ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241716
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 18 20111024
170700 1830N 08421W 8412 01620 //// +156 //// 032030 031 /// /// 05
170730 1828N 08420W 8429 01595 //// +157 //// 032031 031 /// /// 05
170800 1827N 08420W 8428 01598 //// +156 //// 028033 034 /// /// 05
170830 1825N 08419W 8429 01595 //// +153 //// 025033 034 /// /// 05
170900 1824N 08418W 8432 01594 //// +144 //// 023034 036 /// /// 05
170930 1822N 08417W 8416 01606 //// +141 //// 022037 038 /// /// 05
171000 1821N 08416W 8433 01591 //// +140 //// 021039 040 /// /// 05
171030 1819N 08415W 8430 01590 //// +135 //// 020039 040 /// /// 05
171100 1817N 08414W 8443 01573 //// +133 //// 013038 039 /// /// 05
171130 1816N 08413W 8419 01604 //// +134 //// 020032 035 /// /// 05
171200 1814N 08412W 8445 01579 //// +157 //// 049032 034 /// /// 05
171230 1813N 08411W 8431 01591 //// +156 //// 053033 033 /// /// 05
171300 1812N 08410W 8426 01593 //// +155 //// 052031 031 036 002 05
171330 1811N 08408W 8433 01586 //// +155 //// 049032 033 035 001 01
171400 1810N 08407W 8437 01581 //// +158 //// 053030 030 035 001 01
171430 1809N 08406W 8426 01591 0126 +158 +124 052031 031 034 001 01
171500 1807N 08405W 8429 01587 0127 +156 +124 049031 031 035 000 00
171530 1806N 08404W 8432 01585 0127 +153 +127 044032 033 035 002 00
171600 1805N 08402W 8426 01591 0126 +154 +128 040033 034 035 001 00
171630 1804N 08401W 8429 01586 0127 +154 +124 051032 033 035 002 00
$$
;

[xironman]

The GFS seemed to initialize poorly on Rina's strength.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 241717
97779 17130 20182 84100 15200 05033 16//9 /2520
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 06
SWS = 34 KTS
NW ENTRY POINT
SFC NOT VISIBLE
IN CLOUDS
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 241720
XXAA 74178 99182 70842 04584 99012 25218 01032 00105 24624 01036
92788 21630 01539 85519 17627 05032 88999 77999
31313 09608 81711
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 07
62626 SPL 1822N08421W 1713 MBL WND 01038 AEV 20802 DLM WND 02036
011844 WL150 01036 084 REL 1824N08420W 171149 SPG 1823N08421W 171
350 =
XXBB 74178 99182 70842 04584 00012 25218 11856 19031 22850 17627
33844 16024
21212 00012 01032 11984 01040 22943 01541 33898 02037 44875 02530
55855 05033 66844 05532
31313 09608 81711
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 07
62626 SPL 1822N08421W 1713 MBL WND 01038 AEV 20802 DLM WND 02036
011844 WL150 01036 084 REL 1824N08420W 171149 SPG 1823N08421W 171
350 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 0B 7

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 18.2N 84.2W
Location: 266 miles (429 km) to the SE (140°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (29.88 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 10° (from the N) 32 knots (37 mph)
1000mb 105m (344 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 10° (from the N) 36 knots (41 mph)
925mb 788m (2,585 ft) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 15° (from the NNE) 39 knots (45 mph)
850mb 1,519m (4,984 ft) 17.6°C (63.7°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F) 50° (from the NE) 32 knots (37 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 17:11Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 18.22N 84.21W
Splash Time: 17:13Z

Release Location: 18.24N 84.2W View map)
Release Time: 17:11:49Z

Splash Location: 18.23N 84.21W (
Splash Time: 17:13:50Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 10° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 38 knots (44 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 20° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 1011mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 10° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 36 knots (41 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1012mb (Surface) 25.2°C (77.4°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F)
856mb 19.0°C (66.2°F) 15.9°C (60.6°F)
850mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F)
844mb 16.0°C (60.8°F) 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (Surface) 10° (from the N) 32 knots (37 mph)
984mb 10° (from the N) 40 knots (46 mph)
943mb 15° (from the NNE) 41 knots (47 mph)
898mb 20° (from the NNE) 37 knots (43 mph)
875mb 25° (from the NNE) 30 knots (35 mph)
855mb 50° (from the NE) 33 knots (38 mph)
844mb 55° (from the NE) 32 knots (37 mph)


