ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like it may not even make it out of the Caribbean ala 18z gfs

[fci]

Looks to me like it may not even make it out of the Caribbean ala 18z gfs

From your mouth (keyboard) to Mother Nature's ears!

[summersquall]

Really getting her act together. I truly thought we were done for the season after this past weekend's impressive blast of cool air.

[NDG]

Heights are beginning rise north of Rina now from across southern FL to the northern GOM, so I would expect her to start moving a little faster now towards the WNW & NW towards the Yucatan P.

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS ADT Center estimate:

[MWatkins]

Looks to me like it may not even make it out of the Caribbean ala 18z gfs

Unfortunately, the 18Z GFS seems way too week with model Rina...barely reflects at 500MB. The way this system is going right now, it's going to be a deep layer storm if it's not already.

MW

[SouthDadeFish]

Rina throughout her lifetime:

10/21/11: 15:45Z:


10/22/11: 17:15Z:


10/24/11: 01:45Z:


10/25/11: 01:45Z:

[maxx9512]

Given the forecasted path of 97L and Rina not moving real fast it looks like 97L will be almost on top of it Especially if some of the GFS runs pan out. If it gets close what effect if any will this have? Isn't 97L set to get fairly strong in it's own right. I believe 97L right now is looking pretty good and what kind of scenario that this can create. Quite a set up for the tail end of the season.

[cycloneye]

New microwave made at 9:37 PM EDT. Pretty round eye now compared with the earlier pass.

[AdamFirst]

Given the forecasted path of 97L and Rina not moving real fast it looks like 97L will be almost on top of it Especially if some of the GFS runs pan out. If it gets close what effect if any will this have? Isn't 97L set to get fairly strong in it's own right. I believe 97L right now is looking pretty good and what kind of scenario that this can create. Quite a set up for the tail end of the season.

Rina would eat 97L and spit it out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow Luis that is pretty impressive. Recon tonight will be very interesting.

[maxx9512]

I came across this and it might help answer the age old question....Which model should you trust?
Taken from..WorldWeatherPost.com
http://www.worldweatherpost.com/

http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2011/2010_skill.png
Figure 5. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms during 2010. OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; NOGAPS=Navy Operational Global Prediction System model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCN=one of the consensus models that lends together all (or most) of the above models. Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2010 verification report.

Which model should you trust?
Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing models used to predict hurricane tracks. So which is the best? Well, the best forecasts are made by combining the forecasts from three or more models into a “consensus” forecast. Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model). This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models. As seen in Figure 5, over the past two years, the GFS and GFDL model have been the next best models, with the UKMET model not far behind. Last year, the NOGAPS model did very poorly, forcing NHC to come up with some new consensus models this year, the TCOA and TVCA, that do not include the NOGAPS model. For those interested in learning more about the models, NOAA has a great training video (updated for 2011.)

[CrazyC83]

I think Recon might find a Cat 2...

[gatorcane]

Well I would say with the two most reliable models showing a sharp bend to the east at the end or even east-southeast or Rina getting absorbed into a strong front, not really worried here in South Florida. The upper-level winds look to be very strong across the GOM come this weekend with dry stable continental air plunging south down into the southeast GOM and Florida. The GFDL has just been flat out bad this season and the HWRF not much better. No other models bring this to Florida that I can see. She may even get buried into the Yucatan.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Well I would say with the two most reliable models showing a sharp bend to the east at the end or even east-southeast or Rina getting absorbed into a strong front, not really worried here in South Florida. The upper-level winds look to be very strong across the GOM come this weekend with dry stable continental air plunging south down into the southeast GOM and Florida. The GFDL has just been flat out bad this season and the HWRF nit much better. No other models bring this to Florida that I can see. She may even get buried into the Yucatan.

No other models show Rina even as strong as it is now. That's a concern because the stronger it is at the Yucatan channel the higher the chance it makes the connection with the front and goes NE.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0300 UTC TUE OCT 25 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 83.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think Recon might find a Cat 2...

With recent satellite trends I think I'll agree with you. If the eye clears out before recon gets there I could go for 970mb. Right now I think she's at 980-983mb range.

[cycloneye]

[maxx9512]

Well I would say with the two most reliable models showing a sharp bend to the east at the end or even east-southeast or Rina getting absorbed into a strong front, not really worried here in South Florida. The upper-level winds look to be very strong across the GOM come this weekend with dry stable continental air plunging south down into the southeast GOM and Florida. The GFDL has just been flat out bad this season and the HWRF not much better. No other models bring this to Florida that I can see. She may even get buried into the Yucatan.

You might just be right but there are more especially from 5-6 hrs. ago. Granted most are lesser models but maybe a trend.. we'll see.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

RINA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A
NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -70C. A 0137 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED A CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST
ADT VALUE IS 4.3/73 KT. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.

RINA IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
FORECAST IS THAT DRY AIR LURKING IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE AS RINA ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
ADDITIONAL DRY AIR IMPINGES ON THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE COULD
ALSO INTERACT WITH LAND AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THIS TIME. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO
DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS IMPLY MORE WEAKENING THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS MOVED LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/03. LITTLE
CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-72 HOURS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. THE HWRF/GFDL/UKMET ACCELERATE RINA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFS TURNS THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL SPREAD IS IN PART
RELATED TO THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF RINA. A STRONGER
CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF...WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED
BY THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE A WEAKER/SHALLOWER
SYSTEM WOULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE
RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN
FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION.

GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.2N 83.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 83.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.5N 84.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.9N 85.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 86.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.9N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 22.2N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

...RINA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 83.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST. RINA IS SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART