ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1001 Postby Crostorm » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:59 am

Image

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/NEXSAT.html
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Re: Re:

#1002 Postby HurricaneRobert » Tue Oct 25, 2011 11:59 am

westwind wrote:
Vortex wrote:Per latest Hi-res visible, Rina appears to be strengthen further. In fact, the eye appears to have contracted and cleared out some over the last 2 hours.

Yeah I think recon will find a cat 3. I wonder how strong Rina will be able to get?


I think it looks like a category 4.
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#1003 Postby westwind » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:03 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 251700
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 13 20111025
165030 2151N 08612W 3759 08032 0413 -195 -326 257013 013 027 001 00
165100 2149N 08611W 3758 08035 0414 -191 -326 260014 014 027 000 00
165130 2147N 08609W 3758 08033 0413 -192 -324 260013 014 029 000 00
165200 2144N 08608W 3759 08031 0412 -193 -325 265013 014 028 001 00
165230 2142N 08607W 3758 08037 0414 -190 -325 261013 013 027 000 00
165300 2139N 08606W 3759 08034 0415 -190 -325 257011 011 027 000 00
165330 2137N 08604W 3759 08034 0416 -190 -325 253011 011 027 001 00
165400 2134N 08603W 3759 08036 0417 -190 -325 258011 011 027 000 00
165430 2132N 08602W 3759 08037 0416 -191 -326 257011 012 027 000 00
165500 2129N 08600W 3758 08037 0416 -192 -327 258009 010 029 001 00
165530 2127N 08559W 3759 08036 0416 -196 -327 257007 007 031 004 00
165600 2124N 08558W 3760 08036 0417 -200 -327 232007 007 031 001 00
165630 2122N 08557W 3757 08043 0418 -200 -326 213007 007 029 002 00
165700 2120N 08555W 3759 08038 0419 -195 -325 204005 007 026 000 00
165730 2117N 08554W 3759 08038 0419 -198 -326 189008 009 025 000 00
165800 2115N 08553W 3758 08042 0420 -196 -325 187011 011 026 000 00
165830 2112N 08552W 3759 08040 0420 -195 -323 193012 013 025 000 00
165900 2110N 08550W 3759 08039 0420 -198 -324 198013 013 026 001 00
165930 2108N 08549W 3759 08038 0419 -199 -325 191014 014 026 000 00
170000 2105N 08548W 3759 08039 0419 -193 -321 193014 015 028 000 00
$$
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#1004 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:05 pm

I think recon will find a borderline 3 with pressures around 965mb and continuing to strengthen...Overnight and early Wednesday I think she may peak at 120-130...
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Re:

#1005 Postby westwind » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:11 pm

Vortex wrote:When is recon due back in??


Recon is en route now first center pass should be in about an hour.
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#1006 Postby westwind » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:14 pm

I will be away for 20 mins or so, but I should be back before the plane descends.
000
URNT15 KNHC 251710
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 14 20111025
170030 2103N 08547W 3761 08035 0418 -190 -321 204014 014 027 000 00
170100 2101N 08546W 3759 08037 0418 -191 -323 205015 016 027 000 00
170130 2058N 08544W 3759 08037 0418 -187 -324 197018 019 027 000 00
170200 2056N 08543W 3759 08038 0417 -185 -322 200017 018 028 000 00
170230 2054N 08542W 3761 08033 0415 -190 -323 212016 017 027 000 00
170300 2051N 08541W 3759 08035 0415 -190 -325 210015 017 028 000 00
170330 2049N 08540W 3758 08035 0414 -189 -325 204017 017 029 000 00
170400 2047N 08538W 3761 08033 0415 -184 -324 198014 015 028 000 00
170430 2044N 08537W 3759 08035 0415 -184 -324 196012 013 028 001 00
170500 2042N 08536W 3758 08036 0415 -181 -325 194011 012 028 000 00
170530 2039N 08535W 3759 08035 0416 -180 -325 203010 010 027 000 00
170600 2037N 08534W 3759 08035 0416 -180 -325 211010 010 027 000 00
170630 2035N 08532W 3759 08036 0417 -180 -324 214010 010 028 001 00
170700 2032N 08531W 3759 08036 0417 -179 -324 211009 010 029 001 00
170730 2030N 08530W 3758 08038 0418 -182 -325 197009 010 029 001 00
170800 2027N 08529W 3759 08034 0415 -185 -325 199010 010 027 001 00
170830 2025N 08527W 3759 08035 0415 -190 -325 198010 010 028 000 00
170900 2023N 08526W 3759 08035 0415 -187 -326 190009 010 028 000 00
170930 2020N 08525W 3758 08034 0414 -181 -327 187008 008 027 000 00
171000 2018N 08524W 3758 08035 0413 -180 -326 193007 008 028 000 00
$$
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#1007 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:22 pm

