ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260454
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 16 20111026
044430 2031N 08530W 3758 08041 0419 -200 -541 226005 006 026 000 03
044500 2029N 08529W 3758 08040 0419 -197 -536 238008 009 028 000 00
044530 2026N 08528W 3755 08048 0421 -198 -537 250009 009 028 000 00
044600 2024N 08527W 3762 08034 0419 -197 -540 251008 008 028 001 00
044630 2022N 08526W 3758 08040 0418 -198 -541 263006 008 028 000 00
044700 2019N 08524W 3759 08037 0417 -204 -541 299006 006 027 001 00
044730 2017N 08523W 3761 08036 0418 -199 -539 271007 008 028 000 03
044800 2015N 08522W 3758 08039 0418 -194 -541 261008 008 027 001 00
044830 2012N 08521W 3759 08034 0417 -191 -548 275007 008 028 000 03
044900 2010N 08521W 3815 07942 0420 -185 -551 306006 007 032 001 03
044930 2007N 08522W 3972 07652 0409 -170 -550 351011 013 031 001 03
045000 2005N 08524W 4159 07303 0390 -146 -540 349014 015 031 001 00
045030 2002N 08525W 4349 06963 0370 -117 -506 357010 012 031 000 00
045100 2000N 08526W 4535 06650 0355 -100 -387 013007 010 030 000 00
045130 1958N 08527W 4719 06317 0328 -081 -159 058009 012 032 001 00
045200 1956N 08528W 4915 06000 0301 -064 -069 089011 012 032 002 00
045230 1953N 08529W 5117 05684 0284 -050 //// 072015 017 /// /// 05
045300 1951N 08530W 5337 05350 0264 -036 //// 080015 018 034 006 05
045330 1949N 08531W 5519 05088 0111 -037 //// 089022 025 040 014 05
045400 1947N 08531W 5728 04789 0128 -021 //// 111027 030 043 006 01
$$

Descending..

