ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#621 Postby maxx9512 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:23 pm

And this on the anniversary of Wilma's landfall here in SWFLA. Interesting!
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#622 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:23 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 241817
97779 18144 20158 81700 15200 20015 17122 /2510
42425
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 12
SWS = 25 KTS
SE EXIT PT
;
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#623 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:28 pm

I think the difference between Wilma and Rina is the likely "angle of attack," for lack of a better word. Wilma was more a NE tracked, whereas with Rina, when she makes the turn it should be a pretty hard turn -- more ENE or even possibly E. So I think it's more likely she turns through the straits of FL or even over Cuba rather on a ENE heading. Just one amateur's opinion, of course. But so far, I'm not incredibly concerned here in Palm Beach County -- vs. in 2005, when Wilma's eye went over my house!
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#624 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:29 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 241826
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 25 20111024
181700 1557N 08141W 8428 01581 0108 +171 +119 191017 018 023 000 00
181730 1559N 08141W 8429 01581 0112 +170 +120 197015 015 022 000 00
181800 1601N 08141W 8429 01580 0111 +169 +120 203017 017 022 000 00
181830 1602N 08141W 8429 01581 0111 +170 +120 206017 017 021 000 00
181900 1604N 08141W 8430 01579 0112 +170 +120 207017 017 022 000 00
181930 1606N 08141W 8432 01578 0112 +170 +120 210017 018 020 000 03
182000 1608N 08141W 8428 01581 0110 +170 +119 213018 019 022 000 00
182030 1610N 08141W 8429 01581 0108 +170 +119 208019 019 022 000 00
182100 1611N 08141W 8429 01581 0108 +173 +118 208020 020 020 000 00
182130 1613N 08141W 8429 01579 0108 +174 +118 206020 020 021 000 00
182200 1615N 08141W 8429 01581 0108 +174 +119 206020 020 020 000 03
182230 1617N 08141W 8429 01580 0107 +175 +118 206020 021 020 000 00
182300 1619N 08142W 8429 01579 0107 +175 +117 203021 022 022 000 03
182330 1620N 08142W 8432 01575 0107 +175 +117 202022 022 020 001 00
182400 1622N 08142W 8428 01580 0107 +175 +116 201022 022 019 000 00
182430 1624N 08142W 8432 01575 0106 +175 +118 200022 022 020 000 03
182500 1626N 08142W 8430 01578 0105 +175 +119 200021 022 019 000 00
182530 1628N 08142W 8429 01577 0105 +174 +120 200021 022 017 000 00
182600 1630N 08142W 8432 01575 0104 +170 +123 197020 021 018 000 03
182630 1631N 08142W 8430 01574 0105 +170 +124 197021 022 018 000 00
$$
;
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#625 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:29 pm

That was quick. Wow.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#626 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:33 pm

Tireman4 wrote:That was quick. Wow.

I know. It looked like a 40mph ball at 8am, and now its a full fledged hurricane. Scary.
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#627 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:33 pm

Image
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#628 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:35 pm

WYNweather wrote:I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..



wilma postponed it, not too many people were in a boat show mood after that anyway...preps have been underway for several weeks already for this years show
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#629 Postby jinftl » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:35 pm

Given the TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential - very warm water to a very deep depth - high octane fuel for storms) in the NW Caribbean....that was just waiting to be tapped into all season....from an invest to a cat 1 in 24 hours...impressive
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#630 Postby Cranica » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:37 pm

micktooth wrote:Wow, very similar to Wilma (Not an official forecast, just an amateur observation :-)
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_ar ... 200522.gif


Very similar pattern - nice favorable conditions over the NW carib in late october with a slow-developing system and a huge trough to the north. October Caribbean storms get nasty a lot, but this one's really impressive - with Wilma we at least saw it coming.
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#631 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:38 pm

Well, I wasn't expecting that...
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#632 Postby MWatkins » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:39 pm

Quick look at the 12Z hurricane models:

HWRF backs the strengthening trend we're seeing and has a moderate, but weakening tropical storm making landfall in SW Florida in 108 hours

GFDL can be discounted because it keeps the system weak and broad throughout, taking Rina into the Yucatan as a weak TS.

