ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#781 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:00 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:http://tc.met.psu.edu/

The 18z GFDL gets Rina up to 150 mph in the Caribbean before brushing the NE Yucatan and then hitting extreme South Florida at about 85-90 mph


The GFDL depiction of this may end up being pretty close on intensity which would be really bad for Cozumel and Cancun if it happens

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#782 Postby alch97 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:00 pm

So I should be looking out for Rina here in Miami? This is going to cramp my style.......
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#783 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:03 pm

alch97 wrote:So I should be looking out for Rina here in Miami? This is going to cramp my style.......


It certainly bears watching and I wouldnt let my guard down yet
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#784 Postby jinftl » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:06 pm

Way too soon to know for sure...so much could happen this week in terms of track and intensity....until we are in a watch or warning...which could be at least 5 or 6 days out if that is going to happen, we have to do what we in florida are accustomed to doing each season, alot of watching and waiting.

alch97 wrote:So I should be looking out for Rina here in Miami? This is going to cramp my style.......
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#785 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:06 pm

pretty sure it aint coming here. :D
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#786 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:12 pm

jinftl wrote:Way too soon to know for sure...so much could happen this week in terms of track and intensity....until we are in a watch or warning...which could be at least 5 or 6 days out if that is going to happen, we have to do what we in florida are accustomed to doing each season, alot of watching and waiting.

alch97 wrote:So I should be looking out for Rina here in Miami? This is going to cramp my style.......

The two models that show Rina reaching south florida show it making landfall in just under 5 days
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#787 Postby jinftl » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:14 pm

it does seem, as of now, that the focus of the potential track by this weekend is south of your area in Tampa-St. Pete. Of course, alot could change...for the entire state... as we move through the week...from the system completely fizzling out or bypassing the state...to having direct impacts on some areas. Vigilance is the word of the week.

Rainband wrote:pretty sure it aint coming here. :D
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#788 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:28 pm

The 18z GFDL is a little stronger and a tad bit north of the 12z run. Looks like 966 mb into Naples. GFDL actually strengtens the storm after overland in the NE Yuacatan in the southern GOM until about 85W.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl/18zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSLgfdlLoop.html
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#789 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:30 pm

Recurve wrote:Holy Humberto Batman, did this thing come together fast. A blob to a depression to a storm to a hurricane so fast, as Masters pointed out. I'm glad it's relatively small. The cold tops and banding are sure impressive for such a young storm.

Wouldn't you know this weekend I'm set to move out of the Keys, and the tropics are setting up for a possible kick in the behind. Looks like I might be putting up shutters before I finish packing.


Evening Recurve,
Good to see u again, why are you leaving the keys? I might find myself down putting up the shutters.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#790 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:36 pm

blp wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Radical change of heart for new GFDL. Follows the HWRF's lead on a SFL strike, but gets much closer to the Yucatan first.

18z 126 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif
00z 120 hour point: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL120.gif

Huge difference.


Yep, I was just looking at that. Take a look at the SFWMD plots. GFDL big change.

Image saved.
Image


Hey you still on?
At my parents what do you think should I be heading back.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#791 Postby maxx9512 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:38 pm

Just pulled up the models for Rina and it didn't look like this a few hours ago. Only 2 or 3 were on Fl. then. Looks like maybe a few late nights ahead for some here if this continues.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

My bad grabbed wrong image :oops:
Now it's Rina
Last edited by maxx9512 on Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#792 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:39 pm

AL, 18, 2011102500, , BEST, 0, 172N, 832W, 65, 987, HU,

Probably an underestimate based on earlier Recon being higher than Dvorak.
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Re:

#793 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:AL, 18, 2011102500, , BEST, 0, 172N, 832W, 65, 987, HU,

Probably an underestimate based on earlier Recon being higher than Dvorak.



SSD dvorak is also on that camp.

24/2345 UTC 17.1N 83.3W T4.0/4.0 RINA -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#794 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:53 pm

maxx9512 wrote:Just pulled up the models for Rina and it didn't look like this a few hours ago. Only 2 or 3 were on Fl. then. Looks like maybe a few late nights ahead for some here if this continues.

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/4704/95lmodels1016.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



That's not Rina, lol.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#795 Postby fci » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:06 pm

NDG wrote:
maxx9512 wrote:Just pulled up the models for Rina and it didn't look like this a few hours ago. Only 2 or 3 were on Fl. then. Looks like maybe a few late nights ahead for some here if this continues.

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/4704/95lmodels1016.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



That's not Rina, lol.


LOL, You are right.
That is 95L not Rina!
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Re:

#796 Postby fci » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:13 pm

NDG wrote:Any word from JB lately? His adrenaline has to be popping, lol.


Here are the tweets he has submitted regarding Rina:

About 7:00 PM Monday
That should lose me some followers,eh? The over and under is 20. In the meantime, Fla, as tweeted last week, keep an eye on Rina!


About 7:00 AM Monday
Food for thought: Wilma vs Hurricane model on Rina ( off Dr Ryan Maue site) Rina slow moving challenge this week


About Midnight Monday:
Rina now christened in the Caribbean. My is further north, more in line with HWRF


On Sunday:
Recon looks like this system off central America is a depression, Waiting to see what TPC does. Fla should watch this
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#797 Postby bg1 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:30 pm

maxx9512 wrote:
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/7409/rinamodel1024.jpg

Uploaded with [url=http://imageshack.us]ImageShack.us


The track consensus, recent RI, and conditions remind me of...
Uh-oh.
But it'll likely be controlled by the shear this time.

Personal forecast disclaimer: see below map
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#798 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:30 pm

Has anybody noticed, the much trusted TVCA concensus model keeps shifting to the north on each run, a good 50-70 miles north on each run.
Do not be surprised if the next forecast track by the NHC shifts northward once again, closer to the TVCA.

Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#799 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:41 pm

Textbook core: 2C @ 12km

Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#800 Postby caneseddy » Mon Oct 24, 2011 8:43 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... t1best.gif

00z early cycle hurricane tracks
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