ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

URNT12 KWBC 260125
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/0057Z
B. 17 DEG 23 MIN N
84 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 85 KT
E. 194 DEG 9 NM
F. 295 DEG 86 KT
G. 194 DEG 10 NM
H. 967 MB
I. 15 C/2479 M
J. 23 C/2455 M
K. 12 C/NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0518A RINA OB 27
MAX FL WINDS 103 KT 2329Z NW QUAD
MAX OUTBOUND FL WINDS 95 KT NE QUAD 0100Z
SONDE SPLASHED AT 967MB WITH 16 KT SURFACE WINDS

[fci]

In regards to the 0z model runs..

All the times are EST and approximate.

GFS
*00z = 11:30 PM

GEFS (GFS Ensembles)
*00z = 12:45 AM

NAM
*00z = 9:30 PM

UKMET
*00z = 2:00 AM

Canadian GGEM
*00z = 2:00 AM

Canadian GGEM Ensembles
*00z = 4:45 AM

ECMWF
*00z = 3:20 AM

NOGAPS
*00z = 2:00 AM

So what you are basically saying is that it willbe a very late night!

[Bocadude85]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect South Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane.

I would be willing to bet money that this is no more then a 40mph TS if she hits S Fla.

[AdamFirst]

Just posted by Bryan Norcross on Facebook

Bryan Norcross
There is no change in the trend with the evening models. The upper air pattern should become less favorable by late tomorrow so a weakening trend should begin. That doesn't mean, however, that Rina isn't a significant threat to the Yucatan. Everybody there needs to have a plan of action to stay safe and be ready to move if necessary. After that the forecast gets murkier, but the odds favor Rina being dramatically weaker by the end of the week. The only way I see the storm being a significant threat to Florida is if it starts moving north quickly. It has to beat the cold front to the southern Gulf and get caught in the flow AHEAD of the front. If it dawdles, as expected, it will be more likely merge with front or get deflected toward Cuba. Still, the combination of the front, the tropical moisture, and/or whatever is left of Rina could make a nasty wet weekend across southern Florida and the Keys. Until we are sure the storm is not going to move north quickly, everybody in South Florida needs to pay close attention.

[AdamFirst]

Will the 00z models have the Gulfstream data?

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260127
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 33 20111026
011730 1829N 08353W 7531 02549 0116 +120 +097 105041 041 033 000 00
011800 1831N 08352W 7515 02567 0115 +121 +099 105039 040 032 001 00
011830 1832N 08351W 7517 02569 0115 +122 +103 106038 039 031 001 00
011900 1834N 08350W 7524 02560 0114 +125 +097 109038 039 031 001 00
011930 1836N 08349W 7523 02563 0117 +126 +091 102034 035 031 000 00
012000 1837N 08348W 7527 02561 0118 +127 +086 104034 035 031 000 03
012030 1839N 08348W 7525 02563 0122 +122 +090 106034 034 /// /// 03
012100 1841N 08349W 7523 02566 0123 +122 +087 106035 035 029 000 00
012130 1843N 08351W 7520 02570 0119 +129 +081 101037 038 029 001 00
012200 1844N 08353W 7524 02566 0117 +130 +075 099037 038 032 001 00
012230 1845N 08355W 7525 02565 0120 +128 +075 099037 038 031 000 00
012300 1847N 08357W 7524 02565 0120 +128 +079 099036 036 031 000 00
012330 1848N 08359W 7523 02569 0119 +128 +091 101038 042 032 004 00
012400 1849N 08400W 7522 02569 0121 +127 +084 100036 037 029 001 00
012430 1851N 08402W 7513 02580 0124 +125 +073 099036 037 029 000 00
012500 1852N 08404W 7510 02583 0122 +127 +072 096035 036 030 000 00
012530 1854N 08407W 7488 02609 0121 +127 +079 093034 034 030 000 00
012600 1855N 08409W 7516 02577 0122 +127 +084 095035 035 029 000 00
012630 1857N 08410W 7521 02573 0124 +128 +080 097034 034 029 000 00
012700 1859N 08412W 7519 02573 0120 +128 +091 093034 035 028 002 00

[fci]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect South Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane.

I would be willing to bet money that this is no more then a 40mph TS if she hits S Fla.

I am on the same side of the bet as you.
Count me as a skeptic.
Hopefully the model runs with Gulfstream data will make it more clear.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully the model runs with Gulfstream data will make it more clear.

Bingo!. The 00z model package will be crucial after they got the feed from the jet.

[SootyTern]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect South Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane.

I would be willing to bet money that this is no more then a 40mph TS if she hits S Fla.

I am on the same side of the bet as you.
Count me as a skeptic.
Hopefully the model runs with Gulfstream data will make it more clear.

Probably would be hard to find somebody to take the other side of that bet.

