ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

Are you thinking she will go through the Florida straits or over Cuba?

I'm thinking over Cuba. Sure is quiet in here for a hurricane developing in the NW Caribbean.

Thats good news for me and bad news for Cuba. I am leaving for Hawaii this weekend and was a little worried about Rina.. now I feel a little better.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241606
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 11 20111024
155700 2423N 08722W 4103 07366 0363 -180 //// 342009 009 018 000 01
155730 2420N 08721W 4103 07367 0363 -182 //// 348008 008 018 001 01
155800 2418N 08720W 4105 07365 0363 -181 //// 354008 008 022 000 05
155830 2415N 08719W 4102 07367 0363 -183 //// 000007 008 022 000 01
155900 2412N 08718W 4103 07366 0363 -180 //// 003008 009 023 000 05
155930 2410N 08716W 4103 07365 0362 -180 //// 355008 009 024 000 01
160000 2407N 08715W 4103 07366 0362 -180 //// 345008 008 024 000 01
160030 2405N 08714W 4103 07366 0362 -181 //// 346008 008 022 000 01
160100 2402N 08713W 4103 07365 0362 -180 //// 344008 009 021 000 01
160130 2359N 08712W 4103 07365 0362 -180 //// 344007 008 019 000 01
160200 2357N 08711W 4103 07367 0364 -180 //// 344008 008 019 000 01
160230 2354N 08709W 4103 07367 0365 -180 //// 337007 008 017 000 01
160300 2351N 08708W 4103 07367 0365 -180 //// 335007 007 016 000 01
160330 2349N 08707W 4103 07369 0365 -180 //// 334007 007 016 000 01
160400 2346N 08706W 4091 07386 0363 -182 //// 333006 007 012 000 01
160430 2344N 08705W 4039 07481 0366 -190 //// 333006 006 012 001 01
160500 2341N 08703W 3991 07571 0371 -197 //// 335006 007 014 001 01
160530 2339N 08702W 3953 07643 0375 -203 //// 341006 006 013 001 01
160600 2336N 08701W 3912 07719 0378 -209 //// 329006 007 013 001 01
160630 2334N 08700W 3866 07807 0382 -211 //// 304008 009 017 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241616
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 12 20111024
160700 2331N 08659W 3830 07877 0387 -215 //// 297011 012 017 000 01
160730 2329N 08658W 3793 07946 0390 -219 //// 296014 014 017 000 01
160800 2327N 08657W 3766 08002 0395 -225 //// 295015 015 018 000 01
160830 2324N 08656W 3758 08019 0398 -225 //// 291016 016 018 001 01
160900 2322N 08655W 3761 08017 0399 -225 //// 294016 016 019 001 01
160930 2319N 08654W 3762 08015 0399 -224 //// 294017 017 021 000 01
161000 2317N 08653W 3758 08024 0405 -220 //// 295016 016 022 000 05
161030 2314N 08651W 3759 08027 0405 -220 //// 296016 016 021 000 01
161100 2312N 08650W 3758 08019 0403 -220 //// 295016 016 022 000 01
161130 2309N 08649W 3758 08023 0404 -220 //// 296016 017 022 000 01
161200 2307N 08648W 3759 08026 0404 -220 //// 293016 016 023 001 01
161230 2304N 08647W 3758 08025 0404 -220 //// 293016 016 022 000 01
161300 2301N 08646W 3759 08028 0404 -220 //// 288017 017 024 001 01
161330 2259N 08645W 3759 08027 0405 -220 //// 284018 018 025 000 01
161400 2256N 08643W 3759 08023 0404 -219 //// 283019 019 025 000 05
161430 2254N 08642W 3758 08023 0404 -220 //// 282018 018 026 000 01
161500 2251N 08641W 3759 08023 0407 -220 //// 283018 018 025 001 01
161530 2248N 08640W 3759 08028 0406 -220 //// 283018 018 026 000 01
161600 2246N 08639W 3759 08026 0405 -220 //// 284019 019 027 001 01
161630 2243N 08638W 3759 08026 0406 -219 //// 282021 022 023 001 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[NDG]

I do not know if we can say that FL is in the clear, just like we can't say the Belize and Honduras are also out of the clear, could do either a Mitch or Wilma track, too early to tell.

[caneseddy]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

Are you thinking she will go through the Florida straits or over Cuba?

I'm thinking over Cuba. Sure is quiet in here for a hurricane developing in the NW Caribbean.

I think the reason may be we are at the tail end of the season and many people have been deflated by the weak storms that have formed this season and lack of any threat to the US, so many people have given up on this season.

