ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Shuriken

Re: Re:

#1181 Postby Shuriken » Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:48 pm

A low tracking from west to east to the north of Havana subjects the city to a strong onshore fetch -- and its seawall is pretty crappy.
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Shuriken wrote:This track is a storm surge disaster for Havana.

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/7062 ... w5nlsm.gif


Storm surge from just a tropical storm isn't that bad, especially if the winds are coming from over land and pushing water away from the coast with their counter clockwise motion.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1182 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:49 pm

I will get graphics for a while...
Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1183 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:58 pm

Image
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#1184 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:00 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252247
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 17 20111025
223730 1741N 08435W 6925 03104 9932 +090 //// 071086 086 060 022 01
223800 1739N 08434W 6968 03034 9908 +098 +095 065089 092 066 053 03
223830 1737N 08433W 7026 02941 9893 +090 //// 055093 095 070 066 01
223900 1736N 08432W 6927 03027 9846 +091 //// 061101 103 085 061 05
223930 1734N 08431W 6885 03030 9774 +099 //// 069096 099 102 029 05
224000 1732N 08430W 6883 02982 9688 +131 +132 060062 076 103 019 03
224030 1731N 08429W 7002 02821 9627 +183 +104 057037 050 030 000 00
224100 1729N 08428W 6988 02839 9640 +171 +100 085015 017 031 000 03
224130 1727N 08427W 6991 02839 9655 +162 +098 107006 008 027 002 00
224200 1725N 08427W 6992 02840 9651 +169 +092 196011 013 023 000 03
224230 1723N 08426W 6975 02867 9632 +192 +083 218028 032 023 001 00
224300 1721N 08425W 6978 02873 9646 +192 +087 233042 055 037 002 00
224330 1720N 08424W 6998 02878 9683 +184 +093 233069 078 /// /// 03
224400 1719N 08421W 7017 02884 9731 +176 +070 222090 092 /// /// 03
224430 1720N 08418W 6923 03032 9795 +138 +067 205093 095 /// /// 03
224500 1723N 08417W 6944 03012 9817 +127 +062 197099 100 /// /// 03
224530 1726N 08417W 6986 02940 9776 +143 +071 183097 098 084 000 03
224600 1727N 08419W 6971 02915 9713 +159 +100 174086 094 /// /// 03
224630 1728N 08422W 6958 02904 9668 +174 +091 166054 063 075 003 03
224700 1727N 08424W 6940 02910 9659 +165 +091 158032 035 040 000 03

Flying around the center.
Extrapolated SLP: 963.
Maximum flight level wind: 103 kt.
Maximum SFMR wind: 103 kt (suspected).
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1185 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:01 pm

Just going to throw my track in for discussion...
Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1186 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:02 pm

Pressure drops a bit more since last pass by air force plane that was (970 mbs)

NOAA plane just made first pass with Extrapolated pressure of 966 mbs.
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#1187 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:07 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252257
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 18 20111025
224730 1726N 08426W 6942 02902 9664 +154 +096 152017 023 024 001 03
224800 1725N 08428W 6926 02920 9660 +155 +092 260005 008 019 002 00
224830 1724N 08430W 6943 02902 9658 +163 +087 303015 020 /// /// 03
224900 1722N 08430W 6974 02880 9683 +156 +097 292034 039 051 004 03
224930 1720N 08429W 7116 02725 9691 +173 +124 286051 056 055 005 00
225000 1718N 08428W 7262 02570 9700 +205 +104 271067 082 058 001 00
225030 1716N 08426W 7333 02536 9739 +223 +072 260082 088 073 003 00
225100 1714N 08425W 7434 02454 9821 +178 +128 250076 080 075 005 00
225130 1712N 08424W 7467 02447 9886 +150 +119 241080 085 071 006 00
225200 1710N 08423W 7497 02438 9921 +141 +131 249068 070 059 004 00
225230 1709N 08422W 7525 02423 9941 +139 +138 245062 065 063 005 00
225300 1707N 08421W 7507 02457 9958 +137 +140 247056 061 058 006 00
225330 1705N 08420W 7511 02469 9979 +133 //// 247055 059 053 003 01
225400 1703N 08418W 7505 02488 9996 +131 //// 247051 054 050 004 01
225430 1701N 08417W 7511 02491 0009 +128 //// 253050 050 046 004 01
225500 1700N 08416W 7498 02512 0022 +126 +123 255050 050 047 003 00
225530 1658N 08415W 7501 02514 0031 +121 //// 260051 054 042 004 01
225600 1656N 08414W 7507 02514 0042 +120 +122 261048 050 040 001 00
225630 1654N 08413W 7484 02548 0048 +123 +120 254039 041 039 003 00
225700 1652N 08412W 7488 02549 0052 +126 +111 252037 039 036 002 00
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1188 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:08 pm

