ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

970 mbs is lowest pressure on first pass.

Pretty significant 5mb drop in 3 hours!

[cycloneye]

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Splash Location: 17.4N 84.4W
Splash Time: 18:04Z

Release Location: 17.46N 84.31W View map)
Release Time: 18:00:14Z

Splash Location: 17.41N 84.39W (
Splash Time: 18:04:17Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 30° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 98 knots (113 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 55° (from the NE)
- Wind Speed: 90 knots (104 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 985mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 20° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 98 knots (113 mph)

[eastcoastFL]

sunday is too close to halloween, how fast will it be moving when it heads east. is it going o be haulin butt like wilma was?

[westwind]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251816
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/18:03:00Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
084 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2859 m
D. 119 kt
E. 337 deg 9 nm
F. 077 deg 92 kt
G. 337 deg 9 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 6 C / 3063 m
J. 16 C / 3041 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0418A RINA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z
CLOUDS IN EYE. OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL.
;

[x-y-no]

VDM says 119 knots - that's gotta be typo

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 251816
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL182011
A. 25/18:03:00Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
  084 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2859 m
D. 119 kt
E. 337 deg 9 nm
F. 077 deg 92 kt
G. 337 deg 9 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 6 C / 3063 m
J. 16 C / 3041 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0418A RINA               OB 08
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z
CLOUDS IN EYE.  OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL.
;


[Macrocane]

It did find 119 kt winds but they were flagged so it's weird anyway.

[eastcoastFL]

VDM says 119 knots - that's gotta be typo

Code: Select all

URNT12 KNHC 251816
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL182011
A. 25/18:03:00Z
B. 17 deg 19 min N
  084 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2859 m
D. 119 kt
E. 337 deg 9 nm
F. 077 deg 92 kt
G. 337 deg 9 nm
H. 972 mb
I. 6 C / 3063 m
J. 16 C / 3041 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0418A RINA               OB 08
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NW QUAD 18:00:00Z
CLOUDS IN EYE.  OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL.
;


is that flight level?

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 18:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 18:03:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°19'N 84°15'W (17.3167N 84.25W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 260 miles (419 km) to the E (93°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,859m (9,380ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 119kts (~ 136.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 77° at 92kts (From the ENE at ~ 105.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the NNW (337°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:00:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CLOUDS IN EYE. OCNL MDT TURBC IN EYEWALL.

[jlauderdal]

sunday is too close to halloween, how fast will it be moving when it heads east. is it going o be haulin butt like wilma was?

Wilma was around 25, i bet this is faster and well to the SSE. wilma rolled thoruhg in the AM and by night the skies were clearing and we had a nice cool night for our first evening of no juice, first of 11 nights for me

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251820
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 21 20111025
181030 1659N 08357W 6967 03127 0039 +081 +041 237071 074 052 002 00
181100 1658N 08356W 6968 03133 0052 +077 +044 238067 069 052 003 03
181130 1657N 08354W 6965 03145 0058 +079 +043 239067 068 050 002 00
181200 1655N 08353W 6970 03149 0065 +083 +041 238066 068 049 002 00
181230 1654N 08351W 6963 03160 0075 +078 +043 235060 061 051 005 00
181300 1653N 08350W 6966 03160 0098 +062 +046 239056 058 055 017 00
181330 1652N 08349W 6971 03160 0108 +058 +049 234050 052 056 019 00
181400 1650N 08347W 6966 03164 0105 +062 +048 233044 046 053 016 00
181430 1649N 08346W 6967 03165 0091 +073 +048 232039 041 050 004 00
181500 1648N 08344W 6963 03170 0075 +086 +047 231041 043 049 003 00
181530 1647N 08343W 6970 03164 0086 +080 +047 229036 037 048 002 00
181600 1645N 08342W 6970 03164 0085 +083 +043 224036 037 047 000 03
181630 1644N 08340W 6967 03173 0092 +078 +044 215035 036 047 002 03
181700 1643N 08339W 6961 03181 0106 +071 +043 205037 037 047 002 00
181730 1642N 08338W 6971 03173 0098 +081 +040 203035 036 047 002 00
181800 1641N 08337W 6965 03183 0093 +087 +040 199036 040 043 004 00
181830 1640N 08335W 6970 03177 0086 +093 +036 198042 044 041 003 00
181900 1639N 08334W 6963 03188 0101 +083 +037 197042 043 038 005 00
181930 1637N 08333W 6963 03188 0099 +085 +036 194039 040 038 003 00
182000 1636N 08332W 6969 03184 0095 +091 +035 199039 041 037 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

That 119 was flagged.

[tolakram]

180000 1728N 08419W 6961 02987 9890 +067 +037 078089 092 119 055 03

3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable

119 is the SFMR so not sure why they used it. Mistake probably.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Table G-5. HD/HA Data Line Format for HDOB messages

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
01234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
hhmmss LLLLH NNNNNW PPPP GGGGG XXXX sTTT sddd wwwSSS MMM KKK ppp FF
142230 2612N 08752W 7010 03057 9282 +102 +102 141153 166 148 999 00

hhmmss:
Observation time, in hours, minutes and seconds (UTC). The observation time is the midpoint of the 30-s averaging interval used for the record's meteorological data.

LLLLH:
The latitude of the aircraft at the observation time in degrees (LL) and minutes (LL). The hemisphere (H) is given as either N or S.

NNNNNH:
The longitude of the aircraft at the observation time, in degrees (NNN) and minutes (NN). The hemisphere (H) is given as either E or W.

PPPP:
Aircraft static air pressure, in tenths of mb with decimal omitted, at the observation time. If pressure is equal to or greater than 1000 mb the leading 1 is dropped.

