518 06627 0313 -133 -147 332023 023 /// /// 05
145930 2924N 08911W 4449 06742 0318 -143 //// 327023 024 /// /// 05
150000 2922N 08911W 4379 06864 0323 -150 //// 320023 023 /// /// 05
150030 2920N 08911W 4318 06969 0330 -159 //// 319023 023 /// /// 05
150100 2918N 08911W 4260 07073 0336 -167 //// 320022 022 /// /// 05
150130 2916N 08911W 4202 07175 0341 -175 //// 314023 023 /// /// 05
150200 2914N 08911W 4147 07274 0347 -185 //// 316022 023 /// /// 05
150230 2912N 08911W 4110 07345 0351 -192 //// 318024 024 /// /// 05
150300 2910N 08911W 4093 07372 0351 -195 //// 318024 024 /// /// 05
150330 2907N 08911W 4098 07359 0347 -195 //// 317024 024 /// /// 05
150400 2905N 08911W 4097 07358 0344 -195 //// 316023 023 /// /// 05
150430 2902N 08911W 4098 07353 0340 -195 //// 318023 023 /// /// 05
150500 2900N 08911W 4097 07351 0338 -193 //// 319023 024 /// /// 05
150530 2857N 08911W 4098 07323 0325 -194 //// 317023 023 /// /// 05
150600 2854N 08911W 4101 07360 0353 -195 //// 321024 025 /// /// 05
150630 2852N 08912W 4101 07361 0354 -195 //// 323024 025 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Sanibel]

I think Rina is gearing-up for hurricane quickly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241516
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 06 20111024
150700 2849N 08912W 4103 07356 0354 -192 -217 327024 024 /// /// 05
150730 2846N 08912W 4101 07361 0354 -194 -217 327024 024 /// /// 03
150800 2843N 08912W 4102 07360 0355 -193 -219 327025 025 /// /// 03
150830 2840N 08912W 4102 07362 0356 -190 //// 328024 025 /// /// 05
150900 2838N 08912W 4102 07360 0356 -194 //// 329025 025 /// /// 05
150930 2835N 08912W 4102 07362 0357 -195 //// 332025 025 /// /// 05
151000 2832N 08912W 4103 07360 0356 -193 //// 331025 025 /// /// 05
151030 2829N 08912W 4102 07361 0357 -190 //// 329023 024 /// /// 05
151100 2826N 08912W 4102 07362 0358 -190 //// 330022 022 /// /// 05
151130 2823N 08912W 4102 07363 0359 -190 //// 330022 022 /// /// 05
151200 2820N 08912W 4103 07362 0359 -190 //// 334020 021 /// /// 05
151230 2817N 08912W 4102 07366 0361 -190 //// 335019 019 /// /// 05
151300 2814N 08912W 4103 07363 0361 -191 //// 335019 019 /// /// 05
151330 2812N 08911W 4103 07367 0362 -190 //// 335018 018 /// /// 05
151400 2809N 08909W 4103 07364 0362 -190 //// 336018 019 /// /// 05
151430 2806N 08908W 4103 07364 0362 -186 //// 337016 016 /// /// 05
151500 2804N 08907W 4102 07364 0361 -190 //// 343016 016 /// /// 05
151530 2801N 08905W 4103 07363 0360 -190 //// 344015 015 /// /// 05
151600 2758N 08904W 4102 07365 0361 -190 //// 346015 015 /// /// 05
151630 2756N 08903W 4103 07367 0362 -190 //// 349013 013 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Vortex]

