ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct at dissipating Rina in a day or so. Rina is shrinking and not looking good, in my opinion.

[sandyb]

Thanks, wxman57, for some common sense meteorology...

...but leave it to JB to predict a disaster scenario for South Florida - where did he go to school (lol)?

Frank

where did you read that JB predicted a disaster scenario for Florida I have a couple of nieces headed down there for a cruise on Monday. I wanna get all the info I can get for them.

JB tweeted that Rina would hit south Florida as a hurricane. Frank exaggerated the disaster part a bit. Where are your nieces heading on their cruise? Weather across the Bahamas, FL Straits and NW Caribbean looks rather unsettled for the next 4-5 days. Not much sunshine.

bahamas they leave out Monday AM this trip has been planned for almost a year and I told them this is not the best time of the year to try to plan that far ahead for this area hope all is clear and they get to go but its looking scary right now
thanks for for clearing up the disaster part but I am sure any storm there can be bad but didnt know if Joe predicted something more than the nhc was saying. I know he gets very excited about his job sometimes and goes over board but he is a wise man sometimes

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne AFD

FRI NIGHT-SUN...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...WHICH AT THIS TIME MATCHES
WELL WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS...BRINGS TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA
NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN CUBA LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF AND
ACROSS FLORIDA. ANY IMPACTS OF RINA TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS
TIME REMAIN QUITE LOW AS CURRENT NHC FORECAST POINTS TO RINA
WEAKENING AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA AS SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER
WILL NEED TO STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

Tampa Bay AFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH RESPECT TO RINA
AND OVERALL AMOUNT OF COOLER DRIER AIR THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD SOME RIDGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE THE
GFS/DGEX/CANADIAN KEEP GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY WHILE RINA...OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF RINA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU LIKE...IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIFTING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE COOL FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF RINA TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BIGGEST
CHANGES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SOUTHERN AREAS NOT COOLING
AND DRYING OUT QUITE AS MUCH. THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS HUGE
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE WHOLE AREA AS
IT DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE
OTHERS ONLY BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

Miami AFD

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON HURRICANE RINA.
THE MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK THROUGH THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS LARGE...WHICH CONTINUES TO CREATE A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS RINA BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE MIDWEST...CONTINUES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS UPPER
PATTERN SHIFTS AND RINA BEGINS TO PULL NORTH...THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...RINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST NORTH OR NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HOW QUICKLY RINA WEAKENS WILL BECOME THE MAIN
QUESTION THROUGH THIS CRITICAL TIME AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
THE FINAL TRACK. WHEREAS IF RINA QUICKLY WEAKENS...THE STEERING
LAYER COULD SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN
OUTLIER IS NOW THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY TRACK
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL TRACK OF RINA...AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS PERIOD...THE MAIN QUESTION WILL
BE HOW FAR THE DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREADS
SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR MORE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Key West AFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
"ABOVE NORMAL" UNCERTAINTY PERSIST FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THIS TYPICAL COMPLEX LATE OCTOBER PATTERN. WITH THAT
SAID...HERE IS THE LATEST EXPECTATION FOR THIS PERIOD. A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...AS ANOTHER STRONGER REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL SYSTEM RINA WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINING DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM
DISSIPATION...TO THE "UNDEPENDABLE" GFDL LIFTING IT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...AND THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION SAGGING IT BACK
INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. OF NOTE...EVEN IF
TROPICAL SYSTEM RINA SNEAKS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WOULD
ERODE THIS FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY. REGARDLESS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ABOVE AVERAGE POPS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE KEPT
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND BRIDGES A DECAYING COLD FRONT OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HENCE...CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT FOR THE END
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
FINALLY ARRIVES. OTHERWISE...DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS BACKING TO NORTH NORTHEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

[GCANE]

I think Rina has peaked.

Up-welling and rain dropping from a nearly stalled system are cooling the ocean under her.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Vortex]

Rina appears to be headed for a decline now, her best days have since past....

[Ntxw]

She was a mirror image of paula except rina had more hostile shear waiting just to her north. Being as small as she was there was no way she would over come a wall that was awaiting her.

[cycloneye]