Image
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#1189 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:16 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252307
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 19 20111025
225730 1650N 08410W 7508 02529 0060 +120 +118 251036 038 035 002 00
225800 1648N 08409W 7512 02527 0059 +126 +115 247034 034 038 003 00
225830 1647N 08408W 7512 02530 0061 +127 +116 247033 034 039 001 00
225900 1645N 08407W 7512 02532 0063 +125 +125 250034 037 041 004 00
225930 1643N 08406W 7526 02518 0064 +126 +127 257033 035 040 008 00
230000 1641N 08405W 7523 02523 0065 +127 +131 251028 029 042 009 00
230030 1640N 08404W 7503 02550 0064 +131 //// 242029 030 042 006 01
230100 1638N 08403W 7518 02537 0070 +130 +132 245031 032 042 005 00
230130 1636N 08402W 7519 02538 0072 +132 +134 240031 032 044 005 00
230200 1634N 08401W 7516 02544 0073 +133 +133 235027 032 043 005 00
230230 1632N 08400W 7520 02538 0074 +133 +126 232021 024 042 002 00
230300 1631N 08359W 7520 02539 0076 +133 +115 226020 021 043 002 00
230330 1629N 08358W 7519 02542 0078 +134 +104 215022 025 042 001 00
230400 1627N 08357W 7519 02544 0077 +139 +090 209025 026 042 000 00
230430 1625N 08355W 7520 02545 0081 +137 +091 212026 027 042 000 00
230500 1624N 08354W 7520 02548 0087 +133 +093 213025 025 040 000 00
230530 1622N 08353W 7522 02546 0091 +129 +096 214024 025 041 000 00
230600 1620N 08352W 7522 02547 0093 +128 +095 213023 024 040 001 00
230630 1619N 08351W 7522 02549 0098 +125 +098 218022 023 039 001 00
230700 1617N 08350W 7522 02549 0100 +123 +102 226022 022 038 000 00
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#1190 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:24 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252317
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 20 20111025
230730 1615N 08349W 7522 02549 0093 +132 +099 226019 021 036 000 00
230800 1613N 08348W 7523 02552 0087 +141 +096 218018 019 035 001 00
230830 1612N 08347W 7521 02554 0088 +142 +093 211016 018 035 002 00
230900 1610N 08346W 7523 02554 0093 +138 +096 206015 017 036 002 03
230930 1609N 08345W 7522 02555 0094 +137 +093 200016 017 /// /// 03
231000 1609N 08343W 7523 02554 0094 +137 +093 202018 019 /// /// 03
231030 1611N 08342W 7525 02552 0096 +134 +094 197020 020 036 001 00
231100 1613N 08341W 7523 02553 0096 +133 +096 194020 020 036 001 00
231130 1615N 08341W 7524 02552 0096 +134 +097 200021 021 036 001 00
231200 1617N 08340W 7522 02553 0095 +133 +101 206023 024 036 001 00
231230 1619N 08339W 7523 02550 0095 +132 +099 200024 024 035 000 00
231300 1622N 08339W 7525 02547 0095 +131 +098 195024 025 035 001 00
231330 1624N 08338W 7524 02547 0094 +130 +094 189024 025 035 001 00
231400 1626N 08338W 7525 02544 0094 +129 +094 185025 025 035 001 00
231430 1628N 08337W 7524 02545 0093 +130 +093 186027 028 036 001 00
231500 1630N 08337W 7524 02544 0092 +130 +093 186028 029 037 001 00
231530 1633N 08336W 7523 02544 0092 +128 +095 183029 029 038 000 00
231600 1635N 08336W 7525 02542 0092 +127 +098 179030 031 039 000 00
231630 1637N 08335W 7525 02538 0089 +128 +099 180032 033 039 001 00
231700 1639N 08335W 7525 02539 0088 +128 +098 181034 035 039 000 00
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#1191 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:34 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252327
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 21 20111025
231730 1641N 08334W 7524 02541 0090 +127 +097 179034 035 040 001 00
231800 1644N 08333W 7525 02538 0088 +129 +095 176035 035 040 000 00
231830 1646N 08333W 7525 02539 0086 +130 +097 175036 037 040 000 00
231900 1648N 08332W 7526 02538 0082 +135 +093 174037 038 041 001 00
231930 1650N 08332W 7526 02537 0081 +135 +093 173038 038 038 002 00
232000 1653N 08331W 7525 02538 0081 +135 +093 173037 038 039 001 00
232030 1655N 08330W 7523 02542 0086 +130 +095 174037 038 039 001 00
232100 1657N 08330W 7525 02538 0083 +133 +094 173039 039 038 001 00
232130 1659N 08329W 7526 02536 0084 +131 +093 175038 039 036 002 00
232200 1702N 08329W 7527 02533 0086 +129 +093 172036 037 037 001 00
232230 1704N 08328W 7525 02536 0088 +126 +098 164037 039 037 001 00
232300 1706N 08328W 7526 02535 0092 +121 +103 160040 040 035 001 00
232330 1708N 08327W 7528 02536 0094 +122 +102 160042 042 034 000 00
232400 1710N 08327W 7526 02537 0092 +122 +104 156044 045 036 001 00
232430 1713N 08326W 7526 02535 0091 +123 +104 157045 045 034 002 00
232500 1715N 08326W 7526 02538 0094 +122 +104 157044 045 034 000 00
232530 1717N 08325W 7525 02537 0094 +121 +103 156044 044 031 001 00
232600 1720N 08324W 7524 02537 0094 +120 +103 157043 043 032 001 00
232630 1722N 08324W 7525 02536 0093 +119 +104 156043 043 031 001 00
232700 1724N 08323W 7526 02535 0094 +118 +105 157043 044 031 001 00
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#1192 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:35 pm

