ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#701 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:10 pm

Here is what the Miami NWS has to say about Rina after stating the long-term forecast will be highly dependent on this feature:

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
FOR HURRICANE RINA...THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WITH A
35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM...AND THE STORM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
INTO A HURRICANE. SO MODEL RUNS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
ACROSS THE GULF ON FRIDAY...AND STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALMOST ALL OF THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STORM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR DISSIPATES
THE STORM AS SHEAR INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK. SO ATTM...IT IS
TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT IMPACTS...IF ANY...THERE WILL BE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THIS STORM.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#702 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:14 pm

This is this afternoon discussion of Hurricane Rina by Dr Jeff Masters.

Rina is now a hurricane, just 21 hours after becoming a tropical depression. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 75 mph--Category 1 hurricane strength--at 1:40 pm EDT in the north eyewall of Rina, using their SFMR surface wind instrument. Winds at flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at 78 mph, which typically translates to surface winds of 62 mph. On their second pass through the eye at 3:30 pm EDT, the winds were about 5 mph less, but the central pressure had fallen by two millibars, to 989 mb. Visible satellite loops show that Rina now has an eye, and the storm is steadily expanding in size and developing an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's southeast side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found an elliptical eyewall that had a gap in it during their 3:30 pm eye penetration. The aircraft measured a temperature difference of 6°C between the eye and the region outside the eye, which is difficult to get unless an eyewall is on its way to completion. Rina will need to complete its eyewall if it is to intensify into a major hurricane. Given the fact wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday, Rina has a 2-day period to close off an eyewall and intensify, and it will probably reach Category 3 or Category 4 strength by Wednesday. On Wednesday, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday or Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, and now that the hurricane is expected to be a Category 2 or stronger storm, the chances for Rina to make it farther north and affect the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida have increased. The latest 8 am EDT runs of the GFDL and HWRF models both predict that Rina will pass through the Yucatan Channel on Thursday and make landfall on Friday in the Florida Keys or extreme Southwest Florida, south of Naples. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict a weaker storm, and keep Rina trapped in the Caribbean. I think it is more likely that Rina will pass through the Keys. If Rina does make it to the Keys, it would likely be as a tropical storm, since wind shear, dry air, and possible land interaction with Western Cuba and Mexico would potentially knock down the storm's strength. Heavy rains from Rina should begin affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, and extreme Western Cuba on Wednesday. Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October bring to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also performed such a feat in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced. Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.

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#703 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:17 pm

Image

Can't get the centers to clear out for some reason today.
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Re:

#704 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:19 pm

WYNweather wrote:I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..


The year Wilma hit the boat show it decimated an entire industry. Yachts don't come near storms so... It isn't just the big boys that lose (not like they'll hurt at all), its the vendors and the littler boats that would feel it if that show doesn't happen - and happen outstandingly.
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#705 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:19 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242016
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 36 20111024
200700 1548N 08325W 8430 01565 0093 +173 +122 298032 034 044 001 03
200730 1547N 08323W 8432 01563 0087 +183 +116 294028 028 045 000 03
200800 1547N 08322W 8430 01564 0085 +184 +116 292029 029 044 001 03
200830 1546N 08320W 8429 01565 0083 +185 +115 291030 030 043 000 03
200900 1545N 08318W 8428 01565 0085 +185 +114 290031 031 042 000 03
200930 1544N 08316W 8430 01565 0084 +188 +114 286028 030 043 000 03
201000 1544N 08314W 8429 01565 0082 +188 +112 287026 027 042 000 03
201030 1543N 08312W 8429 01565 0080 +190 +112 290025 027 042 000 03
201100 1542N 08311W 8431 01562 0077 +198 +109 288024 024 042 001 03
201130 1542N 08309W 8430 01564 0074 +202 +107 290025 026 043 000 03
201200 1541N 08307W 8428 01566 0073 +205 +108 293027 027 042 000 03
201230 1540N 08305W 8430 01563 0075 +200 +109 296028 028 041 000 03
201300 1540N 08303W 8430 01564 0079 +193 +110 299027 027 040 000 03
201330 1539N 08302W 8428 01565 0080 +195 +110 301028 029 039 000 03
201400 1539N 08300W 8426 01571 0079 +198 +108 298028 029 /// /// 03
201430 1541N 08300W 8433 01561 0077 +197 +109 299026 026 036 000 03
201500 1542N 08300W 8429 01563 0078 +192 +111 297026 026 040 000 03
201530 1544N 08300W 8429 01563 0078 +193 +111 289026 027 037 000 00
201600 1545N 08300W 8433 01560 0076 +196 +110 286027 027 040 000 00
201630 1547N 08300W 8429 01564 0076 +196 +111 285028 028 041 000 03
$$
;
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#706 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:22 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 242016
97779 20134 20157 83000 15200 30026 19118 /2494
42840
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 18
SWS = 39 KTS
SOUTH ENTRY PT
;
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#707 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:25 pm

