ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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gatorcane
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#721 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:44 pm

Looks like the NHC is bending it more E to ENE at the end at the 5pm advisory....hopefully it never gets out of the Caribbean...and fizzles
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#722 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:44 pm

From 5 PM EDT discussion:

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#723 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:45 pm

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#724 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:46 pm

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Re: Re:

#725 Postby WYNweather » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:47 pm

gatorcane wrote:
dolebot_Broward_NW wrote:
WYNweather wrote:I think I just heard screams from Fort Lauderdale. This is going to be interesting with Boat show this week..


The year Wilma hit the boat show it decimated an entire industry. Yachts don't come near storms so... It isn't just the big boys that lose (not like they'll hurt at all), its the vendors and the littler boats that would feel it if that show doesn't happen - and happen outstandingly.


Also, Fantasy Fest this week through the weekend in Key West..the Keys are going to be packed. An evacuation would be a nightmare

Not good timing for something like this to happen. You would expect the season for Florida is pretty much done by Halloween.

I am rooting for it to get ripped apart or pushed south of Florida.

How confident are we the 50K+ knot Jet stream will be in the SE GOM and over Southern Florida by end of week?

Looks like maybe a Wilma setup unfolding again. The thought was Wilma would get sheared apart on its approach to Southern Florida ahead of a strong cold front/jet but look what happened.


Not changing plans yet 
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#726 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:From 5 PM EDT discussion:

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.


Probably because all the 12z runs are trash. 11 PM advisory will be better, but 5 AM will be the most telling (when KING EURO and the GFS run fully)
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#727 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:49 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242046
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 39 20111024
203700 1652N 08300W 8424 01488 9987 +182 +170 275055 055 047 000 03
203730 1654N 08300W 8434 01469 9977 +186 +153 273056 057 050 001 00
203800 1655N 08300W 8436 01456 9969 +179 +161 275059 063 052 004 00
203830 1657N 08300W 8436 01445 9959 +173 +164 276067 070 055 009 00
203900 1659N 08300W 8441 01423 9941 +173 +168 271064 074 060 008 00
203930 1700N 08300W 8423 01427 9917 +182 +171 256056 059 061 005 03
204000 1702N 08300W 8428 01405 9895 +195 +169 247051 054 058 003 03
204030 1704N 08300W 8419 01407 9878 +210 +153 242037 041 037 001 03
204100 1705N 08300W 8433 01385 9868 +216 +141 236025 029 023 000 00
204130 1707N 08301W 8430 01383 9863 +217 +136 217015 017 011 000 03
204200 1708N 08302W 8437 01375 9861 +215 +139 218007 010 009 000 00
204230 1708N 08302W 8437 01375 9863 +209 +141 291003 005 010 000 00
204300 1710N 08305W 8426 01387 9870 +200 +140 011010 014 015 001 03
204330 1711N 08306W 8434 01380 9874 +196 +141 032016 019 020 001 00
204400 1712N 08307W 8429 01391 9882 +189 +146 041021 022 023 001 00
204430 1713N 08309W 8422 01402 9892 +184 +148 051028 032 032 001 03
204500 1715N 08310W 8436 01397 9903 +181 +154 046040 042 050 005 03
204530 1716N 08311W 8419 01427 9921 +169 +166 050054 063 065 013 03
204600 1717N 08312W 8444 01418 //// +149 //// 045069 073 062 039 05
204630 1718N 08313W 8437 01439 //// +140 //// 040065 066 064 040 05
$$
;
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#728 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:53 pm

000
UZNT13 KNHC 242048
XXAA 74218 99171 70831 04573 99987 26618 33504 00617 ///// /////
92571 22605 05001 85309 21856 26505 88999 77999
31313 09608 82042
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 1715N08306W 2044 MBL WND 34502 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
003 986843 WL150 32503 084 REL 1715N08306W 204225 SPG 1715N08306W
204335 =
XXBB 74218 99171 70831 04573 00987 26618 11902 21406 22850 21856
33843 21057
21212 00987 33504 11922 34001 22868 29508 33856 26006 44843 28003
31313 09608 82042
61616 AF306 0218A RINA OB 20
62626 EYE SPL 1715N08306W 2044 MBL WND 34502 AEV 20802 DLM WND 30
003 986843 WL150 32503 084 REL 1715N08306W 204225 SPG 1715N08306W
204335 =
;
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#729 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:54 pm

