ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

[NDG]

00Z Euro has Rina disappearing in four days.... Right.

The euro has been horrible with this system, IMO. I have no idea why it keeps dissipating Rina, in last nights run it shows Rina start dissipating as soon as it reach the Yucatan P, yesterday's 12z run show it start dissipating before even reaching the coast, the euro's shear forecast shows less than 8 knots of shear by Thursday night over the system, the only thing that I could think of is that dry air kills it.

[cycloneye]

The next plane departs at 11:00 AM EDT,but I can't be here at that time so who will help to post the data?

[ObsessedMiami]

Whats the story? A CAT 2 and a whole hour goes by without a post in here? Times change....

[tolakram]

Whats the story? A CAT 2 and a whole hour goes by without a post in here? Times change....

Let's stay on topic and stop fretting about early morning posts and lack of activity.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop. Another morning blowup in convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[AJC3]

It's becoming apparent to me that "something" is likely going to lift out to the NE and ENE across the Keys/straits and southern-most Florida, and that "something" is the top half of Rina.

Assuming the cyclone does reach the Yucatan Channel just west of Cuba in about 4 days, thereafter I expect that Rina will completely decouple as it gets to a point not too far SW of Key West. While "it" could drag the LLC 'kicking and screaming' with it, I think that scenario is unlikely.

Since Rina is now a strong and vertically deep tropical cyclone, it simply cannot help but respond to the 500MB flow after the ridge to its north collapses. And with the large surface high building across the southeast U.S. in Florida by the end of the week, this should effectively block the LLC from keeping up with the portion of the cyclone from about 500MB on up.


my 0.000002. YOMV

[wxman57]

Pinhole eye appearing at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

I'm not seeing it.

[AJC3]

Pinhole eye appearing at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

Maybe some subtle hints of a developing warm spot, but nothing that I'd call a pinhole eye.

[SFLcane]

06z GFDL coming around now has a weak ts through the keys. Just not a favorable environment that waits to its north. Likely decapitation.

[SootyTern]

This seems like a case of we need to watch what the storm is actually doing, not what the models say it is going to do. She is currently intensifying, a powerful front is coming; enough said. I also am confused by this turn to the ESE instead of just running up the front, even as a sheared mess.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 90kts.

AL, 18, 2011102512, , BEST, 0, 174N, 838W, 90, 971, HU

[NDG]

[xironman]

My guess the ESE turn is because it has been decapitated by the trough and no longer feels the upper level winds so much as the trades.

[NDG]

[gatorcane]

06z GFDL coming around now has a weak ts through the keys. Just not a favorable environment that waits to its north. Likely decapitation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I do agree with that. I don't know why people are discounting the Euro which pulverizes it and rips it to shreads in a few days. That's quite possible because very hostile conditions will be awaiting it if it tries to move out of the Caribbean towards Florida. The GFDL is an outlier (yet again) and should be discarded.

Could see decoupling as well with some weak energy passing through extreme south Florida/straits along and ahead of the cold front but can't see Rina being a significant event for Florida.

[NDG]

6z gfs still initializing this as a 1004mb low. Ends up with a weak TS near Key West.

But, the 4 day 500mb loop has a great depiction of her getting picked up by the trough http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

I am surprised nobody else has commented on the 06z GFS.
It keeps trending closer to S FL of at least of a tropical storm condition possible affecting the keys and extreme southern FL Friday and Saturday.

[NDG]

06z GFDL coming around now has a weak ts through the keys. Just not a favorable environment that waits to its north. Likely decapitation.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I do agree with that. I don't know why people are discounting the Euro which pulverizes it and rips it to shreads in a few days. That's quite possible because very hostile conditions will be awaiting it if it tries to move out of the Caribbean towards Florida.

Could see decoupling as well with some weak energy passing through extreme south Florida/straits along and ahead of the cold front but can't see Rina being a significant event for Florida.

The euro actually "pulverizes" Rina before it gets out of the Caribbean, makes no sense with UL conditions forecasted by both the GFS and Euro to be that hostile to just simply dissappear. The euro has not been handling the strength of this system that well.

[AdamFirst]

I am surprised nobody else has commented on the 06z GFS.
It keeps trending closer to S FL of at least of a tropical storm condition possible affecting the keys and extreme southern FL Friday and Saturday.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

It also disintegrates Rina over the Keys/Florida Straits. With the front I imagine all the moisture would be ripped off the system and spread over the peninsula.

GFS has trended north with each run but hasn't stopped the weakening trend.

[AdamFirst]

As discussed in the models thread, the 06z GFS brings Rina into Florida Bay before it completely dissolves west of mainland Monroe County and Cape Sable.

Rain event again for the peninsula? Some more moisture to add to the coffers for the dry season?