000
URNT12 KWBC 252313
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/2248Z
B. 17 DEG 26 MIN N
84 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2830 M
D. 103 KT
E. 348 DEG 6 NM
F. 061 DEG 103 KT
G. 342 DEG 11 NM
H. 966 MB
I. 10 C/3030 M
J. 20 C/3036 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0518A RINA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NW QUAD 2239Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 100KT SE QUAD 2245Z
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#1193 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:36 pm

We may have a Cat 3 at 8 PM EDT

URNT12 KWBC 252313
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/2248Z
B. 17 DEG 26 MIN N
84 DEG 28 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2830 M
D. 103 KT
E. 348 DEG 6 NM
F. 061 DEG 103 KT
G. 342 DEG 11 NM
H. 966 MB
I. 10 C/3030 M
J. 20 C/3036 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0518A RINA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NW QUAD 2239Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 100KT SE QUAD 2245Z
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1194 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:36 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1195 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:38 pm

Image
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#1196 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:46 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 252337
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 22 20111025
232730 1726N 08322W 7526 02535 0092 +120 +105 155044 044 029 001 00
232800 1729N 08322W 7527 02532 0087 +125 +102 155042 044 029 001 00
232830 1731N 08321W 7524 02537 0082 +131 +096 151042 042 030 000 00
232900 1733N 08320W 7505 02559 0080 +133 +089 149041 043 028 003 00
232930 1735N 08320W 7508 02554 0081 +130 +096 147042 043 028 000 00
233000 1738N 08319W 7508 02555 0082 +129 +099 145042 042 030 000 00
233030 1740N 08319W 7508 02555 0081 +131 +096 145041 042 030 001 00
233100 1742N 08318W 7507 02557 0087 +125 +099 143040 041 030 001 00
233130 1745N 08318W 7508 02558 0088 +126 +098 141039 040 030 000 00
233200 1747N 08317W 7509 02557 0089 +126 +098 140040 041 031 002 00
233230 1749N 08317W 7507 02559 0088 +128 +095 139040 041 031 001 00
233300 1751N 08316W 7508 02560 0090 +128 +090 134040 040 030 001 00
233330 1753N 08315W 7508 02561 0089 +130 +089 132039 039 029 001 00
233400 1756N 08315W 7508 02563 0093 +128 +081 128039 040 030 001 00
233430 1758N 08314W 7509 02561 0098 +124 +081 126039 039 028 000 00
233500 1800N 08314W 7509 02563 0098 +125 +081 128038 038 028 000 00
233530 1802N 08313W 7508 02564 0098 +126 +080 125038 039 028 000 00
233600 1804N 08313W 7510 02561 0092 +132 +078 127038 038 026 001 00
233630 1806N 08313W 7510 02562 0094 +128 +081 125038 038 /// /// 03
233700 1808N 08315W 7513 02558 0095 +128 +080 120038 039 /// /// 03
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories

#1197 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
THE COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1198 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:49 pm

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon

#1199 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Oct 25, 2011 6:57 pm

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Re: ATL: RINA - Models

#1200 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 25, 2011 7:03 pm

The model swapping continues. At 12Z, the HWRF hit South Florida and the GFDL did a loop in the NW Caribbean. Now at 18Z, the HWRF does a loop in the NW Caribbean and the GFDL hits South Florida :roll:

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