ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

More models are now thinking that wind shear in the GOMEX will be too much for Rina.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFDL is starting to roll... down to 964mb in only 12 hours...

[WeatherEmperor]

More models are now thinking that wind shear in the GOMEX will be too much for Rina.

If you want to see something really crazy, go in the 97L models thread and see what the 00Z HWRF does with 97L.....

[SouthDadeFish]

EDIT: this is the 00Z HWRF:

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250551
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 20 20111025
054130 1803N 08433W 6963 03198 //// +073 //// 038037 038 041 004 01
054200 1802N 08431W 6965 03197 //// +077 //// 038037 037 041 005 01
054230 1800N 08430W 6966 03193 //// +074 //// 038038 040 042 011 01
054300 1759N 08428W 6967 03193 //// +065 //// 026041 042 045 015 01
054330 1758N 08427W 6980 03175 //// +061 //// 020044 046 048 018 01
054400 1757N 08426W 6970 03186 //// +062 //// 017041 042 050 019 01
054430 1755N 08424W 6971 03185 //// +053 //// 021043 045 047 021 01
054500 1754N 08423W 6969 03181 //// +044 //// 028043 045 045 024 01
054530 1753N 08421W 6961 03190 //// +047 //// 032040 042 047 011 01
054600 1751N 08420W 6968 03180 //// +061 //// 032037 038 045 008 01
054630 1750N 08418W 6965 03188 //// +070 //// 027034 035 044 006 01
054700 1749N 08417W 6967 03182 //// +076 //// 021035 035 041 004 01
054730 1748N 08416W 6966 03182 //// +073 //// 014034 035 043 006 01
054800 1746N 08414W 6968 03175 //// +075 //// 012037 038 044 008 01
054830 1745N 08413W 6969 03178 //// +053 //// 014036 037 046 010 01
054900 1744N 08411W 6964 03176 //// +057 //// 018028 031 045 011 01
054930 1744N 08411W 6964 03176 //// +056 //// 013033 037 048 022 05
055000 1741N 08408W 6969 03173 //// +053 //// 025031 035 056 020 01
055030 1740N 08407W 6976 03157 //// +058 //// 035040 043 050 018 01
055100 1739N 08406W 6961 03180 //// +058 //// 035044 045 046 011 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFDL STILL crosses South Florida. For now, it appears to be the outlier as the HWRF has just joined the GFS with the loop back into the NW Caribbean. Still waiting for the UKMET to update....



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250601
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 21 20111025
055130 1738N 08404W 6972 03161 //// +066 //// 037041 042 043 010 01
055200 1736N 08403W 6966 03164 //// +072 //// 037041 041 043 009 01
055230 1735N 08401W 6967 03162 //// +070 //// 036040 041 042 007 01
055300 1734N 08400W 6965 03169 //// +069 //// 034040 041 040 009 05
055330 1733N 08358W 6967 03155 //// +069 //// 025038 039 042 007 01
055400 1732N 08357W 6968 03153 //// +067 //// 027039 041 043 010 01
055430 1731N 08355W 6969 03144 //// +058 //// 024044 048 047 015 01
055500 1730N 08354W 6975 03136 //// +054 //// 026045 049 046 015 01
055530 1729N 08352W 6964 03139 //// +050 //// 030055 057 047 011 01
055600 1728N 08351W 6960 03139 //// +054 //// 028054 056 048 007 01
055630 1727N 08349W 6967 03126 //// +070 //// 026051 052 049 007 01
055700 1726N 08348W 6967 03117 //// +067 //// 023053 056 052 008 01
055730 1725N 08346W 6967 03113 //// +063 //// 021057 059 053 006 01
055800 1724N 08344W 6967 03102 //// +058 //// 020059 061 057 015 01
055830 1723N 08343W 6968 03090 //// +056 //// 026065 068 065 023 01
055900 1722N 08341W 6975 03060 //// +067 //// 030068 075 073 038 05
055930 1720N 08340W 6961 03050 //// +069 //// 030076 078 080 031 01
060000 1719N 08339W 6945 03040 //// +075 //// 023071 079 085 026 01
060030 1718N 08337W 7003 02940 //// +109 //// 013054 060 089 009 05
060100 1717N 08335W 6957 02987 //// +152 //// 018035 042 072 005 05
$$
;

[Dave]

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is the 00Z GFDL:



it brings ashore a fairly solid hurricane. I'm assuming it keeps it intact due to its quick forward speed. It would be something if the Euro agreed with the GFDL