I think recon will find a 55-60mph storm with sub 1000mb pressures...Rina, continues to get better organized by the hour. One of the keys to further strengthening will be how well established the central core becomes. With plenty of dry air in the surrounding environment any entrainment would significantly impact the strengthening phase...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241527
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 07 20111024
151700 2753N 08901W 4103 07367 0362 -189 //// 350013 013 /// /// 05
151730 2750N 08900W 4103 07365 0362 -186 //// 345012 013 /// /// 05
151800 2748N 08859W 4105 07362 0361 -186 //// 346012 012 /// /// 05
151830 2745N 08858W 4104 07362 0360 -190 //// 350014 015 /// /// 05
151900 2742N 08856W 4102 07367 0361 -190 //// 354013 014 /// /// 05
151930 2740N 08855W 4103 07365 0361 -191 //// 358014 014 /// /// 05
152000 2737N 08854W 4104 07364 0362 -195 //// 358016 016 /// /// 05
152030 2734N 08852W 4103 07365 0361 -195 //// 360017 018 009 000 05
152100 2732N 08851W 4104 07363 0361 -195 //// 360018 019 009 000 01
152130 2729N 08850W 4102 07366 0361 -195 //// 001018 018 008 000 01
152200 2727N 08849W 4103 07365 0362 -195 //// 003018 019 009 000 01
152230 2724N 08847W 4102 07366 0362 -195 //// 004018 018 009 000 05
152300 2721N 08846W 4103 07366 0363 -195 //// 006018 018 009 000 05
152330 2718N 08845W 4102 07369 0364 -195 //// 014014 015 010 000 01
152400 2716N 08843W 4105 07365 0363 -195 //// 015015 015 010 000 01
152430 2713N 08842W 4103 07366 0363 -195 //// 016015 016 012 000 01
152500 2711N 08841W 4102 07366 0362 -195 //// 016015 016 008 000 05
152530 2708N 08840W 4105 07365 0363 -196 //// 019015 015 009 000 01
152600 2705N 08838W 4103 07367 0365 -196 //// 023014 015 007 000 05
152630 2703N 08837W 4102 07369 0364 -196 //// 026013 014 007 000 05
$$
;

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Rina is looking very very good, cloud tops have warmed a little bit but they're still very cold, the outflow is excellent in all quadrants and the banding on the northern half is very good, even in the southern half there are som hints of bands trying to develop, and Rina has the "fist" look that some people talk about when a tropical cyclone is intensifying. IMO RECON will find a 55 kt storm to say the least.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241536
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 08 20111024
152700 2700N 08836W 4105 07364 0363 -195 //// 022015 015 010 000 05
152730 2657N 08835W 4103 07365 0362 -195 //// 022013 014 011 000 05
152800 2655N 08833W 4103 07364 0362 -194 //// 016012 012 012 001 01
152830 2652N 08832W 4102 07366 0361 -195 //// 014012 013 014 000 05
152900 2649N 08831W 4103 07364 0361 -195 //// 011011 012 018 000 01
152930 2647N 08830W 4103 07366 0363 -191 //// 003010 010 020 000 01
153000 2644N 08828W 4103 07367 0364 -190 //// 019008 008 022 000 01
153030 2641N 08827W 4103 07365 0363 -186 //// 016009 009 023 000 01
153100 2639N 08826W 4104 07365 0362 -185 //// 008010 011 023 000 01
153130 2636N 08824W 4103 07364 0360 -185 //// 359013 013 023 000 01
153200 2634N 08823W 4103 07362 0360 -185 //// 351014 014 024 000 01
153230 2631N 08822W 4103 07362 0360 -192 //// 349015 015 024 000 01
153300 2628N 08821W 4102 07365 0360 -195 //// 346014 014 024 000 01
153330 2626N 08820W 4102 07365 0360 -196 //// 345013 013 023 000 05
153400 2623N 08818W 4103 07362 0360 -195 //// 344011 011 024 000 01
153430 2620N 08817W 4103 07362 0359 -194 //// 339010 010 024 000 01
153500 2618N 08816W 4105 07358 0359 -190 //// 337011 011 025 000 01
153530 2615N 08815W 4103 07362 0359 -190 //// 336010 011 024 000 05
153600 2613N 08813W 4103 07365 0361 -190 //// 328008 009 023 000 05
153630 2610N 08812W 4104 07362 0360 -186 //// 303008 008 023 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241546
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 09 20111024
153700 2607N 08811W 4102 07364 0360 -185 //// 297007 007 023 000 01
153730 2605N 08810W 4102 07363 0359 -186 //// 303006 006 023 000 01
153800 2602N 08808W 4104 07361 0359 -189 //// 313006 006 023 000 01
153830 2559N 08807W 4103 07361 0359 -190 //// 320007 007 021 001 05
153900 2557N 08806W 4105 07360 0359 -190 //// 312008 009 022 000 01
153930 2554N 08805W 4101 07366 0359 -190 //// 298007 007 022 000 01
154000 2552N 08803W 4103 07362 0359 -187 //// 294008 009 022 000 01
154030 2549N 08802W 4105 07358 0358 -185 //// 294010 010 022 000 01
154100 2546N 08801W 4104 07359 0358 -185 //// 292010 010 021 000 05
154130 2544N 08800W 4103 07363 0360 -185 //// 278011 011 022 000 01
154200 2541N 08759W 4103 07363 0362 -185 //// 275011 011 021 000 01
154230 2539N 08757W 4104 07365 0362 -185 //// 270010 010 020 000 05
154300 2536N 08756W 4102 07369 0362 -185 //// 267009 009 021 000 05
154330 2533N 08755W 4103 07363 0361 -185 //// 271008 008 021 000 05
154400 2531N 08754W 4105 07360 0361 -185 //// 273007 007 020 000 01
154430 2528N 08752W 4105 07360 0360 -185 //// 280007 008 020 000 01
154500 2526N 08751W 4103 07364 0361 -185 //// 279007 008 020 000 01
154530 2523N 08750W 4101 07370 0362 -185 //// 284008 008 021 000 01
154600 2520N 08749W 4103 07366 0362 -185 //// 291008 008 021 000 05
154630 2518N 08748W 4103 07365 0362 -185 //// 296008 008 020 000 05
$$
;