Will be interesting to see what the Euro does...but GFS also keeps it too weak.

MW
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#633 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:39 pm

Live 15 frame visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Doesn't look like Rina is even close to done strengthening.

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#634 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 241836
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 26 20111024
182700 1633N 08142W 8430 01574 0105 +170 +124 196021 022 018 000 00
182730 1635N 08142W 8430 01574 0105 +167 +124 198021 022 019 000 00
182800 1637N 08142W 8429 01574 0104 +168 +123 191021 022 018 000 03
182830 1639N 08142W 8430 01572 0104 +170 +123 190023 023 020 000 00
182900 1641N 08142W 8429 01575 0103 +170 +123 187023 023 019 000 00
182930 1642N 08142W 8429 01572 0101 +171 +124 183024 024 021 000 00
183000 1644N 08142W 8430 01570 0100 +174 +124 180024 024 021 000 00
183030 1646N 08142W 8429 01573 0098 +174 +123 177024 025 022 000 00
183100 1648N 08142W 8430 01571 0098 +175 +122 174025 025 024 000 00
183130 1650N 08142W 8430 01571 0098 +172 +125 170025 025 023 000 30
183200 1652N 08142W 8428 01572 0099 +172 +126 171026 026 022 000 00
183230 1653N 08142W 8429 01571 0098 +173 +124 170026 027 024 000 00
183300 1655N 08142W 8429 01571 0097 +175 +123 168026 027 024 000 03
183330 1657N 08142W 8429 01571 0096 +177 +119 168026 027 024 000 03
183400 1659N 08142W 8431 01571 0096 +176 +117 164026 027 026 000 00
183430 1701N 08142W 8430 01571 0096 +175 +121 163027 027 025 000 00
183500 1703N 08142W 8430 01571 0097 +175 +122 164027 027 025 000 00
183530 1705N 08142W 8430 01572 0098 +175 +122 164026 026 024 000 00
183600 1707N 08143W 8430 01571 0098 +172 +125 163025 026 024 000 00
183630 1708N 08143W 8429 01571 0099 +170 +127 160025 025 024 000 00
$$
;
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#635 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:39 pm

Category-4/5 looks probable IMO given the sert-up and the slow motion. Worst case would be for it to go further east and strike land, could have a Paloma type situation if that were to occur.

Typically these systems go east of the forecast track, esp later in the season.
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#636 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:40 pm

18z model runs are going to be critical. I think we have a whole new ballgame.
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#637 Postby Vortex » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:41 pm

Deep convective bursting taking place right now over the eye...should give way to a steep pressure fall over the next few hours...
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#638 Postby MWatkins » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:43 pm

MWatkins wrote:Quick look at the 12Z hurricane models:

HWRF backs the strengthening trend we're seeing and has a moderate, but weakening tropical storm making landfall in SW Florida in 108 hours

GFDL can be discounted because it keeps the system weak and broad throughout, taking Rina into the Yucatan as a weak TS.

Will be interesting to see what the Euro does...but GFS also keeps it too weak.

MW


Ignore the GFDL comment, looking at yesterdays run (my page didn't update!)

GFDL also takes a weakened Rina across FL...a little south of the HWRF.

MW
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Re:

#639 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:43 pm

AdamFirst wrote:18z model runs are going to be critical. I think we have a whole new ballgame.


Same ball game, just a stronger hurricane. The steering currents aren't changing.
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#640 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:43 pm

This will be a very interesting one to watch I feel in the next 24hrs, a major is highly likely and I'd certainly not be the least bit surprised if it goes a fair bit stronger then 105kts, IF I were a betting man, I'd go with 125-135kts.

With October NW Caribbean storms, best to go for the top end estimate usually, esp in La nina years, they nearly always produce strong majors in this location!
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