ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

One thing to keep in mind is that wind shear increases significantly just to the north of Rina. Once Rina nears the NE Yucatan on Thursday, wind shear may be in the 40kt range. And over south Florida it may run 50-60 kts Friday through Sunday with the cold front in the vicinity.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

57,

When you you expect the remnants or Rina to pass over or make there closest approach to the keys/sfl?

Hard to say. GFS suggests as early as Friday afternoon/evening as moisture races up the front. Could be Saturday afternoon/evening.

[westwind]

I'm back now and can post obs unless you want to continue cycloneye

Let me take this first pass and then you take over.

OK no problem.

[cycloneye]

Winds picking up.

URNT15 KNHC 251750
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 18 20111025
174030 1817N 08502W 6967 03170 0074 +095 +002 062041 042 035 002 00
174100 1816N 08500W 6969 03176 0078 +098 +003 058041 041 036 001 00
174130 1815N 08459W 6967 03177 0073 +103 +002 054042 042 037 000 00
174200 1813N 08458W 6968 03175 0077 +098 +002 050042 042 037 001 00
174230 1812N 08457W 6966 03180 0086 +094 +003 047041 042 037 002 00
174300 1811N 08455W 6964 03183 0089 +090 +004 044043 044 038 001 03
174330 1810N 08454W 6970 03174 0087 +092 +005 046041 042 040 001 00
174400 1808N 08453W 6967 03180 0091 +090 +007 045039 040 039 005 00
174430 1807N 08451W 6970 03176 0106 +078 +011 043042 044 041 005 00
174500 1806N 08450W 6963 03181 0110 +073 +009 038046 048 041 005 00
174530 1805N 08449W 6972 03169 0106 +075 +011 036038 042 044 005 00
174600 1803N 08447W 6961 03182 0113 +068 +011 029041 043 046 006 00
174630 1802N 08446W 6970 03170 0127 +057 +014 029042 045 046 007 00
174700 1801N 08445W 6963 03180 0127 +057 +017 044045 047 044 007 00
174730 1800N 08443W 6980 03155 0136 +045 +015 058044 049 048 017 00
174800 1758N 08442W 6971 03165 0122 +053 +019 060048 052 051 015 00
174830 1757N 08441W 6965 03164 0098 +066 +019 057051 053 050 014 00
174900 1756N 08440W 6987 03135 0091 +074 +015 061055 055 045 011 00
174930 1755N 08438W 6963 03163 0099 +063 +015 059055 056 045 007 00
175000 1754N 08437W 6972 03147 0093 +064 +016 062054 055 045 007 00
$$

[tolakram]

Full live 30 frame visible loop, zoom 2. Look at the improvement since this morning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[Macrocane]

Rina has one of the best outflow patterns I've ever seen, it's beautiful.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
RINA...AND WILL PROVIDE DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE
SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Getting close to eye.

URNT15 KNHC 251800
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 19 20111025
175030 1753N 08436W 6966 03150 0095 +059 +016 064054 054 047 007 00
175100 1752N 08435W 6968 03144 0086 +063 +016 067056 057 045 008 00
175130 1751N 08434W 6968 03144 0076 +069 +015 067062 064 046 009 00
175200 1750N 08433W 6965 03143 0075 +067 +016 063058 059 047 007 00
175230 1748N 08431W 6965 03138 0073 +065 +017 058058 060 049 006 00
175300 1747N 08430W 6968 03133 0082 +057 +019 061063 065 048 005 00
175330 1746N 08429W 6967 03126 0074 +055 +017 063068 070 048 006 00
175400 1745N 08428W 6964 03124 0078 +046 +020 062065 067 050 012 03
175430 1744N 08427W 6963 03114 0066 +048 +021 059065 068 055 016 00
175500 1742N 08426W 6960 03115 0065 +045 +026 072070 076 058 020 00
175530 1741N 08425W 6979 03085 0044 +052 +024 076077 081 060 016 00
175600 1740N 08425W 6949 03121 0046 +048 +028 068077 081 056 020 00
175630 1738N 08424W 6972 03077 0016 +064 +027 072073 077 059 009 00
175700 1737N 08423W 6969 03074 0002 +066 +028 074073 074 059 009 00
175730 1735N 08422W 6965 03069 9987 +069 +029 072077 080 065 010 00
175800 1734N 08421W 6963 03062 9976 +066 +032 073084 086 068 015 00
175830 1733N 08421W 6971 03034 9964 +063 +033 074083 085 069 019 00
175900 1731N 08420W 6962 03025 9940 +065 +033 066086 087 057 048 03
175930 1730N 08419W 6968 03008 9920 +066 +037 073087 088 074 047 00
180000 1728N 08419W 6961 02987 9890 +067 +037 078089 092 119 055 03
$$

[adam0983]

All the recent models runs for Hurricane Rina have put the storm near or makes landfall in South Florida. The stronger Rina gets the more northward she will travel. Rina right now is on the same track as Hurricane Wilma. Does anyone think that Rina will travel further north that what NHC track is predicting?