Now back to the topic, Michelle from 2001 would be a good analog for this storm, as have been previously mentioned....which means I can enjoy my Halloween weekend

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241626
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 13 20111024
161700 2241N 08636W 3758 08030 0408 -220 //// 281021 021 024 000 01
161730 2238N 08635W 3759 08026 0407 -219 //// 282024 025 026 000 01
161800 2235N 08634W 3759 08026 0406 -215 //// 281027 027 025 002 01
161830 2233N 08633W 3761 08027 0407 -212 //// 278029 030 023 001 01
161900 2230N 08632W 3758 08025 0407 -210 //// 277031 032 022 001 01
161930 2227N 08631W 3758 08028 0407 -210 //// 276031 031 022 000 01
162000 2225N 08629W 3759 08026 0408 -208 //// 275031 032 022 000 01
162030 2222N 08628W 3759 08028 0408 -207 //// 273032 032 023 001 01
162100 2220N 08627W 3758 08030 0409 -206 //// 272031 032 023 002 01
162130 2217N 08625W 3759 08033 0410 -206 //// 275031 032 022 000 01
162200 2215N 08624W 3759 08028 0410 -206 //// 278031 032 022 000 01
162230 2212N 08623W 3758 08033 0410 -205 //// 279031 031 022 000 01
162300 2209N 08621W 3758 08035 0410 -209 //// 277030 031 022 001 01
162330 2207N 08620W 3761 08028 0411 -209 //// 276030 030 021 000 05
162400 2204N 08619W 3758 08035 0412 -210 //// 275028 029 021 001 01
162430 2202N 08617W 3758 08037 0412 -212 //// 274027 028 023 000 01
162500 2159N 08616W 3760 08034 0412 -213 //// 273027 027 025 000 01
162530 2156N 08615W 3759 08031 0412 -213 //// 274026 026 019 002 01
162600 2154N 08613W 3759 08030 0414 -215 //// 274026 026 021 000 01
162630 2151N 08612W 3759 08035 0413 -215 //// 276025 025 023 003 01
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241636
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 14 20111024
162700 2149N 08611W 3761 08029 0413 -216 //// 280026 026 021 002 01
162730 2146N 08609W 3758 08035 0414 -220 //// 284025 026 022 000 01
162800 2144N 08608W 3761 08027 0414 -219 //// 286025 025 016 001 01
162830 2141N 08607W 3759 08033 0412 -218 //// 285025 026 015 001 01
162900 2138N 08605W 3757 08041 0414 -218 //// 283024 024 016 000 01
162930 2136N 08604W 3759 08033 0415 -218 //// 281024 024 016 001 01
163000 2133N 08603W 3755 08046 0416 -220 //// 278023 023 018 000 01
163030 2131N 08601W 3759 08035 0415 -220 //// 277023 023 018 000 01
163100 2128N 08600W 3762 08030 0415 -216 //// 274023 024 017 001 01
163130 2126N 08559W 3759 08033 0417 -215 //// 276022 022 013 001 01
163200 2123N 08557W 3759 08037 0415 -219 //// 277020 021 012 002 01
163230 2120N 08556W 3759 08039 0418 -220 //// 278020 020 019 002 01
163300 2118N 08554W 3759 08036 0417 -220 //// 277018 019 019 000 01
163330 2115N 08553W 3759 08038 0419 -220 //// 279018 019 013 001 01
163400 2113N 08552W 3759 08035 0418 -220 //// 281017 018 015 001 01
163430 2110N 08551W 3759 08040 0420 -220 //// 282016 017 017 000 05
163500 2107N 08549W 3758 08046 0420 -219 //// 286016 018 020 001 01
163530 2105N 08548W 3759 08038 0419 -220 //// 287016 017 019 001 01
163600 2102N 08547W 3759 08038 0418 -222 //// 290018 019 018 000 01
163630 2100N 08545W 3758 08044 0418 -225 //// 293019 019 017 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241646
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 15 20111024
163700 2057N 08544W 3758 08040 0418 -225 //// 292018 018 016 000 05
163730 2055N 08543W 3759 08037 0417 -225 //// 292017 018 017 000 01
163800 2052N 08541W 3759 08041 0417 -225 //// 295018 018 018 000 05
163830 2049N 08540W 3759 08038 0419 -221 //// 299017 018 020 000 01
163900 2047N 08539W 3759 08038 0420 -220 //// 302016 016 022 000 01
163930 2044N 08537W 3759 08043 0420 -218 //// 302015 015 023 000 01
164000 2042N 08536W 3759 08043 0422 -215 //// 301014 014 024 000 01
164030 2039N 08535W 3758 08039 0423 -215 //// 297014 014 022 000 01
164100 2036N 08533W 3759 08042 0423 -212 //// 292015 015 022 001 01
164130 2034N 08532W 3759 08043 0423 -210 //// 291015 015 024 001 01
164200 2031N 08531W 3759 08046 0425 -211 //// 293015 016 024 000 01
164230 2029N 08529W 3758 08046 0424 -215 //// 297015 015 024 001 01
164300 2026N 08528W 3758 08043 0423 -211 //// 293015 015 027 002 01
164330 2024N 08527W 3759 08051 0424 -210 //// 293016 016 026 001 01
164400 2021N 08525W 3759 08045 0423 -210 //// 294015 015 023 000 01
164430 2018N 08524W 3759 08043 0424 -210 //// 295013 014 023 001 01
164500 2016N 08523W 3758 08046 0425 -210 //// 300012 012 023 001 01
164530 2013N 08521W 3759 08044 0424 -210 //// 304011 012 022 000 01
164600 2011N 08520W 3759 08042 0423 -211 //// 307010 011 021 000 01
164630 2008N 08519W 3759 08043 0423 -212 //// 312010 011 022 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, Michelle in 2001 is definitely the kind of system that comes to mind with this one. There's always a chance Rina will take a more northerly track out of the Caribbean like Mitch did in 1998. But in my opinion, that is less likely. We'll see ...