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z Euro has Rina disappearing in four days.... Right.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250611
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 22 20111025
060130 1717N 08334W 6967 02957 //// +159 //// 009019 022 040 001 01
060200 1716N 08332W 6966 02957 //// +161 //// 009009 013 030 002 05
060230 1716N 08330W 6976 02939 //// +163 //// 028002 004 023 002 01
060300 1716N 08328W 6963 02954 //// +159 //// 147006 009 018 001 05
060330 1716N 08326W 6969 02952 //// +163 //// 181011 015 013 002 05
060400 1715N 08325W 6959 02959 //// +162 //// 213020 024 024 003 01
060430 1713N 08324W 6971 02954 //// +155 //// 209033 035 036 002 01
060500 1712N 08322W 6978 02959 //// +148 //// 210044 050 040 003 01
060530 1711N 08321W 6969 02981 //// +145 //// 213062 067 048 002 01
060600 1710N 08320W 6961 03013 //// +128 //// 218074 081 059 002 01
060630 1709N 08319W 6969 03030 //// +130 //// 223084 085 063 003 01
060700 1707N 08318W 6972 03047 //// +106 //// 221076 078 062 004 01
060730 1706N 08316W 6975 03061 //// +093 //// 221072 073 057 004 01
060800 1705N 08315W 6966 03084 //// +089 //// 221071 073 055 003 01
060830 1704N 08314W 6974 03085 //// +081 //// 220064 065 054 001 01
060900 1703N 08313W 6961 03109 //// +073 //// 223060 062 051 004 01
060930 1701N 08312W 6974 03096 //// +064 //// 226057 059 053 009 01
061000 1700N 08310W 6973 03108 //// +061 //// 231055 058 053 009 01
061030 1659N 08309W 6962 03130 //// +060 //// 232055 059 049 007 01
061100 1658N 08308W 6981 03109 //// +064 //// 235054 055 047 004 01
$$
;

[Dave]

Ok I'm outta here...need sleep & will see you all tomorrow night. Take care!

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250621
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 23 20111025
061130 1656N 08307W 6963 03138 //// +079 //// 239053 055 045 004 01
061200 1655N 08305W 6977 03129 //// +080 //// 236050 052 042 003 01
061230 1654N 08304W 6957 03163 //// +094 //// 235050 053 043 003 01
061300 1652N 08303W 6966 03155 //// +091 //// 232045 046 044 004 01
061330 1651N 08301W 6971 03156 //// +063 //// 223039 040 042 006 01
061400 1650N 08300W 6970 03155 //// +063 //// 219039 040 040 007 01
061430 1649N 08259W 6966 03161 //// +060 //// 207038 040 040 009 01
061500 1647N 08258W 6970 03160 //// +053 //// 206040 041 038 010 01
061530 1646N 08257W 6965 03162 //// +068 //// 204038 041 037 007 01
061600 1645N 08255W 6976 03151 //// +071 //// 201038 038 035 007 01
061630 1644N 08254W 6963 03170 //// +075 //// 200038 039 033 004 01
061700 1643N 08253W 6966 03171 //// +077 //// 201037 038 032 003 01
061730 1641N 08252W 6969 03167 //// +078 //// 202037 037 032 002 01
061800 1640N 08251W 6966 03170 //// +079 //// 201036 037 033 002 01
061830 1639N 08250W 6967 03167 //// +077 //// 203036 036 033 003 01
061900 1638N 08248W 6966 03171 //// +074 //// 206035 036 032 001 01
061930 1637N 08247W 6972 03169 //// +080 //// 205037 037 031 003 01
062000 1635N 08246W 6967 03175 //// +076 //// 205035 036 032 003 01
062030 1634N 08245W 6964 03177 //// +075 //// 205032 034 033 002 01
062100 1633N 08244W 6972 03172 //// +075 //// 204030 031 032 003 01
$$
;

[Macrocane]

000
URNT12 KNHC 250627
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/06:02:40Z
B. 17 deg 16 min N
083 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2910 m
D. 89 kt
E. 283 deg 7 nm
F. 025 deg 79 kt
G. 291 deg 10 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 7 C / 3056 m
J. 17 C / 3038 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 06:06:30Z
;

[Macrocane]

Eyewall still open, but winds are above 80 kt at flight level and surface:

000
URNT12 KNHC 250627
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/06:02:40Z
B. 17 deg 16 min N
083 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2910 m
D. 89 kt
E. 283 deg 7 nm
F. 025 deg 79 kt
G. 291 deg 10 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 7 C / 3056 m
J. 17 C / 3038 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 06:06:30Z
;

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250631
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 24 20111025
062130 1632N 08242W 6964 03181 //// +075 //// 207030 032 032 002 01
062200 1631N 08241W 6967 03178 //// +075 //// 212032 033 032 002 01
062230 1629N 08240W 6965 03181 //// +077 //// 214033 033 031 003 01
062300 1628N 08239W 6968 03177 //// +081 //// 212033 034 030 002 01
062330 1627N 08238W 6970 03176 //// +078 //// 210030 031 029 003 01
062400 1626N 08236W 6963 03183 //// +082 //// 213031 031 030 003 01
062430 1624N 08235W 6967 03185 //// +080 //// 215030 031 028 003 01
062500 1623N 08234W 6967 03182 //// +080 //// 216029 029 028 003 01
062530 1622N 08233W 6966 03185 //// +080 //// 219030 031 027 002 01
062600 1620N 08231W 6971 03179 //// +080 //// 218030 030 026 002 01
062630 1619N 08230W 6966 03192 //// +077 //// 216030 031 026 002 05
062700 1619N 08228W 6964 03199 //// +076 //// 206030 030 /// /// 05
062730 1621N 08228W 6978 03172 //// +080 //// 202029 029 027 002 05
062800 1623N 08228W 6963 03189 //// +080 //// 204029 029 028 002 01
062830 1625N 08227W 6971 03178 //// +080 //// 204029 030 027 002 01
062900 1627N 08227W 6967 03181 //// +079 //// 204030 031 028 002 01
062930 1629N 08227W 6966 03182 //// +078 //// 202031 032 029 001 01
063000 1631N 08226W 6971 03176 //// +077 //// 202032 032 028 002 01
063030 1633N 08226W 6963 03182 //// +075 //// 203033 034 028 002 01
063100 1635N 08225W 6970 03173 //// +075 //// 202032 032 029 001 01
$$
;

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250641
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 25 20111025
063130 1637N 08225W 6965 03181 //// +075 //// 201032 033 028 003 01
063200 1639N 08225W 6970 03172 //// +075 //// 199033 033 028 001 01
063230 1641N 08224W 6964 03180 //// +076 //// 196033 033 028 003 01
063300 1643N 08224W 6964 03179 //// +076 //// 193033 034 029 001 01
063330 1645N 08224W 6970 03173 //// +079 //// 191034 034 028 003 01
063400 1648N 08223W 6969 03174 //// +080 //// 189034 034 029 002 01
063430 1650N 08223W 6966 03177 //// +080 //// 189035 035 029 002 01
063500 1652N 08222W 6967 03174 //// +081 //// 189037 037 028 003 01
063530 1654N 08222W 6967 03175 //// +086 //// 187038 038 029 002 01
063600 1656N 08222W 6966 03176 //// +090 //// 183039 039 029 002 01
063630 1658N 08221W 6971 03172 //// +086 //// 184038 039 027 004 01
063700 1700N 08221W 6961 03184 //// +088 //// 180039 039 029 002 01
063730 1702N 08220W 6975 03168 //// +087 //// 178039 040 029 004 01
063800 1704N 08220W 6964 03180 //// +087 //// 177041 041 031 002 01
063830 1706N 08220W 6963 03180 //// +086 //// 176041 042 029 002 01
063900 1708N 08219W 6974 03168 //// +085 //// 174041 041 030 003 01
063930 1710N 08219W 6961 03183 //// +089 //// 176040 041 030 003 01
064000 1712N 08218W 6970 03172 //// +085 //// 172040 040 031 004 01
064030 1714N 08218W 6963 03180 //// +079 //// 168036 039 031 008 01
064100 1716N 08218W 6965 03176 //// +084 //// 171039 041 028 003 01
$$
;

[fci]

Eyewall still open, but winds are above 80 kt at flight level and surface:

000
URNT12 KNHC 250627
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/06:02:40Z
B. 17 deg 16 min N
083 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2910 m
D. 89 kt
E. 283 deg 7 nm
F. 025 deg 79 kt
G. 291 deg 10 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 7 C / 3056 m
J. 17 C / 3038 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0318A RINA OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 84 KT SE QUAD 06:06:30Z
;

Isn't this in the wrong thread?