[cycloneye]

Pretty strong winds and it has not reached eye yet.

076 058 020 00
175530 1741N 08425W 6979 03085 0044 +052 +024 076077 081 060 016 00
175600 1740N 08425W 6949 03121 0046 +048 +028 068077 081 056 020 00
175630 1738N 08424W 6972 03077 0016 +064 +027 072073 077 059 009 00
175700 1737N 08423W 6969 03074 0002 +066 +028 074073 074 059 009 00
175730 1735N 08422W 6965 03069 9987 +069 +029 072077 080 065 010 00
175800 1734N 08421W 6963 03062 9976 +066 +032 073084 086 068 015 00
175830 1733N 08421W 6971 03034 9964 +063 +033 074083 085 069 019 00

[eastcoastFL]

is that a scientific fact that the stronger she is the further north she will go? I didn't know about that. Thats cool to learn.

[cycloneye]

119 055 03

That is flagged

[wxman57]

All the recent models runs for Hurricane Rina have put the storm near or makes landfall in South Florida. The stronger Rina gets the more northward she will travel. Rina right now is on the same track as Hurricane Wilma. Does anyone think that Rina will travel further north that what NHC track is predicting?

That statement is incorrect. The vast majority of models are not taking Rina very near Florida. Only the HWRF and GFS now indicate a south Florida impact. This is not a Wilma situation. This time there will be 50-60 kts of shear across south Florida. That said, my track is north of the NHC's at days 4-5, but not by a lot.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure 970 mbs.

URNT15 KNHC 251810
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 20 20111025
180030 1727N 08418W 6952 02979 9826 +104 +042 086073 080 091 019 00
180100 1726N 08417W 6975 02923 9774 +125 +044 076060 064 084 008 03
180130 1724N 08417W 6962 02928 9745 +137 +046 073042 053 074 002 00
180200 1723N 08416W 6975 02903 9723 +149 +046 073026 029 058 002 03
180230 1721N 08415W 6975 02895 9702 +158 +046 090014 018 037 001 03
180300 1719N 08415W 6961 02906 9700 +156 +045 229001 004 023 001 03
180330 1717N 08415W 6976 02891 9707 +150 +048 274011 012 025 002 00
180400 1716N 08415W 6967 02899 9710 +149 +049 264019 025 024 002 03
180430 1714N 08414W 6971 02903 9721 +145 +049 254033 037 028 000 03
180500 1713N 08412W 6970 02914 9733 +143 +051 244047 054 036 001 00
180530 1711N 08411W 6967 02931 9734 +157 +050 242062 063 052 002 00
180600 1710N 08409W 6963 02956 9753 +162 +051 237067 068 072 000 03
180630 1709N 08408W 6967 02984 9790 +157 +052 231081 085 075 000 03
180700 1708N 08406W 6949 03029 9832 +140 +049 232089 091 073 000 03
180730 1706N 08405W 6980 03013 9870 +129 +049 231087 087 071 006 00
180800 1705N 08404W 6962 03049 9904 +117 +048 231084 087 071 005 00
180830 1704N 08402W 6973 03055 9945 +098 +048 230077 078 064 008 00
180900 1703N 08401W 6970 03081 9979 +090 +046 230075 076 062 004 00
180930 1703N 08401W 6970 03081 9994 +094 +042 230073 074 060 002 00
181000 1700N 08358W 6965 03116 0018 +088 +041 232072 073 056 000 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

is that a scientific fact that the stronger she is the further north she will go? I didn't know about that. Thats cool to learn.

No, it's not a scientific fact. In general, low-level winds in the tropics blow from east to west, carrying weak systems more westward than northward. But winds higher up often blow in different directions, generally poleward. Therefore, stronger (i.e., taller) storms, which are driven by winds higher up, tend to turn poleward - IF, and that's a bit IF, if the upper-level winds are blowing poleward in advance of the storm.

In the case of Rina, the upper-level winds across the Gulf will be blowing from west to east - maybe a little south of east by Saturday. That's why the models are predicting a turn to the east and even southeast on Friday/Saturday.

[cycloneye]

970 mbs is lowest pressure on first pass.

[cycloneye]

Ok westwind,take over.

[WYNweather]

Still learning here.. Is it possible the models are picking up info from 97L?

[eastcoastFL]

thanks wxman, appreciate the clarification.

[x-y-no]

Dropsonde: 93 knot wind in the eyewall.