GGGGG:
Aircraft geopotential height, in meters, at the observation time.

XXXX:
Extrapolated surface pressure or D-value (30-s average). Encoded as extrapolated surface pressure if aircraft static pressure is 550.0 mb or greater (i.e., flight altitudes at or below 550 mb). Format for extrapolated surface pressure is the same as for static pressure. For flight altitudes higher than 550 mb, XXXX is encoded as the D-value, in meters. Negative D-values are encoded by adding 5000 to the D-value.

s:
Sign of the temperature or dew point (+ or -).

sTTT:
The air temperature in degrees and tenths Celsius, decimal omitted (30-s average).

sddd:
The dew point temperature, in degrees and tenths Celsius, decimal omitted (30-s average).

www:
Wind direction in degrees (30-s average). North winds are coded as 000. 999 indicates missing value.

SSS:
Wind speed, in kt (30-s average). 999 indicates missing value.

MMM:
Maximum 10-second average wind speed occurring within the encoding interval, in kt. 999 indicates missing value.

KKK:
Maximum 10-second average surface wind speed occurring within the encoding interval from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), in kt. 999 indicates missing value.

ppp:
SFMR-derived rain rate, in mm hr-1, evaluated over the 10-s interval chosen for KKK . 999 indicates missing value.

FF:
Quality control flags.

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

[eastcoastFL]

ya i was in port st lucie then. we had no juice for 4 days i live across from a hospital but others were 2 3 weeks. i remember it was cold and windy after she came thru. anyone else notice that hurricanes at least in my memory post 2004 come thru only on the weekends?

[GCANE]

Looks like a pin-hole eye forming:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ft.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Jan,why did they put 972 mbs at VDM as lowest,but that set as I pointed out in red was 970 the lowest?

[MWatkins]

is that a scientific fact that the stronger she is the further north she will go? I didn't know about that. Thats cool to learn.

In the case of Rina, the upper-level winds across the Gulf will be blowing from west to east - maybe a little south of east by Saturday. That's why the models are predicting a turn to the east and even southeast on Friday/Saturday.

That is factually incorrect.

I've looked at all of the 12Z guidance except the Euro, and the models are not all showing a south/east turn:

GFS and HWRF now suggesting a South Florida landfall
GFDL now hooks Rina south and loops it back westward (if you recall, GFDL did this several runs with Wilma as well)
NOGAPS takes it in to the Yucatan and it never comes out
12Z UKMET hooks it on a NE heading in 3-4 days then dissipates it west of Florida
The Canadian looses the low level vortex just north of the Yucatan

So as of now there is only one model, the GFDL, that shows this south/east bend that, supposedly, all of the models are advertising. That's a model, not the models.

And, I would be suspicious of the GFDL because Rina is already north of it's 6 hour verification point, and it takes Rina due west or even south of west for the next 24 hours.

There are more models on board with a SFL landfall than a system holding together and hooking south/west.

To me there are really 3 options in play:

Rina moves west into the Yucatan and doesn't come out
Rina gets picked up by the trough and comes through the FL Straights/Keys/SFL
Rina dissipates just north of the Yucatan due to sheer/land interaction

Any of these things can still happen. Rina looping SE/S/SW as an intact system seems to be the least likely. Given that setup I'd expect it to dissipate before then.

MW

[wxman57]

I'd agree on the dissipation as Rina interacts with the front on Saturday. Should have said "some of the models" turn it east then south of east".

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251830
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 22 20111025
182030 1635N 08330W 6963 03190 0098 +088 +034 203038 040 038 003 00
182100 1634N 08329W 6966 03190 0101 +089 +034 210039 040 036 004 00
182130 1633N 08328W 6971 03184 0102 +088 +033 210042 042 037 003 00
182200 1632N 08327W 6965 03193 0103 +087 +031 214041 042 034 003 00
182230 1631N 08325W 6970 03189 0108 +086 +032 214038 040 035 004 00
182300 1629N 08324W 6964 03195 0106 +085 +032 214036 037 036 003 00
182330 1628N 08323W 6967 03190 0102 +090 +030 207034 034 036 001 00
182400 1627N 08321W 6969 03189 0110 +084 +031 196035 035 036 001 00
182430 1626N 08320W 6965 03195 0105 +087 +031 194037 038 /// /// 03
182500 1627N 08318W 6966 03194 0108 +086 +031 190038 038 /// /// 03
182530 1629N 08318W 6971 03188 0109 +085 +031 189037 038 036 000 03
182600 1631N 08318W 6967 03192 0113 +081 +033 191036 036 037 004 00
182630 1633N 08317W 6969 03190 0115 +080 +033 191036 037 037 003 00
182700 1635N 08317W 6963 03198 0120 +077 +033 198039 040 037 005 00
182730 1637N 08317W 6967 03188 0118 +077 +034 200041 042 037 008 00
182800 1639N 08317W 6970 03188 0121 +076 +034 195040 040 040 008 00
182830 1641N 08317W 6970 03187 0121 +073 +033 191037 038 038 009 00
182900 1643N 08317W 6966 03190 0105 +085 +032 183038 039 040 008 00
182930 1646N 08316W 6966 03190 0105 +086 +032 183040 041 040 007 00
183000 1648N 08316W 6968 03188 0111 +081 +033 182040 041 039 007 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Live loop, zoom 4, gives a good view of the jet streak just north of Rina. Really helping to vent the system at the moment, but really hostile once Rina moves north. IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Speed up the loop for the full effect. I love rapid scan images, too bad I have no means to save them.

[xironman]

Looks to me on the GDFL that she is so torn up from going over the Yucatan that she can be disrupted by shear and dry air and loses her coupling. Hence no longer dragged along by the upper levels.