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 20

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 20:48Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 20

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 21Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.1N 83.1W
Location: 189 miles (305 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 335° (from the NNW) 4 knots (5 mph)
1000mb -117m (-384 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 571m (1,873 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 50° (from the NE) 1 knots (1 mph)
850mb 1,309m (4,295 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F) 265° (from the W) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 20:42Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.15N 83.06W
Splash Time: 20:44Z

Release Location: 17.15N 83.06W View map)
Release Time: 20:42:25Z

Splash Location: 17.15N 83.06W (
Splash Time: 20:43:35Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 345° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 300° (from the WNW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 986mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 325° (from the NW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
987mb (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F)
902mb 21.4°C (70.5°F) 20.8°C (69.4°F)
850mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F)
843mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
987mb (Surface) 335° (from the NNW) 4 knots (5 mph)
922mb 340° (from the NNW) 1 knots (1 mph)
868mb 295° (from the WNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
856mb 260° (from the W) 6 knots (7 mph)
843mb 280° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)


---

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#730 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:56 pm

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#731 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:57 pm

The Fist!
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#732 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 3:59 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242056
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 40 20111024
204700 1719N 08314W 8431 01454 9982 +145 //// 045064 068 063 019 01
204730 1720N 08316W 8437 01459 9992 +146 //// 045067 070 062 015 01
204800 1721N 08317W 8415 01492 0006 +148 //// 039067 070 060 012 01
204830 1722N 08318W 8411 01504 0020 +139 //// 037064 068 061 022 01
204900 1723N 08319W 8442 01476 0023 +139 //// 042059 062 062 029 01
204930 1725N 08320W 8433 01492 0030 +137 //// 036060 065 064 031 01
205000 1726N 08321W 8416 01511 0032 +137 //// 030068 073 061 037 05
205030 1727N 08322W 8441 01491 //// +133 //// 027065 069 057 023 01
205100 1727N 08323W 8437 01501 0051 +131 //// 028064 065 057 017 01
205130 1728N 08324W 8423 01521 0054 +134 //// 028064 066 056 016 01
205200 1729N 08325W 8433 01512 0057 +137 //// 031061 062 053 012 01
205230 1731N 08326W 8434 01518 0061 +138 //// 030059 060 051 011 01
205300 1732N 08327W 8425 01530 0059 +149 //// 034057 057 050 009 01
205330 1733N 08328W 8431 01526 0053 +164 +144 038054 055 048 006 00
205400 1734N 08330W 8433 01528 0053 +167 +141 040053 054 047 006 00
205430 1735N 08331W 8429 01535 0059 +165 +140 040050 051 047 007 00
205500 1736N 08332W 8429 01538 0063 +165 +134 039047 048 046 006 00
205530 1737N 08333W 8429 01539 0063 +169 +133 039046 047 047 004 00
205600 1738N 08334W 8429 01541 0065 +171 +130 039044 044 044 003 00
205630 1739N 08335W 8429 01545 0071 +167 +132 036042 042 044 003 00
$$
;
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#733 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:06 pm

Image
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#734 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:07 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 242104
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 24/20:42:20Z
B. 17 deg 09 min N
083 deg 03 min W
C. 850 mb 1310 m
D. 60 kt
E. 162 deg 10 nm
F. 272 deg 74 kt
G. 162 deg 10 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0218A RINA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 74 KT S QUAD 20:39:00Z
Strong banding around center from 300 to 020 degrees