[Vortex]

Per latest Hi-Res Visible an eye like feature *may* be trying to form....Speculative at this point, but clearly Rina is strengthening. I expect recon to find 50-55kt storm.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241656
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 16 20111024
164700 2006N 08517W 3759 08047 0423 -210 //// 308010 011 021 000 01
164730 2003N 08516W 3759 08045 0422 -207 //// 305011 012 022 000 01
164800 2001N 08515W 3758 08046 0422 -206 //// 307012 012 022 001 01
164830 1958N 08513W 3759 08040 0422 -209 //// 318010 011 022 000 01
164900 1955N 08512W 3759 08043 0422 -208 //// 320009 010 023 000 01
164930 1953N 08511W 3760 08045 0423 -205 //// 322010 011 022 001 01
165000 1951N 08509W 3758 08040 0423 -207 //// 319010 010 022 001 01
165030 1948N 08508W 3758 08049 0424 -210 //// 324007 007 022 000 01
165100 1945N 08507W 3759 08046 0425 -210 //// 336007 007 022 000 01
165130 1943N 08505W 3759 08042 0425 -207 //// 332007 007 021 001 01
165200 1940N 08504W 3758 08047 0425 -206 //// 338007 007 023 000 01
165230 1938N 08503W 3761 08039 0426 -205 //// 336007 008 022 001 01
165300 1935N 08501W 3758 08051 0427 -205 //// 339007 008 023 000 01
165330 1933N 08500W 3760 08049 0426 -205 //// 343008 009 024 000 01
165400 1930N 08458W 3758 08042 0425 -205 //// 343008 008 024 000 01
165430 1928N 08457W 3758 08044 0424 -204 //// 345009 009 024 000 01
165500 1926N 08455W 3758 08049 0427 -203 //// 355008 009 024 000 01
165530 1923N 08454W 3761 08048 0426 -201 //// 350009 010 023 001 01
165600 1921N 08452W 3759 08045 0426 -200 //// 343011 013 025 000 01
165630 1918N 08451W 3761 08041 0426 -200 -331 338014 015 024 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 241657
97779 16564 20193 84800 76200 34014 70813 /5758
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 05
SWS = 22 KTS
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241706
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 17 20111024
165700 1918N 08451W 3761 08041 0427 -199 -312 339014 015 026 000 00
165730 1913N 08448W 3766 08035 0425 -199 -313 343014 014 026 001 00
165800 1911N 08446W 3898 07778 0412 -179 -311 350012 013 026 001 00
165830 1908N 08445W 4025 07537 0398 -159 -308 005009 010 025 002 03
165900 1906N 08443W 4172 07267 0381 -147 -303 359016 018 /// /// 03
165930 1903N 08441W 4355 06943 0361 -121 -297 360018 019 /// /// 03
170000 1900N 08440W 4541 06624 0347 -095 -289 020017 018 /// /// 03
170030 1857N 08438W 4736 06298 0330 -072 -282 024019 020 /// /// 03
170100 1855N 08437W 4950 05959 0313 -056 -276 050021 022 /// /// 03
170130 1853N 08435W 5175 05607 0290 -045 -266 047018 019 /// /// 03
170200 1850N 08434W 5475 05162 0261 -025 -236 054019 021 /// /// 03
170230 1848N 08432W 5804 04691 0116 -003 -187 068017 018 /// /// 03
170300 1846N 08431W 6134 04252 0136 +019 -153 078016 018 /// /// 03
170330 1844N 08430W 6478 03797 0147 +035 -114 073019 020 /// /// 05
170400 1841N 08428W 6832 03361 //// +060 //// 066019 020 /// /// 05
170430 1839N 08427W 7214 02905 //// +088 //// 050019 020 /// /// 05
170500 1837N 08426W 7588 02481 //// +110 //// 050022 024 /// /// 05
170530 1835N 08425W 7886 02164 //// +123 //// 043026 028 /// /// 05
170600 1833N 08423W 8112 01928 //// +136 //// 039029 030 /// /// 05
170630 1831N 08422W 8282 01753 //// +147 //// 034029 029 /// /// 05
$$
;

Operational Altitude...

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

not saying it will happen, just asking a question but how long does it take to evacuate the keys?

48-72 hours - most (and I mean something like >80%) full-timers do not move even for a CAT5. Luckily most tourists boogie.

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS has Rina take a cyclonic loop and landfall in Belize as a hurricane.

[Dave]