It could even get to Cat 5 later on imo. Specially since its a small sized storm.
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#1008 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:22 pm

12z HWRF SFL Landfall:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est096.gif
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Re:

#1009 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:27 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:12z HWRF SFL Landfall:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... est096.gif


Link doesn't work
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#1010 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:28 pm

Speaking of the HWRF, it did well in terms of intensity.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon Discussion

#1011 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:36 pm

Plane on operational altitud. Lets see how strong she is.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1012 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:38 pm

One thing to keep in mind is that wind shear increases significantly just to the north of Rina. Once Rina nears the NE Yucatan on Thursday, wind shear may be in the 40kt range. And over south Florida it may run 50-60 kts Friday through Sunday with the cold front in the vicinity.

Image
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#1013 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:40 pm

Latest close-up hi-res vis suggest a very tight and well established core...I expect recon to find 115-120 per latest imagery if not stronger...
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1014 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:45 pm

I will continue.Let me know.

Plane at operational altitud.

URNT15 KNHC 251740
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 17 20111025
173030 1842N 08528W 6983 03168 0101 +090 -008 072031 033 033 002 00
173100 1842N 08528W 6983 03168 0094 +090 -009 082032 034 034 001 03
173130 1838N 08526W 6973 03175 0085 +098 -008 086038 041 032 001 00
173200 1837N 08525W 6959 03189 0085 +095 -009 081039 040 032 002 00
173230 1835N 08524W 6973 03172 0087 +095 -007 078036 038 032 000 00
173300 1833N 08523W 6965 03182 0085 +095 -008 075033 034 032 003 00
173330 1832N 08521W 6968 03177 0082 +096 -002 074038 042 032 001 00
173400 1830N 08520W 6958 03189 0078 +099 -006 072040 040 033 001 03
173430 1829N 08518W 6967 03172 0085 +091 -002 072035 037 034 001 00
173500 1828N 08517W 6965 03174 0090 +084 +002 074034 034 034 000 00
173530 1827N 08515W 6967 03170 0085 +086 +007 072035 035 034 000 00
173600 1825N 08514W 6974 03165 0089 +087 +009 068036 037 034 001 00
173630 1824N 08512W 6970 03171 0098 +080 +012 067036 037 034 001 00
173700 1823N 08511W 6960 03181 0100 +076 +007 068037 038 033 002 00
173730 1822N 08510W 6971 03166 0093 +083 +004 070040 040 034 000 00
173800 1821N 08509W 6969 03169 0093 +080 +006 068043 044 035 005 03
173830 1820N 08507W 6957 03182 0099 +075 +008 069042 043 035 003 03
173900 1820N 08506W 6969 03167 0087 +082 +006 070043 045 033 002 00
173930 1819N 08504W 6970 03167 0080 +089 +004 072043 044 035 002 00
174000 1818N 08503W 6963 03174 0077 +093 +002 068042 043 035 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1015 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:47 pm

wxman57 wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that wind shear increases significantly just to the north of Rina. Once Rina nears the NE Yucatan on Thursday, wind shear may be in the 40kt range. And over south Florida it may run 50-60 kts Friday through Sunday with the cold front in the vicinity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF



57,

When you you expect the remnants or Rina to pass over or make there closest approach to the keys/sfl?
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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#1016 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:48 pm

12Z GFDL gave up on the FL hit. Takes it into the SE Gulf just NE of the Yucatan on Friday morning then slowly NE during the day Friday before turning SE and moving inland into Havana on Saturday. Then SW and back to the NW Caribbean. Down to 36 kts at 126 hrs.
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... tats.short

How about I just post a graphic?
Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1017 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:48 pm

Recco observation decoded.

Observation Time: Tuesday, 17:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.7N 85.5W
Location: 184 miles (295 km) to the E (86°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 36 knots (From the ENE at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 8°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 0°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,147 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 40° at 30 knots (From the NE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 32 knots (~ 36.8mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

NW INBOUND
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#1018 Postby westwind » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:50 pm

I'm back now and can post obs unless you want to continue cycloneye
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#1019 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:51 pm

Interesting, the GFDL gives up on Florida, while the GFS and HWRF go to FL. Euro will likely kill off Rina again. Still no consensus. The G-IV can't fly soon enough.
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Re:

#1020 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:51 pm

westwind wrote:I'm back now and can post obs unless you want to continue cycloneye


Let me take this first pass and then you take over. :)
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