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#735 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242106
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 41 20111024
205700 1740N 08337W 8435 01541 0072 +167 +137 034039 040 043 005 00
205730 1742N 08338W 8430 01545 0072 +170 +132 037038 038 042 004 00
205800 1743N 08339W 8429 01551 0073 +173 +129 036035 037 043 003 00
205830 1744N 08340W 8430 01551 0074 +175 +128 032036 037 042 004 00
205900 1745N 08341W 8433 01549 0075 +177 +129 026036 037 041 004 00
205930 1746N 08342W 8423 01560 0077 +174 +129 029036 037 042 002 00
210000 1747N 08343W 8431 01557 0079 +175 +126 027033 035 041 003 00
210030 1748N 08345W 8429 01557 0081 +174 +126 036035 036 042 004 00
210100 1749N 08346W 8430 01558 0085 +170 +129 038039 040 040 006 00
210130 1750N 08347W 8433 01555 0086 +168 +132 034044 045 039 007 00
210200 1751N 08348W 8425 01564 0082 +175 +125 035047 048 038 006 00
210230 1753N 08349W 8426 01561 0083 +174 +119 043042 046 038 006 00
210300 1754N 08350W 8430 01558 0089 +165 +128 049036 038 040 007 00
210330 1755N 08352W 8428 01562 0088 +167 +133 042034 037 038 007 00
210400 1756N 08353W 8424 01566 0090 +164 +138 044035 037 040 007 00
210430 1757N 08354W 8433 01560 0093 +164 +127 045038 038 037 008 00
210500 1758N 08355W 8429 01562 0092 +168 +123 043040 042 036 007 00
210530 1759N 08356W 8427 01566 0094 +163 +136 043040 042 036 006 00
210600 1801N 08358W 8429 01565 0096 +160 +139 051040 041 033 005 00
210630 1802N 08359W 8432 01563 0096 +160 +143 054042 045 037 005 00
$$
;
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#736 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:10 pm

DECODED VDM OB 19

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 21:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 20:42:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°09'N 83°03'W (17.15N 83.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 185 miles (297 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,310m (4,298ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSE (162°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 272° at 74kts (From the W at ~ 85.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSE (162°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 987mb (29.15 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the south quadrant at 20:39:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Strong banding around center from 300 to 020 degrees
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Re: Re:

#737 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:10 pm

Rainband wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:12Z GFS has no development. Wow, this is incredible. It really is. I do not recall seeing anything like this in some time. What the heck? I guess it could still happen but with the major globals jumping off, what are the odds? Probably low. I guess that it all comes down to "why change now?" In other words, why would the Caribbean suddenly come to life now when it has had zero all season due to lack of instability and other issues? Simply amazing turn of events in just the last 24 hours.
well as stated by others. We rely too much on the models and that in part is why sooo many forecasts busted this year. It would be funny if not ironic if this did go on and develop after losing model support..... :eek: 8-)
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#738 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:14 pm

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#739 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:18 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 242114
97779 21114 20182 84200 15200 06037 16159 /2499
40330
RMK AF306 0218A RINA OB 22
SWS = 33 KTS
NW EXIT AND CLIMB PT
;
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#740 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:19 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 242116
AF306 0218A RINA HDOB 42 20111024
210700 1803N 08400W 8425 01568 0100 +157 +135 053045 045 036 005 00
210730 1804N 08401W 8434 01560 0103 +154 +127 050042 045 036 007 00
210800 1805N 08402W 8417 01579 0101 +158 +132 049040 042 040 007 00
210830 1806N 08404W 8429 01567 0109 +145 +138 038037 039 046 017 03
210900 1807N 08405W 8414 01581 0111 +134 //// 046042 044 048 020 05
210930 1809N 08406W 8432 01565 0115 +137 +135 046043 044 040 008 00
211000 1810N 08407W 8425 01571 0108 +149 +132 047042 043 035 008 00
211030 1811N 08408W 8436 01564 0105 +158 +137 049038 040 032 003 00
211100 1812N 08410W 8426 01571 0102 +159 +142 055035 037 032 002 00
211130 1813N 08411W 8429 01570 0101 +162 +153 055036 037 033 003 00
211200 1815N 08412W 8428 01568 0102 +157 +155 054032 033 035 005 00
211230 1816N 08413W 8175 01833 0102 +147 +133 062041 044 040 004 03
211300 1818N 08414W 7717 02314 0096 +125 +094 059039 043 /// /// 03
211330 1819N 08415W 7383 02687 0095 +103 +071 058036 037 /// /// 03
211400 1820N 08416W 7046 03076 0091 +086 +060 058040 042 039 009 03
211430 1822N 08417W 6807 03369 0091 +072 +047 059033 035 041 005 03
211500 1824N 08418W 6481 03778 0114 +038 +037 047034 038 /// /// 03
211530 1825N 08418W 6215 04120 0102 +025 +023 050032 033 /// /// 03
211600 1827N 08419W 5998 04398 0085 +014 +012 053029 030 /// /// 03
211630 1828N 08420W 5804 04658 0061 +003 +002 045022 023 038 000 03
$$
;

And Mission Over...
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This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


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