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260504
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 17 20111026
045430 1945N 08532W 5932 04508 0136 -006 -019 110034 035 039 005 03
045500 1943N 08533W 6169 04188 0128 +015 -015 101032 033 /// /// 03
045530 1941N 08534W 6422 03863 0125 +038 -003 094027 028 /// /// 03
045600 1939N 08535W 6655 03577 0113 +063 +006 090025 026 032 001 03
045630 1937N 08536W 6793 03398 0114 +067 +034 080022 023 031 001 00
045700 1935N 08537W 6930 03233 0110 +077 +052 081022 023 029 002 00
045730 1933N 08538W 6965 03190 0106 +079 +056 079022 023 028 000 00
045800 1931N 08538W 6967 03185 0109 +079 +056 076022 023 029 001 00
045830 1929N 08539W 6967 03184 0106 +080 +051 078023 023 030 001 00
045900 1928N 08540W 6966 03185 0106 +079 +050 076023 025 030 000 00
045930 1926N 08541W 6970 03179 0105 +084 +035 076023 024 031 001 00
050000 1924N 08542W 6966 03184 0105 +080 +033 075023 025 031 000 00
050030 1922N 08543W 6967 03184 0103 +083 +029 076025 025 031 000 00
050100 1920N 08544W 6968 03183 0103 +084 +026 077026 026 032 000 03
050130 1918N 08545W 6966 03184 0106 +080 +028 079026 027 031 001 00
050200 1916N 08545W 6969 03182 0105 +080 +028 080029 030 032 001 00
050230 1914N 08546W 6965 03185 0105 +080 +024 078029 030 032 000 03
050300 1912N 08547W 6970 03178 0103 +082 +021 079029 030 031 000 03
050330 1910N 08548W 6967 03181 0103 +081 +018 078029 029 031 000 00
050400 1908N 08549W 6966 03182 0105 +080 +018 077029 029 031 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260515
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 18 20111026
050430 1906N 08550W 6969 03179 0106 +080 +018 075030 031 031 000 00
050500 1904N 08551W 6968 03182 0104 +081 +019 077031 032 031 001 00
050530 1902N 08551W 6964 03185 0106 +080 +021 070028 029 032 001 00
050600 1900N 08552W 6961 03184 0107 +077 +026 066030 033 034 001 00
050630 1858N 08553W 6975 03171 0110 +075 +032 075028 030 034 001 00
050700 1857N 08554W 6967 03177 0102 +078 +027 074031 033 034 001 00
050730 1855N 08555W 6967 03177 0101 +079 +024 076032 032 035 000 00
050800 1853N 08556W 6967 03176 0103 +077 +019 080033 034 035 001 00
050830 1851N 08556W 6968 03174 0112 +071 +015 070031 033 034 002 00
050900 1849N 08557W 6963 03182 0118 +066 +021 072030 030 032 001 00
050930 1848N 08558W 6974 03168 0113 +069 +031 077030 031 032 002 00
051000 1846N 08559W 6966 03178 0114 +068 +037 073031 032 033 001 00
051030 1844N 08600W 6968 03176 0110 +070 +039 071034 035 033 001 00
051100 1842N 08600W 6969 03173 0113 +067 +039 073033 034 /// /// 03
051130 1841N 08559W 6969 03177 0113 +070 +037 079035 037 030 001 03
051200 1840N 08558W 6967 03176 0107 +073 +032 080036 038 030 001 00
051230 1839N 08557W 6968 03173 0101 +077 +031 077037 038 031 000 00
051300 1838N 08556W 6963 03180 0103 +075 +033 071036 037 031 000 00
051330 1836N 08554W 6969 03171 0114 +063 +038 065032 036 032 007 00
051400 1835N 08553W 6959 03189 0118 +063 +060 060032 035 031 009 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 260517
97779 05134 40186 85918 30400 07033 07049 /3136
RMK AF304 0618A RINA OB 07
SWS = 30 KTS
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260524
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 19 20111026
051430 1834N 08552W 6962 03178 0091 +079 +057 076038 038 033 003 00
051500 1833N 08551W 6967 03171 0090 +080 +051 075038 039 032 001 00
051530 1832N 08549W 6964 03176 0095 +075 +058 070039 040 034 000 00
051600 1831N 08548W 6968 03169 0095 +075 +064 071043 044 034 001 00
051630 1830N 08547W 6967 03169 0092 +076 +062 072043 044 033 002 00
051700 1828N 08546W 6964 03174 0099 +070 +067 069039 040 033 003 00
051730 1827N 08545W 6967 03168 0091 +079 +060 076038 038 032 003 00
051800 1826N 08543W 6965 03174 0086 +083 +049 072041 043 031 001 00
051830 1825N 08542W 6970 03167 0086 +083 +039 072043 044 030 001 00