---



[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241726
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 19 20111024
171700 1803N 08400W 8429 01584 0124 +155 +115 053034 035 035 005 00
171730 1802N 08359W 8426 01588 0124 +157 +109 051035 036 035 005 00
171800 1801N 08358W 8429 01583 0124 +154 +117 047034 035 034 005 00
171830 1800N 08356W 8432 01578 0123 +154 +125 044035 036 035 006 00
171900 1758N 08355W 8430 01581 0123 +153 +125 040034 034 036 006 00
171930 1757N 08354W 8428 01583 0124 +148 +127 039035 036 038 007 00
172000 1756N 08353W 8433 01577 0122 +150 +130 042034 035 038 008 00
172030 1755N 08352W 8429 01578 0120 +150 +129 041034 035 038 006 00
172100 1754N 08350W 8428 01581 0117 +156 +128 042034 035 039 004 00
172130 1753N 08349W 8428 01578 0112 +161 +122 047037 039 037 004 00
172200 1752N 08348W 8426 01580 0112 +160 +117 046040 041 037 004 00
172230 1750N 08347W 8429 01578 0112 +160 +121 044039 041 036 005 00
172300 1749N 08346W 8430 01573 0104 +167 +124 043036 036 038 005 00
172330 1748N 08344W 8431 01571 0101 +171 +124 042035 035 038 006 00
172400 1747N 08343W 8425 01575 0100 +172 +126 043036 037 038 007 00
172430 1746N 08342W 8436 01563 0096 +177 +118 045037 039 038 004 00
172500 1745N 08341W 8428 01573 0094 +178 +116 039035 037 038 003 00
172530 1743N 08339W 8426 01571 0097 +171 +119 029037 038 039 003 00
172600 1742N 08338W 8429 01570 0092 +178 +116 028037 037 041 002 00
172630 1741N 08337W 8429 01569 0090 +179 +121 030038 038 040 003 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Vortex]

Recon fixes within the hour....I say theyll find 60mph with a pressure around 996.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241736
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 20 20111024
172700 1740N 08336W 8433 01563 0090 +176 +122 030034 035 041 003 00
172730 1739N 08334W 8432 01562 0091 +174 +117 030036 037 039 002 00
172800 1737N 08333W 8429 01566 0091 +173 +120 030037 037 040 002 00
172830 1736N 08332W 8429 01564 0092 +166 +125 032036 037 041 007 00
172900 1735N 08331W 8427 01562 0098 +149 +133 027036 036 042 009 00
172930 1734N 08329W 8431 01556 0091 +155 +132 023036 036 042 006 00
173000 1733N 08328W 8432 01551 0093 +148 +134 023038 039 043 010 00
173030 1731N 08327W 8426 01557 0096 +139 +138 020040 041 043 018 00
173100 1730N 08325W 8438 01541 0094 +134 //// 022043 047 050 013 01
173130 1729N 08324W 8430 01545 0089 +136 //// 026048 050 050 013 01
173200 1728N 08323W 8434 01537 0082 +142 //// 034047 048 051 014 01
173230 1726N 08322W 8431 01540 0077 +142 //// 034048 049 050 012 01
173300 1725N 08320W 8427 01535 0074 +139 //// 032048 049 050 012 01
173330 1724N 08319W 8439 01516 0070 +136 //// 033050 051 052 013 01
173400 1723N 08318W 8425 01525 0060 +141 //// 030055 059 053 014 01
173430 1722N 08317W 8443 01502 0058 +139 //// 034057 062 052 015 05
173500 1721N 08315W 8437 01505 0053 +135 //// 044058 059 059 018 01
173530 1719N 08314W 8434 01501 0055 +123 //// 034060 062 054 032 05
173600 1718N 08313W 8426 01502 0045 +125 //// 034061 063 061 029 01
173630 1717N 08312W 8430 01482 //// +132 //// 031063 067 064 029 01
$$
;

[Rainband]

Yes, Rina appears to be well on its way to hurricane strength in under 24 hrs. Probably 50 kts for the next advisory, 60kts this evening, 70 kts tomorrow. I'm forecasting Cat 2 by Wednesday. I think the NHC will indicate a little faster NE-ENE motion by Fri PM on its next advisory, taking Rina into western Cuba on Saturday. I still don't see much, if any, impact across Florida.

