ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Just coming back from lunch, wow!!!!
The HWRF & GFDL may not be as crazy as we thought yesterday.

[latitude_20]

74.8 mph winds per VORTEX message.

[maxx9512]

Starting to get the look of a hurricane (eye included). Quite impressive on visable sat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Weatherboy1]

A hurricane already? Wow. This thing sure did spin up pretty quickly. At least it'll be easy to track now that an eye is emerging.

[Macrocane]

Now expected to reach major hurricane status:

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1815 UTC MON OCT 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.0W AT 24/1815Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.0W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 83.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.6N 84.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 83.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Vortex]

Now expected to reach major hurricane status:

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

and may do that overnight...

[cycloneye]

[latitude_20]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 241814
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Dave]

[Vortex]

IMO, I think she passes between the SE FL coast and Andros...Could be close quite close to SE FL though...Wouldnt be surprised if some decent bands pass through the keys and extreme SFL Friday...

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241816
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 24 20111024
180700 1605N 08159W 8429 01581 0104 +180 +116 218019 019 025 000 03
180730 1604N 08158W 8430 01579 0105 +176 +117 219018 019 027 000 00
180800 1603N 08157W 8431 01577 0106 +178 +116 216018 019 025 000 03
180830 1602N 08156W 8429 01581 0106 +180 +115 211019 020 024 000 00
180900 1601N 08155W 8430 01579 0106 +180 +115 209019 020 025 000 03
180930 1600N 08153W 8430 01578 0106 +176 +116 209019 019 026 000 03
181000 1558N 08152W 8430 01579 0109 +175 +116 214018 018 025 000 03
181030 1557N 08151W 8429 01582 0110 +174 +117 218018 018 026 000 03
181100 1556N 08150W 8430 01579 0109 +171 +118 217018 018 026 000 00
181130 1555N 08149W 8429 01580 0111 +170 +120 216018 018 024 000 03
181200 1554N 08148W 8430 01580 0112 +170 +121 215017 017 025 000 00
181230 1553N 08146W 8429 01581 0112 +169 +121 211016 017 025 000 03
181300 1551N 08145W 8436 01576 0112 +167 +120 207016 017 026 000 00
181330 1550N 08144W 8427 01582 0113 +168 +119 205015 016 025 000 00
181400 1549N 08143W 8430 01578 0114 +166 +121 203015 015 025 000 03
181430 1549N 08141W 8425 01587 0118 +165 +124 199014 014 /// /// 03
181500 1550N 08141W 8426 01584 0116 +164 +126 197013 014 023 000 03
181530 1552N 08141W 8428 01580 0113 +165 +127 194014 014 022 000 00
181600 1554N 08141W 8430 01579 0114 +165 +124 198015 015 022 000 00
181630 1555N 08141W 8433 01575 0111 +167 +122 193016 017 023 000 00
$$
;

[maxx9512]

Now with current developments does this change the input to the models and the end result?

[bg1]

Now expected to reach major hurricane status:

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

and may do that overnight...

Wow, I did not see that or the recent update coming. Exciting and terrifying next 3 days ahead, I think. Hopefully this misses Mexico.

Edited because I didn't know the projected path brought it near Mexico near peak intensity.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: below map

[Caribwxgirl]

Hurrican Rina says "Here's to all you who thought the season was over" Wow this season has really been something just a few days ago it looked like this system might die and here we are a hurricane!

[micktooth]

Wow, very similar to Wilma (Not an official forecast, just an amateur observation

[jinftl]

Forecast went from a 55kt tropical storm to a borderline Cat1/Cat 2 as Rina begins to move NE in 120 hours

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.


More Florida locations coming onboard the 120-hour probability of tropical storm force winds

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

[WYNweather]

I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS AROUND 65 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING RINA THE 6TH
HURRICANE OF SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK WAS
REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 17.1N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 83.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.8N 84.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.0N 86.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Dave]