051900 1824N 08541W 6961 03177 0089 +081 +034 070043 045 030 000 00
051930 1823N 08540W 6968 03166 0097 +073 +032 069041 045 030 002 00
052000 1822N 08539W 6960 03182 0093 +075 +041 067041 044 032 004 00
052030 1821N 08537W 6963 03171 0084 +080 +040 068045 047 032 002 00
052100 1819N 08536W 6967 03165 0085 +080 +030 066047 048 032 001 00
052130 1818N 08535W 6965 03166 0094 +072 +028 064048 050 034 005 00
052200 1817N 08534W 6969 03162 0091 +075 +029 063049 050 035 000 00
052230 1816N 08533W 6968 03161 0089 +075 +025 064051 052 036 002 00
052300 1815N 08531W 6965 03165 0091 +073 +023 062054 054 036 003 00
052330 1814N 08530W 6967 03161 0094 +070 +022 060053 053 036 003 00
052400 1813N 08529W 6970 03154 0097 +066 +026 061053 054 037 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 260535
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 20 20111026
052430 1812N 08528W 6965 03158 0103 +058 +032 063055 055 035 004 00
052500 1810N 08527W 6965 03157 0096 +061 +044 070056 056 037 005 00
052530 1809N 08526W 6963 03157 0088 +066 +058 066051 053 039 007 00
052600 1808N 08524W 6970 03150 0070 +079 +066 061045 047 043 007 00
052630 1807N 08523W 6971 03152 0071 +080 +074 060040 042 047 006 00
052700 1806N 08522W 6968 03158 0066 +085 +078 053036 037 050 005 00
052730 1805N 08521W 6965 03165 0056 +094 +079 052039 042 052 005 00
052800 1803N 08519W 6969 03152 0058 +088 +081 055041 045 050 005 00
052830 1802N 08518W 6974 03144 0068 +068 //// 051049 057 046 009 01
052900 1801N 08517W 6966 03147 //// +052 //// 061050 052 048 011 01
052930 1800N 08516W 6973 03135 //// +058 //// 064048 049 048 009 01
053000 1759N 08515W 6970 03135 0060 +067 //// 065054 056 047 007 01
053030 1758N 08513W 6963 03140 0054 +072 //// 066057 058 046 007 01
053100 1757N 08512W 6969 03126 0052 +070 //// 069060 061 047 008 01
053130 1756N 08511W 6969 03124 //// +070 //// 067060 062 049 007 01
053200 1755N 08510W 6968 03121 //// +066 //// 067066 068 050 006 01
053230 1753N 08509W 6968 03113 0027 +068 //// 067069 070 052 007 01
053300 1752N 08508W 6971 03106 //// +055 //// 067072 073 052 015 01
053330 1751N 08507W 6964 03107 //// +044 //// 063072 073 056 016 01
053400 1750N 08506W 6966 03095 //// +045 //// 066075 080 057 016 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260544
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 21 20111026
053430 1749N 08505W 6963 03092 //// +052 //// 074074 076 059 015 01
053500 1748N 08504W 6972 03070 //// +055 //// 079077 078 060 015 01
053530 1747N 08503W 6966 03070 //// +062 //// 080079 080 060 014 01
053600 1747N 08502W 6973 03055 //// +061 //// 081080 083 065 016 01
053630 1746N 08501W 6961 03057 //// +050 //// 080083 085 067 019 01
053700 1745N 08500W 6956 03054 //// +053 //// 081091 093 067 038 01
053730 1744N 08459W 6956 03039 //// +050 //// 081089 094 069 039 01
053800 1743N 08458W 6958 03021 //// +060 //// 087093 095 080 031 01
053830 1742N 08457W 6991 02971 //// +060 //// 089095 098 083 018 05
053900 1741N 08457W 6960 02981 //// +057 //// 094098 101 088 016 05
053930 1739N 08457W 6964 02950 //// +078 //// 099092 095 092 016 01
054000 1738N 08457W 6983 02891 9741 +122 +118 096064 075 090 008 00
054030 1736N 08457W 6964 02897 9695 +146 +124 096036 043 082 001 03
054100 1734N 08457W 6973 02874 9667 +161 +124 095026 028 046 004 03
054130 1733N 08457W 6965 02875 9656 +166 +116 070017 022 028 003 03
054200 1731N 08457W 6981 02854 9646 +174 +114 047007 013 022 002 03
054230 1729N 08456W 6954 02888 9640 +178 +116 270013 020 023 002 03
054300 1727N 08455W 6967 02883 9660 +169 +120 252033 043 032 004 03
054330 1726N 08454W 6960 02908 9694 +151 +125 243066 071 041 006 03
054400 1725N 08452W 6956 02944 9722 +155 +127 240088 092 065 004 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z HWRF just came out and it does the loop back into the NW Caribbean just like it did at 18Z:

HURRICANE RINA 18L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 26

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -84.70 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 953.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 17.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -85.70 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -86.10 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -86.40 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -86.70 LAT: 19.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 958.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 20.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 21.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -87.10 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -86.90 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -86.50 LAT: 20.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -86.00 LAT: 19.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -85.60 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 18.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -85.10 LAT: 17.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -85.20 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -85.50 LAT: 17.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -85.50 LAT: 17.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z GFDL continues to show a South Florida hit just like it did at 18Z:

HURRICANE RINA 18L



INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 26



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 17.5 84.5 280./ 2.9

6 17.6 84.9 292./ 3.8

12 18.0 85.3 307./ 5.7

18 18.1 85.9 284./ 5.6

24 18.5 86.4 306./ 5.9

30 18.9 86.9 309./ 6.1

36 19.6 87.2 339./ 7.9

42 20.5 87.3 349./ 8.9

48 21.5 87.1 13./10.0

54 22.4 86.8 20./ 9.8

60 23.5 86.3 23./11.0

66 24.4 85.6 37./11.7

72 25.0 84.5 62./11.7

78 25.5 83.1 70./13.9

84 26.3 81.4 65./17.5

90 27.5 79.1 63./23.0

96 28.8 76.3 66./27.9

102 30.3 73.1 64./32.0

108 32.8 69.2 57./41.4

114 36.1 64.1 57./53.1



STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260554
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 22 20111026
054430 1723N 08451W 6967 02965 9783 +135 +128 234096 100 072 003 00
054500 1722N 08450W 6987 02964 9827 +114 //// 232090 091 078 006 01
054530 1721N 08449W 6968 03008 //// +084 //// 231086 088 080 007 01
054600 1720N 08447W 6956 03045 //// +066 //// 233080 083 071 008 01
054630 1718N 08446W 6972 03046 //// +055 //// 230076 080 066 011 01
054700 1717N 08445W 6965 03071 //// +057 //// 226072 075 058 010 01
054730 1716N 08443W 6971 03078 //// +061 //// 223066 068 055 010 01
054800 1715N 08442W 6968 03091 //// +055 //// 220064 065 054 008 01
054830 1714N 08441W 6962 03110 0019 +072 //// 215061 063 051 008 01
054900 1713N 08440W 6976 03101 0009 +087 //// 215058 058 050 007 31
054930 1711N 08439W 6962 03125 0007 +094 +092 218056 057 049 006 00
055000 1710N 08437W 6969 03122 0010 +097 +094 217052 054 048 003 00
055030 1709N 08436W 6967 03129 0023 +091 //// 216050 051 048 004 01
055100 1708N 08435W 6959 03144 0033 +087 //// 213047 048 047 004 01
055130 1707N 08434W 6969 03136 0033 +088 //// 214043 045 047 006 01
055200 1706N 08432W 6967 03140 0039 +085 //// 214041 042 048 003 01
055230 1704N 08431W 6971 03140 0050 +081 //// 202038 040 046 003 01
055300 1703N 08430W 6970 03142 //// +073 //// 196035 037 045 005 01
055330 1702N 08429W 6967 03149 //// +075 //// 205033 034 045 004 01
055400 1701N 08427W 6971 03147 //// +063 //// 197034 036 044 006 01
$$
;

[WeatherEmperor]

Assuming that the data from the G-IV jet made it into the 00Z models, so far it appears that it made very little difference compared to the previous 18Z models. HWRF continues the loop back into the NW Caribbean while the GFDL shows a South Florida hit. The GFS approaches South Florida but shows Rina being sheared apart before it gets there. Still waiting for the UKMET and Euro to see if/how those changed...

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 260557
XXAA 76067 99175 70849 04574 99969 27415 15007 00779 ///// /////
92413 24815 15008 85154 21013 20504 70840 18858 29506 88999 77999
31313 09608 80542
61616 AF304 0618A RINA OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1750N08494W 0546 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18
005 969696 WL150 15007 084 REL 1749N08494W 054221 SPG 1750N08494W
054609 =
XXBB 76068 99175 70849 04574 00969 27415 11850 21013 22846 21014
33824 21644 44708 20260 55696 18057
21212 00969 15007 11934 15009 22900 14503 33872 15006 44850 20504
55795 18510 66782 20015 77754 18010 88696 28509
31313 09608 80542
61616 AF304 0618A RINA OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1750N08494W 0546 MBL WND 15007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 18
005 969696 WL150 15007 084 REL 1749N08494W 054221 SPG 1750N08494W
054609 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 09

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 05:57Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 18
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 09

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 6Z on the 26th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 17.5N 84.9W
Location: 217 miles (349 km) to the E (90°) from Belize City, Belize.
Marsden Square: 045 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (28.61 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F) 150° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
1000mb -279m (-915 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
925mb 413m (1,355 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 23.3°C (73.9°F) 150° (from the SSE) 8 knots (9 mph)
850mb 1,154m (3,786 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.7°C (67.5°F) 205° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
700mb 2,840m (9,318 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F) 295° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:42Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 17.5N 84.94W
Splash Time: 5:46Z

Release Location: 17.49N 84.94W View map)
Release Time: 5:42:21Z

Splash Location: 17.5N 84.94W (
Splash Time: 5:46:09Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 969mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
969mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.9°C (78.6°F)
850mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.7°C (67.5°F)
846mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.6°C (67.3°F)
824mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 17.2°C (63.0°F)
708mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F)
696mb 18.0°C (64.4°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
969mb (Surface) 150° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
934mb 150° (from the SSE) 9 knots (10 mph)
900mb 145° (from the SE) 3 knots (3 mph)
872mb 150° (from the SSE) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 205° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
795mb 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
782mb 200° (from the SSW) 15 knots (17 mph)
754mb 180° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
696mb 285° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)




[Dave]