That's good news for us bad news for Cuba.

[lester]

recon found 63 kts FL, 61 kts SFMR with a pressure of 1004.5 and dropping

173600 1718N 08313W 8426 01502 0045 +125 //// 034061 063 061 029 01

[Dave]

[Vortex]

recon found 63 kts FL, 61 kts SFMR with a pressure of 1004.5 and dropping

173600 1718N 08313W 8426 01502 0045 +125 //// 034061 063 061 029 01

Not surprised, Hi-res also indicates the formation of an eye like feature.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I smell rapid intensification, the structure of the cyclone is beautiful especially on visible imagery:

[westwind]

This could be a hurricane already! Just look at the last recon data set.
flagged winds near hurricane force and the plane has not even reached the highest winds yet.

I also see an eye feature developing in visible imagery.

[Bocadude85]

If Rina does rapidly intensifty couldnt she move further north like the HWRF and GFDL were showing last night?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241746
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 21 20111024
173700 1716N 08311W 8440 01456 //// +135 //// 034066 068 065 030 01
173730 1715N 08309W 8419 01475 9986 +144 //// 049066 068 064 021 01
173800 1714N 08308W 8418 01468 9970 +165 //// 053046 051 062 012 01
173830 1713N 08307W 8447 01435 9961 +171 //// 054039 041 055 004 05
173900 1711N 08306W 8421 01448 9945 +172 +170 056038 040 042 003 00
173930 1710N 08305W 8424 01432 9928 +180 +166 054032 034 033 003 00
174000 1709N 08304W 8421 01427 9919 +182 +156 060024 029 026 000 03
174030 1707N 08303W 8433 01412 9916 +183 +154 046005 009 018 000 03
174100 1706N 08302W 8430 01417 9920 +181 +160 255009 011 015 000 00
174130 1705N 08301W 8432 01423 9923 +184 +156 236015 017 013 000 03
174200 1703N 08300W 8428 01431 9927 +189 +150 217020 021 013 000 00
174230 1702N 08259W 8431 01431 9926 +198 +148 215030 031 027 001 00
174300 1701N 08257W 8427 01441 9932 +200 +148 225038 043 036 000 00
174330 1700N 08256W 8433 01444 9944 +197 +149 228047 050 037 001 00
174400 1659N 08255W 8428 01456 9954 +194 +130 228048 049 035 000 00
174430 1658N 08254W 8429 01465 9964 +194 +126 229048 049 035 000 00
174500 1657N 08253W 8429 01471 9968 +201 +127 227052 054 037 000 03
174530 1655N 08251W 8429 01478 9970 +209 +125 226054 055 040 001 00
174600 1654N 08250W 8425 01490 9980 +209 +121 228052 054 041 002 00
174630 1653N 08249W 8433 01493 9998 +196 +130 227048 049 041 005 00
$$
;
991.6 mb; 068 kts FL; 065 kts SFMR

[Weatherboy1]

If Rina does rapidly intensifty couldnt she move further north like the HWRF and GFDL were showing last night?

Depends is my best answer. You would think a deeper storm would feel any weakness or pull from troughs to the north more than a shallow system. But Mitch was a very powerful storm in 1998 and he hung out in this general area for several days before finally getting pulled north and shunted to the NE over Florida. So tough to say

[CronkPSU]

If Rina does rapidly intensifty couldnt she move further north like the HWRF and GFDL were showing last night?

everytime we have a storm coming across the Atlantic and the recurve argument comes up ,the stronger, the more poleward it goes, I don't see why it would be different here