[wxman57]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

[Bocadude85]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

Are you thinking she will go through the Florida straits or over Cuba?

[maxx9512]

Its looking like Rina is making a good run at becoming a hurricane this morning. Seems to be getting a nice spiral look to it. From what I've read and seen it does not effect Fl. as a cyclone. Was planning to do Octoberfest this weekend and local weather mentioned maybe on Thurs/Fri some moisture returns. My question is will the moisture from Rina end up coming toward S/SW Fl., like 95L, did this weekend?

[wxman57]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

Are you thinking she will go through the Florida straits or over Cuba?

I'm thinking over Cuba. Sure is quiet in here for a hurricane developing in the NW Caribbean.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241557
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 10 20111024
154700 2515N 08746W 4103 07365 0362 -186 //// 304007 007 020 000 01
154730 2513N 08745W 4103 07364 0362 -187 //// 300007 008 022 000 01
154800 2510N 08744W 4103 07364 0362 -189 //// 307007 007 022 000 01
154830 2507N 08743W 4103 07365 0362 -188 //// 303007 007 023 000 01
154900 2505N 08742W 4103 07365 0362 -186 //// 306007 008 024 000 01
154930 2502N 08740W 4103 07365 0363 -185 //// 308008 008 023 000 01
155000 2500N 08739W 4103 07365 0363 -185 //// 299009 009 023 000 01
155030 2457N 08738W 4103 07366 0363 -185 //// 298009 009 022 001 05
155100 2454N 08737W 4103 07365 0362 -185 //// 304009 010 021 001 01
155130 2452N 08736W 4103 07365 0363 -185 //// 303009 010 019 000 01
155200 2449N 08734W 4103 07367 0364 -185 //// 300008 008 015 000 01
155230 2446N 08733W 4103 07367 0365 -185 //// 303008 008 013 000 01
155300 2444N 08732W 4103 07367 0365 -185 //// 309007 007 014 000 01
155330 2441N 08731W 4105 07366 0364 -184 //// 319008 008 013 000 01
155400 2439N 08730W 4103 07369 0364 -184 //// 323009 009 014 000 01
155430 2436N 08728W 4103 07367 0363 -181 //// 328010 010 016 000 01
155500 2433N 08727W 4105 07366 0364 -181 //// 330010 010 015 000 01
155530 2431N 08726W 4103 07367 0364 -180 //// 333011 011 015 000 01
155600 2428N 08725W 4103 07367 0364 -180 //// 336011 011 013 000 01
155630 2426N 08724W 4102 07370 0364 -180 //// 342008 008 015 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[psyclone]

i could see this turning east and passing south of western cuba, perhaps hitting the isle of youth from the west and then eventually crossing over cuba.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.