ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

[Evil Jeremy]

I slept in today and wake p to a rapidly strengthening Rina. Wouldn't be surprised if we end the day with a Cat 2. RI? Yucatan stall? Upcoming cold front? I'm seeing flashes of Wilma here.

[Dave]

CORRECTED VDM OB 08

000
URNT12 KNHC 241832 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 24/17:40:40Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
083 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1346 m
D. 65 kt
E. 319 deg 11 nm
F. 052 deg 68 kt
G. 320 deg 10 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 14 C / 1460 m
J. 19 C / 1521 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 17:37:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 135 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241846
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 27 20111024
183700 1710N 08143W 8430 01569 0100 +170 +128 160025 026 024 000 00
183730 1712N 08143W 8430 01569 0100 +170 +129 159026 026 025 000 03
183800 1714N 08143W 8430 01571 0100 +170 +129 157026 026 025 000 00
183830 1716N 08143W 8429 01572 0099 +172 +125 154027 028 025 000 00
183900 1718N 08143W 8429 01572 0100 +170 +126 153028 028 024 000 00
183930 1720N 08143W 8429 01571 0100 +170 +125 150026 027 025 000 00
184000 1721N 08143W 8429 01571 0100 +170 +125 147027 027 025 000 03
184030 1723N 08143W 8429 01571 0101 +170 +122 147028 029 026 000 00
184100 1725N 08143W 8430 01570 0101 +170 +122 147029 030 025 000 03
184130 1727N 08143W 8430 01570 0102 +170 +121 148029 029 025 000 00
184200 1729N 08143W 8431 01570 0102 +170 +122 148029 029 024 000 00
184230 1731N 08143W 8429 01574 0102 +170 +123 147029 029 023 000 03
184300 1733N 08143W 8429 01573 0102 +170 +123 147029 029 022 000 00
184330 1734N 08143W 8429 01573 0101 +170 +122 145029 029 022 000 00
184400 1736N 08143W 8429 01573 0102 +170 +124 146029 030 023 000 00
184430 1738N 08143W 8429 01573 0102 +170 +124 147028 029 022 000 00
184500 1740N 08143W 8429 01573 0103 +170 +126 142028 029 022 000 03
184530 1742N 08143W 8430 01573 0102 +165 +129 139030 030 022 000 00
184600 1744N 08143W 8433 01570 0103 +167 +129 137031 031 023 000 03
184630 1745N 08143W 8429 01574 0103 +168 +129 137031 031 023 000 03
$$
;

[T'Bonz]

$*#@!

I'm due to drive up from FLL to Orlando on Friday with a return on Sunday. NOT in the mood for an inconvenient hurricane.

I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..

[MWatkins]

18z model runs are going to be critical. I think we have a whole new ballgame.

Same ball game, just a stronger hurricane. The steering currents aren't changing.

Steering currents won't change as long as you use the GFS...because that's what produced that track forecast in the first place.

That is a lot of confidence in a 5 day upper level forecast from the GFS model (and one that has been verifying horribly at 500MB lately).

A stronger initial system will feel a weakness in the mid-level ridge vs. the weaker model storm the GFS is forecasting. There is still some concern that Rina will get further north before the flow flattens out.

Wouldn't expect a hurricane hitting the US but could very well see a tropical storm approaching south Florida as the GFDL/HWRF models suggest.

The point being: even IF the currents verify as the GFS suggests, the timing and position of Rina are not certain!!!

So much for communicating forecast uncertainty, eh?

MW

[T'Bonz]

When does the Euro come out again?

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD that has plenty of missions for the next two days.

Code: Select all

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM RINA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
       A. 25/1800Z                A. 26/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0418A RINA        B. NOAA2 0518A RINA
       C. 25/1500Z                C. 25/2000Z
       D. 17.7N 84.3W             D. 17.8N 84.8W
       E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2100Z    E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71    FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
       A. 26/0600Z                A. 26/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0618A RINA        B. NOAA2 0718A RINA
       C. 26/0300Z                C. 26/0800Z
       D. 17.9N 85.2W             D. 18.1N 85.7W
       E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z    E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
       AND A P-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS.



[Dave]

[KWT]

I still suspect that this will end up a Cujba threat rather then a S.Florida threat but the truth is its too early to tell.

Needs to be watched closely, can't rule out a decent TS/weak hurricane risk, much is going to depend on how the jet lines up really...

[jinftl]

Update from crownweather.com:

"Very quick afternoon update to let you all know that Rina has and still is rapidly strengthening. Reconnaissance aircraft found that it is now a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane. Additionally, visible satellite imagery clearly shows an eye trying to form this afternoon.
Other than that, I have no other changes to my forecast thinking from this morning. I still think that Rina will impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel, on Thursday night into Friday; except now, I think Rina will be a lot stronger and those of you in Cancun and Cozumel should be prepared for a Category 3 hurricane. After that I am forecasting that Rina will turn to the northeast and potentially impact the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday as a Category 1 or possibly a low end Category 2 hurricane. The northwestern Bahamas may also be affected by a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday before it becomes extra-tropical next Monday.