It was a given yesterday that Rina was going to be the 4th major of the 2011 season,but today it appears it will not reach it.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261325
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 09 20111026
131600 2323N 08520W 5415 05256 0275 -035 -077 030010 011 024 000 00
131630 2320N 08521W 5416 05256 0275 -033 -094 019010 011 024 000 00
131700 2317N 08521W 5415 05256 0275 -035 -081 007007 008 024 000 00
131730 2315N 08522W 5416 05255 0275 -032 -080 329007 008 024 000 00
131800 2312N 08522W 5417 05255 0276 -033 -078 322008 009 024 000 00
131830 2310N 08522W 5418 05252 0274 -036 -078 303010 010 025 000 03
131900 2307N 08522W 5420 05250 0274 -040 -070 311010 010 033 009 00
131930 2305N 08522W 5409 05263 0274 -040 -074 312010 011 036 006 03
132000 2302N 08522W 5410 05261 0272 -041 -065 328011 012 029 007 00
132030 2300N 08522W 5410 05260 0272 -041 -061 326011 013 031 002 00
132100 2258N 08522W 5413 05255 0268 -039 -053 352008 010 025 003 00
132130 2255N 08523W 5407 05261 0267 -040 -050 098009 013 026 005 00
132200 2253N 08523W 5397 05271 0265 -040 -056 166012 013 029 003 00
132230 2251N 08523W 5406 05260 0266 -041 -054 142007 008 027 002 00
132300 2249N 08523W 5397 05276 0268 -039 -060 207005 006 026 002 00
132330 2246N 08523W 5397 05278 0271 -037 -061 211003 005 025 001 00
132400 2244N 08523W 5394 05282 0272 -032 -096 196004 005 024 003 00
132430 2242N 08523W 5395 05279 0270 -032 -102 190006 006 025 001 00
132500 2240N 08523W 5396 05279 0270 -031 -100 188004 005 024 000 00
132530 2237N 08523W 5395 05278 0268 -030 -104 170006 007 022 000 00

[westwind]

It was a given yesterday that Rina was going to be the 4th major of the 2011 season,but today it appears it will not reach it.

Recon is en route now. Lets see what it shows ( if someone could take over that would be great )

I also think Rina has peaked but as a 100kt major hurricane.

[adam0983]

I think that the hostile environment to the north of Rina is starting to affect the storm. This is great news for Florida. Hopefully the storm will continue to fall apart and spare Cozumel and Cancun.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261345
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 11 20111026
133600 2144N 08521W 5395 05283 0272 -026 -082 090009 009 024 000 00
133630 2141N 08521W 5394 05281 0272 -026 -076 094009 010 025 001 00
133700 2139N 08521W 5395 05283 0273 -025 -062 113008 009 025 000 00
133730 2136N 08521W 5396 05282 0274 -026 -068 114005 006 026 000 00
133800 2134N 08521W 5395 05284 0274 -025 -067 093002 002 023 000 00
133830 2131N 08521W 5396 05284 0275 -025 -065 064004 005 024 000 00
133900 2128N 08521W 5396 05284 0274 -026 -060 090006 007 025 000 00
133930 2126N 08521W 5396 05282 0275 -026 -058 088008 008 026 000 00
134000 2123N 08521W 5397 05284 0276 -026 -058 091007 008 024 001 00
134030 2120N 08521W 5397 05282 0275 -028 -056 089008 008 026 000 00
134100 2118N 08521W 5397 05282 0275 -028 -056 084009 009 027 000 00
134130 2115N 08521W 5397 05284 0276 -029 -058 080009 009 026 000 00
134200 2112N 08521W 5398 05284 0278 -027 -052 098008 009 026 000 00
134230 2110N 08520W 5399 05281 0276 -027 -050 083009 010 026 000 00
134300 2107N 08520W 5399 05280 0276 -028 -050 072010 011 026 001 00
134330 2105N 08520W 5399 05281 0277 -027 -050 080009 009 027 000 00
134400 2102N 08520W 5398 05282 0278 -027 -050 098007 009 028 000 00
134430 2100N 08520W 5400 05280 0277 -027 -060 124004 006 028 000 00
134500 2057N 08520W 5402 05276 0276 -031 -064 252003 006 028 000 00
134530 2055N 08520W 5402 05277 0276 -028 -050 120003 005 028 000 03

[MGC]

Good Morning from Key West! Just had my first cup of coffee.....with a TS forecast to be just south of Key West in a few days, we have decided to leave on Friday instead of Sunday. Gotta beat the rush of tourist leaving. Pretty thick deck of middle clouds just to our south with some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances really increase as the week progresses. Well, off to get a late breakfast.....MGC

[wxman57]

Good Morning from Key West! Just had my first cup of coffee.....with a TS forecast to be just south of Key West in a few days, we have decided to leave on Friday instead of Sunday. Gotta beat the rush of tourist leaving. Pretty thick deck of middle clouds just to our south with some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances really increase as the week progresses. Well, off to get a late breakfast.....MGC

I don't think you'll see too much wind there in Key West. Maybe 30-40 mph winds on Friday/Saturday. But lots of clouds and a good chance of rain. No sunsets visible on Mallory Square. I have Rina weakening to an extratropical low near western Cuba on Sunday morning.

[Frank2]

I agree - it seemed to peak about 18Z yesterday - definitely a different looking system this morning...

P.S. Per my JB comment, true that he wasn't refering to disaster but it does seem he's always favoring one - guess he wasn't here in 2005 in the days after Wilma blew through. My neighbors were here and some sat in line for gasoline and ice for up to 7 hours - nothing to wish for, for sure...

Frank

[wsoutherland]

Okay, expert opinions needed. I have a college reunion on Sanibel scheduled for this weekend. I'd be traveling down from Bradenton, leaving my place unguarded (it's Tampa Bay, well north of the cone right now). So, do I stay or do I go? Seems like the place could potentially be evacuated anyway, or at least the weather will stink. Think that front will be slowing down at all?