[gatorcane]

This evening's satellite presentation definitely not looking as impressive as earlier this afternoon, maybe the ECMWF is right after all, but too early for me to say so, could just be that it entrained some of the daytime dry air from land, I noticed that coastal areas of Honduras have been reporting dewpoints in the 60s.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There is so much dry air lurking just to her north. I definitely would not discount the ECMWF prediction which calls for dissipation. Once it weakens it should get blocked and turn to the east towards Cuba then maybe southeast as a huge continental high moves down into the Southeastern GOM this weekend. Conditions are really going to become downright hostile

[Dave]

NOAA2:

[Macrocane]

URNT15 KWBC 260137
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 34 20111026
012730 1900N 08414W 7518 02574 0120 +129 +080 089033 033 026 001 00
012800 1902N 08416W 7519 02573 0119 +130 +070 089033 033 029 001 00
012830 1903N 08419W 7520 02571 0121 +128 +071 089032 033 029 000 00
012900 1905N 08421W 7522 02570 0123 +128 +071 089031 032 028 000 00
012930 1906N 08423W 7520 02574 0123 +130 +070 091031 032 029 000 00
013000 1908N 08425W 7520 02574 0117 +137 +060 096032 032 028 000 00
013030 1909N 08427W 7518 02576 0120 +133 +068 092032 032 028 000 00
013100 1911N 08429W 7523 02571 0118 +134 +078 088030 031 029 000 00
013130 1912N 08431W 7521 02571 0116 +134 +079 086030 032 030 000 00
013200 1914N 08433W 7521 02573 0120 +132 +071 091032 032 030 000 00
013230 1915N 08435W 7521 02573 0120 +132 +076 092032 033 031 000 00
013300 1917N 08437W 7522 02571 0122 +129 +085 092034 034 030 000 00
013330 1918N 08439W 7522 02570 0125 +125 +083 092033 034 029 001 00
013400 1920N 08441W 7520 02575 0128 +123 +092 087030 030 030 001 00
013430 1922N 08443W 7518 02577 0129 +121 +094 080030 031 030 001 00
013500 1923N 08445W 7513 02582 0131 +119 +098 070028 028 030 001 00
013530 1925N 08447W 7512 02584 0124 +126 +093 071029 029 029 000 00
013600 1926N 08449W 7513 02584 0121 +130 +088 073029 029 030 000 00
013630 1928N 08450W 7514 02580 0118 +133 +071 077031 031 029 000 00
013700 1930N 08452W 7514 02581 0118 +134 +072 072030 032 029 001 00

[Macrocane]

Plane seems to be ascending.

000
URNT15 KWBC 260147
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 35 20111026
013730 1932N 08454W 7513 02584 0120 +134 +072 067027 028 028 000 03
013800 1933N 08456W 7513 02585 0116 +140 +070 072028 029 /// /// 03
013830 1933N 08458W 7514 02585 0115 +140 +072 070030 030 028 000 00
013900 1934N 08501W 7514 02584 0118 +138 +072 069029 030 024 000 00
013930 1935N 08503W 7513 02584 0120 +133 +074 073028 029 026 000 00
014000 1937N 08505W 7513 02585 0122 +134 +073 072028 028 024 000 00
014030 1938N 08507W 7513 02586 0123 +133 +075 073028 029 024 000 00
014100 1940N 08509W 7515 02585 0121 +136 +071 074029 030 024 000 00
014130 1941N 08511W 7515 02581 0120 +135 +070 075030 032 024 002 00
014200 1942N 08513W 7515 02581 0125 +129 +077 079031 031 026 000 00
014230 1944N 08515W 7518 02580 0128 +127 +078 081029 029 028 000 00
014300 1946N 08516W 7513 02586 0130 +125 +084 082026 028 027 001 03
014330 1948N 08517W 7513 02586 0129 +127 +083 080027 027 028 000 00
014400 1950N 08517W 7514 02585 0130 +125 +089 076024 026 028 000 00
014430 1953N 08517W 7514 02585 0130 +124 +097 073023 024 027 000 00
014500 1955N 08517W 7479 02625 0130 +121 +095 073023 025 026 000 00
014530 1957N 08517W 7267 02865 0130 +110 +068 076023 024 027 001 00
014600 1959N 08517W 7082 03081 0128 +098 +054 076027 029 026 001 00
014630 2001N 08518W 6887 03314 0127 +085 +049 084025 026 027 000 00
014700 2003N 08518W 6727 03507 0122 +075 +052 092023 023 029 001 00

[Dave]

This mission is over Macrocane...another one leaves around 0300Z

[Dave]

Next mission...

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0618A RINA
C. 26/0300Z
D. 17.9N 85.2W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[Dave]

Next mission...

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0618A RINA
C. 26/0300Z
D. 17.9N 85.2W
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

So was there enough data to support upgrading to Category 3 or do you think they will hold at 110?

[Sanibel]

You could see the edge of the upper outflow cirrus just north of us today. Looks like Rina is running off straight SST's and will get category 3.

[Dave]

AF 304 on runway...Mission 06 into Rina

000
URNT15 KNHC 260224
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 01 20111026
021430 3024N 08856W 0200 00001 0203 +180 +102 360000 000 /// /// 03
021500 3024N 08856W 0200 00001 0203 +180 +102 360000 000 /// /// 03
021530 3024N 08856W 0200 00001 0203 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 03
021600 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// 0199 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 23
021630 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// 0195 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 23
021700 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// 0195 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 23
021730 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// 0195 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 23
021800 3024N 08856W 0200 ///// 0195 +180 +101 360000 000 /// /// 23
021830 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0195 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
021900 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
021930 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
022000 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
022030 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0198 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
022100 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
022130 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +100 360000 000 /// /// 23
022200 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0197 +180 +099 360000 000 /// /// 23
022230 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0196 +180 +099 360000 000 /// /// 23
022300 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0195 +180 +099 360000 000 /// /// 23
022330 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0193 +180 +099 360000 000 /// /// 23
022400 3024N 08856W 0199 ///// 0191 +180 +099 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
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