All interests across the western Caribbean, including those of you in Belize, Cancun, Cozumel, western Cuba, should monitor the progress of this storm very closely. Additionally, everyone in the Florida Keys and south Florida should closely monitor the progress of Rina over the next few days."

[AdamFirst]

When does the Euro come out again?

It came out an hour ago with the old, pre-hurricane data. It disintegrated the system after 96 hours.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241856
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 28 20111024
184700 1747N 08143W 8428 01574 0103 +168 +132 138030 031 023 000 00
184730 1749N 08143W 8436 01567 0104 +166 +137 136030 030 020 001 00
184800 1751N 08143W 8428 01575 0102 +170 +137 138030 030 022 001 00
184830 1753N 08143W 8429 01573 0102 +169 +140 137029 030 023 001 00
184900 1755N 08144W 8426 01576 0100 +173 +136 136030 030 024 000 00
184930 1757N 08144W 8428 01575 0102 +170 +142 138028 029 028 001 00
185000 1758N 08144W 8426 01577 0104 +166 +141 126028 028 028 001 00
185030 1800N 08144W 8425 01578 0103 +168 +139 125029 029 026 000 00
185100 1802N 08144W 8430 01573 0103 +169 +136 126032 033 024 000 00
185130 1804N 08144W 8430 01573 0103 +171 +130 125031 031 024 000 00
185200 1805N 08144W 8426 01578 0104 +169 +132 125030 031 024 000 03
185230 1807N 08144W 8427 01578 0104 +168 +136 126030 031 024 000 00
185300 1809N 08144W 8433 01572 0103 +175 +130 121031 032 024 000 00
185330 1811N 08144W 8431 01572 0101 +175 +130 120032 034 025 000 00
185400 1813N 08144W 8432 01574 0104 +170 +134 119033 033 027 000 00
185430 1814N 08144W 8401 01607 0109 +162 +150 120031 035 030 009 00
185500 1816N 08144W 8436 01569 0117 +149 +142 118033 034 029 008 00
185530 1818N 08144W 8426 01581 0109 +163 +141 119031 031 026 000 00
185600 1820N 08144W 8430 01577 0110 +165 +140 117031 031 026 000 03
185630 1821N 08144W 8431 01580 0110 +167 +138 117032 032 /// /// 03
$$
;

[MWatkins]

Looking at the public Euro now. Almost completely dropped the storm and very weak with the cyclone...have to discount that and look to the upper pattern forecast.

The upper pattern is little different than the GFS with a little more mid-level ridging to the east of FL at 120 hours, but it's hard to tell in the low res public fields.

MW

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 241859
97779 18564 20183 81700 15200 12031 17149 /2508
41025
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 13
SWS = 25 KTS
NE ENTRY PT
;

[marciacubed]

I I cannot believe the timing of this storm. It is parents weekend at FSU. There are going to be many parents traveling on Friday and returning on Sunday. I am looking forward to seeing my son I hope Rina doesn't make me miss seeing him!!!

[Dave]

Cycloneye, I will be gone Tuesday from approx 8 am till 4 pm...have to make a run to Berea KY, about 3 hrs each way, but will try to pick up anything in the evening.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241906
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 29 20111024
185700 1822N 08146W 8432 01574 0106 +165 +136 113030 031 023 001 03
185730 1822N 08148W 8426 01578 0107 +165 +134 116031 032 024 001 00
185800 1822N 08150W 8429 01575 0108 +165 +132 113032 032 025 000 00
185830 1822N 08152W 8432 01573 0108 +161 +138 112032 033 025 000 00
185900 1821N 08154W 8410 01592 0104 +163 +147 106033 035 028 017 00
185930 1821N 08156W 8435 01570 0118 +143 //// 109026 029 039 018 01
190000 1820N 08158W 8418 01585 0106 +163 +150 119029 033 041 007 03
190030 1820N 08159W 8430 01574 0102 +170 +141 119029 029 019 001 03
190100 1819N 08201W 8424 01580 0102 +170 +142 124032 032 013 000 03
190130 1818N 08202W 8434 01570 0102 +170 +142 123031 032 016 000 03
190200 1817N 08204W 8429 01574 0105 +164 +144 118030 030 018 000 00
190230 1815N 08205W 8434 01571 0106 +165 +143 117031 031 018 000 00
190300 1814N 08206W 8429 01574 0102 +170 +140 119030 030 019 000 03
190330 1813N 08207W 8431 01572 0102 +170 +137 118030 030 019 000 00
190400 1812N 08209W 8429 01574 0103 +165 +138 117030 030 021 000 00
190430 1811N 08210W 8419 01583 0102 +167 +146 117029 031 021 000 00
190500 1809N 08211W 8432 01569 0102 +165 +147 117028 029 022 000 03
190530 1808N 08212W 8430 01572 0103 +165 +145 118028 029 022 000 00
190600 1807N 08214W 8430 01571 0101 +166 +140 120029 029 025 000 03
190630 1806N 08215W 8429 01572 0100 +168 +137 121030 030 024 000 00
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow, had quite a few days and night of cool weather here in North Fla, almost forgot cane season was still in effect. You guys down south in Mexico, as well as South Fla take care!