Thanks in advance for your advice. I just don't want to blow a few hundred bucks on food (and libations) to bring down there if it's not going to happen, you know?

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261405
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 13 20111026
135600 2012N 08458W 5403 05270 0272 -018 -037 142012 014 030 005 00
135630 2010N 08457W 5403 05270 0271 -021 -028 158014 015 032 004 00
135700 2008N 08456W 5404 05267 0270 -021 -037 147014 015 032 005 00
135730 2006N 08455W 5404 05266 0269 -021 -036 131011 011 033 005 00
135800 2003N 08454W 5403 05269 0270 -020 -033 138012 015 032 005 00
135830 2001N 08453W 5402 05268 0269 -022 -033 135021 025 032 003 00
135900 1959N 08452W 5403 05266 0267 -025 -042 136026 026 031 000 00
135930 1957N 08451W 5411 05253 0265 -021 -035 132027 027 029 000 00
140000 1955N 08450W 5482 05147 0256 -015 -027 121027 027 028 002 00
140030 1953N 08449W 5591 04991 0070 -004 -017 112030 032 031 004 00
140100 1951N 08448W 5658 04896 0069 +002 -006 114029 032 030 004 00
140130 1950N 08447W 5807 04685 0088 +006 +004 118023 026 029 004 00
140200 1948N 08446W 5950 04490 0089 +017 +020 115025 026 028 005 00
140230 1946N 08445W 6081 04311 0091 +026 //// 122026 031 029 007 01
140300 1944N 08444W 6192 04165 0094 +033 //// 107024 027 032 008 01
140330 1942N 08443W 6310 04015 0100 +040 //// 094031 034 039 027 01
140400 1940N 08442W 6461 03820 0111 +043 //// 076032 037 049 038 05
140430 1939N 08441W 6547 03705 0095 +058 //// 091034 039 056 041 01
140500 1937N 08441W 6619 03625 0109 +059 //// 112034 035 059 010 05
140530 1935N 08440W 6748 03466 0118 +065 //// 108032 033 041 010 01

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane decends to operational altitud. Let's see if Rina has weakened or not.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261415
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 14 20111026
140600 1933N 08439W 6850 03344 0118 +074 +074 107033 034 033 008 00
140630 1932N 08438W 7023 03136 0116 +088 +082 106031 032 028 008 00
140700 1930N 08437W 7164 02971 0121 +094 +090 100030 031 026 005 00
140730 1928N 08436W 7338 02772 0120 +105 +101 105030 032 025 004 00
140800 1926N 08435W 7462 02629 0106 +117 //// 110025 029 030 009 01
140830 1925N 08434W 7491 02596 0087 +118 //// 116028 030 025 002 01
140900 1923N 08433W 7517 02568 0068 +119 //// 118025 026 023 004 01
140930 1921N 08432W 7513 02571 0047 +124 //// 118028 029 022 001 01
141000 1920N 08432W 7514 02570 0034 +123 //// 119030 030 019 001 05
141030 1918N 08432W 7516 02569 0023 +125 //// 119028 029 018 002 01
141100 1916N 08432W 7515 02569 0022 +124 //// 118029 030 021 001 01
141130 1914N 08431W 7518 02565 0052 +126 //// 113030 031 023 000 05
141200 1912N 08430W 7517 02566 0114 +122 +096 105027 027 024 001 00
141230 1911N 08429W 7518 02565 0111 +127 +077 107025 025 023 000 00
141300 1909N 08428W 7516 02568 0115 +123 +088 111023 024 025 000 00
141330 1908N 08427W 7518 02569 0118 +124 +087 115024 025 023 001 03
141400 1906N 08425W 7515 02571 0118 +123 +088 121026 026 025 000 00
141430 1905N 08424W 7517 02569 0119 +121 +093 123025 025 024 001 00
141500 1904N 08422W 7517 02569 0122 +118 +095 122025 026 024 000 00
141530 1902N 08421W 7517 02570 0122 +119 +097 121025 025 024 000 03

Plane on operational level (around 750 hPa).
First pass will be NE-SW.

[wxman57]

Okay, expert opinions needed. I have a college reunion on Sanibel scheduled for this weekend. I'd be traveling down from Bradenton, leaving my place unguarded (it's Tampa Bay, well north of the cone right now). So, do I stay or do I go? Seems like the place could potentially be evacuated anyway, or at least the weather will stink. Think that front will be slowing down at all?

Thanks in advance for your advice. I just don't want to blow a few hundred bucks on food (and libations) to bring down there if it's not going to happen, you know?

Your home will be perfectly fine. The cold front will be well to your south on Saturday. No chance of Rina impacting the Tampa area. Well, I guess we can never say absolutely NO chance, but less than 1%, anyway. As for Sanibel Island, look for a good bit of clouds, showers, and winds out of the east at 25-35 mph on Fri/Sat. Don't bring any sunscreen with you - you won't need it.