Image
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#708 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:29 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242026
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 37 20111024
201700 1549N 08300W 8428 01565 0076 +194 +114 285030 031 040 000 03
201730 1550N 08300W 8429 01561 0077 +190 +115 283032 033 040 000 03
201800 1552N 08300W 8429 01563 0080 +183 +117 282032 033 040 000 03
201830 1553N 08300W 8430 01559 0084 +180 +117 280034 035 041 000 03
201900 1555N 08300W 8431 01558 0083 +180 +113 283034 035 042 000 03
201930 1557N 08300W 8427 01562 0084 +178 +112 284035 036 041 000 03
202000 1558N 08300W 8430 01558 0083 +175 +117 279035 036 039 001 03
202030 1600N 08300W 8430 01559 0082 +179 +118 279033 034 040 000 00
202100 1601N 08300W 8430 01559 0081 +180 +120 276033 033 039 000 00
202130 1603N 08300W 8428 01559 0081 +175 +124 275031 032 038 000 03
202200 1604N 08300W 8432 01555 0080 +175 +125 278032 034 039 000 03
202230 1606N 08300W 8434 01550 0081 +172 +126 280035 035 040 000 00
202300 1608N 08300W 8425 01561 0080 +171 +127 279034 034 040 000 00
202330 1609N 08300W 8433 01551 0078 +175 +125 278031 032 041 000 00
202400 1611N 08300W 8428 01554 0077 +173 +127 280032 033 041 001 00
202430 1612N 08300W 8427 01554 0075 +175 +131 277033 034 041 001 03
202500 1614N 08300W 8436 01545 0069 +182 +130 278032 032 041 001 00
202530 1616N 08300W 8428 01554 0072 +176 +129 279031 033 041 000 00
202600 1617N 08300W 8425 01555 0072 +174 +129 278033 034 041 000 00
202630 1619N 08300W 8433 01544 0074 +171 +129 278036 037 043 000 03
$$
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Re: ATL: RINA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#709 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:33 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I have next to no time to look at anything before going out to the field in a few hours...so I'll just throw a quick prediction out there.

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Looking at IR/Vis, the center appears to be on the SE side of the deep convection, but that convection is expanding southeastward, and I expect it to continue to do so. Recon may find a 45 or 50 knot tropical storm when they go out later on today.

As far as RI goes...if the center is where I think it is, it won't occur right away. The storm still needs to build itself up...but that could occur in a hurry. I think the chances of RI starting (30 knots or greater in a 24 hour period) within the next 24 hours are probably close to 70% or 75%. Granted, that means that RI can occur anytime within the next 48 hours, as long as it is within that 48 hour window. Given it is 8 am now, the forecast ends at 8 am the 26th (due to the mandatory "24 hour period"). If it does occur, it most likely won't start until later on tonight or tomorrow.

Upsides: High heat content, shear appears to be low, strong, blossoming convection, nice outflow channel setting up
Downsides: Dry air intrusions possible, instability lower than normal, convection currently displaced some to the NE, possible effects from land interactions

Well, I saw a hook this morning, but it didn't look lined up with the center...I still don't think that that is the main event as far as RI is concerned. I cannot view any products, though, because I'm on my phone. I could see RI ending in easily a Cat 4. Looking for that potentially later tonight into tomorrow.

This did happen a little faster than I thought, but not really surprising. Time to hang on to your hats!
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#710 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:34 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#711 Postby Fyzn94 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:34 pm

I just came home from school to see the unexpected. Dear LORD that was fast!!!
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon Discussion

#712 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:35 pm

A new mission was added to todays TCPOD this afternoon and will be the gulfstream jet that will fly on Tuesday to sample the upper enviroment that for sure will be a good feed for the models.

ADDED: REMARK GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z.

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Re: Re:

#713 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:35 pm

dolebot_Broward_NW wrote:
WYNweather wrote:I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..


The year Wilma hit the boat show it decimated an entire industry. Yachts don't come near storms so... It isn't just the big boys that lose (not like they'll hurt at all), its the vendors and the littler boats that would feel it if that show doesn't happen - and happen outstandingly.


Also, Fantasy Fest this week through the weekend in Key West..the Keys are going to be packed. An evacuation would be a nightmare

Not good timing for something like this to happen. You would expect the season for Florida is pretty much done by Halloween.

I am rooting for it to get ripped apart or pushed south of Florida.

How confident are we the 50K+ knot Jet stream will be in the SE GOM and over Southern Florida by end of week?

Looks like maybe a Wilma setup unfolding again. The thought was Wilma would get sheared apart on its approach to Southern Florida ahead of a strong cold front/jet but look what happened.
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:40 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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#714 Postby Vortex » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:36 pm

HWRF has done extremely well so far with Rina. In fact, both GFDL and HWRF now have Rina crossing South Florida...
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#715 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:39 pm

Wasn't it the HWRF that got an upgrade this past couple weeks? Or was that the NAM?
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#716 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:39 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242036
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 38 20111024
202700 1620N 08300W 8426 01551 0074 +169 +128 273037 038 044 000 03
202730 1622N 08300W 8431 01546 0073 +168 +130 271036 038 043 000 03
202800 1624N 08300W 8429 01546 0075 +165 +134 277033 036 043 000 00
202830 1625N 08300W 8424 01550 0073 +164 +137 274040 041 043 000 03
202900 1627N 08300W 8433 01539 0082 +144 //// 276042 043 044 004 01
202930 1628N 08300W 8439 01529 0079 +143 //// 282040 042 051 015 05
203000 1630N 08300W 8424 01543 0080 +139 //// 266036 040 053 018 01
203030 1632N 08300W 8424 01540 0077 +138 //// 263036 041 053 019 01
203100 1633N 08300W 8432 01532 0070 +148 //// 269037 038 050 014 05
203130 1635N 08300W 8420 01542 0059 +165 +140 282041 043 040 000 00
203200 1636N 08300W 8423 01537 0054 +169 +139 283044 045 034 000 03
203230 1638N 08300W 8426 01530 0055 +161 +143 279044 045 035 002 03
203300 1639N 08300W 8426 01530 0059 +151 +144 267045 048 039 004 00
203330 1641N 08300W 8429 01525 0060 +145 +141 266048 049 038 001 00
203400 1643N 08300W 8432 01520 0048 +159 +140 264045 046 038 001 03
203430 1644N 08300W 8426 01519 0045 +155 +143 267047 048 042 001 03
203500 1646N 08300W 8432 01507 0034 +162 +154 273045 045 041 002 00
203530 1648N 08300W 8429 01505 0025 +166 +152 272045 047 045 000 03
203600 1649N 08300W 8422 01505 0018 +166 +151 271048 049 044 001 03
203630 1651N 08300W 8436 01485 0000 +178 +165 276053 056 047 000 03
$$
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Re:

#717 Postby caneseddy » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:39 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Wasn't it the HWRF that got an upgrade this past couple weeks? Or was that the NAM?


NAM
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#718 Postby Vortex » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:39 pm

Once the eyewall completes this evening/overnight we should see the next potential significant strengthening trend...
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#719 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:40 pm

How confident are we the Jet stream will be in the SE GOM and over Southern Florida by end of week?


We will know a lot more after Tuesday afternoon's gulfstream jet mission that will sample the upper enviroment.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#720 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:43 pm

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED
ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST
BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.

RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE
DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT
REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...
SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE
SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF
THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES
BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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