000
URNT15 KWBC 261425
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 15 20111026
141600 1901N 08420W 7517 02568 0121 +119 +087 126026 028 023 001 00
141630 1859N 08420W 7517 02569 0124 +117 +087 126028 028 022 000 00
141700 1857N 08419W 7517 02569 0123 +118 +087 124028 028 022 001 00
141730 1855N 08418W 7518 02565 0118 +123 +079 122027 027 021 000 00
141800 1853N 08418W 7520 02565 0117 +125 +073 122027 027 022 000 00
141830 1852N 08417W 7519 02565 0115 +126 +077 123028 028 024 001 00
141900 1850N 08416W 7519 02565 0116 +123 +081 124028 028 024 000 00
141930 1848N 08416W 7519 02566 0117 +124 +080 124027 028 022 000 00
142000 1847N 08415W 7520 02565 0120 +121 +085 125027 028 023 000 00
142030 1845N 08414W 7519 02565 0120 +120 +086 124029 029 024 000 00
142100 1843N 08414W 7517 02569 0118 +123 +080 122028 028 /// /// 03
142130 1842N 08415W 7522 02563 0118 +124 +075 122029 029 023 001 00
142200 1840N 08417W 7519 02566 0121 +121 +072 127030 031 023 000 00
142230 1839N 08418W 7520 02565 0119 +123 +072 127031 032 025 001 00
142300 1837N 08420W 7519 02567 0117 +126 +074 129030 031 025 000 00
142330 1836N 08421W 7519 02566 0114 +127 +072 130030 031 025 001 00
142400 1835N 08423W 7521 02562 0112 +127 +077 126031 031 025 000 00
142430 1833N 08424W 7520 02562 0110 +128 +079 122032 032 027 000 00
142500 1832N 08426W 7520 02562 0109 +127 +087 121031 031 028 000 00
142530 1830N 08427W 7520 02560 0110 +125 +093 120032 033 028 000 00
ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
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- Contact:
000
URNT15 KWBC 261435
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 16 20111026
142600 1829N 08429W 7520 02559 0108 +125 +091 120034 034 028 000 00
142630 1827N 08431W 7522 02557 0107 +126 +092 121034 034 028 000 00
142700 1826N 08432W 7521 02559 0106 +127 +091 124036 036 027 000 00
142730 1824N 08434W 7522 02555 0103 +129 +087 124038 039 031 000 00
142800 1823N 08435W 7521 02557 0102 +131 +083 123040 041 031 000 00
142830 1821N 08437W 7520 02556 0102 +129 +090 126041 041 029 001 00
142900 1820N 08438W 7521 02554 0101 +130 +085 125041 041 031 001 00
142930 1818N 08440W 7521 02553 0097 +133 +076 125043 044 031 003 00
143000 1817N 08441W 7523 02548 0095 +131 +081 127045 046 034 002 00
143030 1815N 08443W 7523 02547 0096 +125 +090 132047 050 034 003 00
143100 1814N 08445W 7520 02546 0091 +124 +108 136049 052 036 006 00
143130 1813N 08446W 7521 02540 0085 +129 +094 135051 051 034 004 00
143200 1811N 08448W 7524 02536 0088 +121 +112 138051 052 034 004 00
143230 1810N 08449W 7523 02535 0090 +117 +116 140053 054 036 003 00
143300 1809N 08450W 7522 02531 0084 +116 +118 140055 055 037 006 00
143330 1807N 08452W 7520 02529 0075 +120 +120 139057 059 037 005 00
143400 1806N 08454W 7526 02521 0074 +119 +122 140059 060 038 007 00
143430 1805N 08456W 7526 02518 0070 +119 +122 138059 060 039 003 00
143500 1804N 08457W 7522 02518 0065 +119 //// 131059 061 039 004 01
143530 1803N 08459W 7522 02516 0063 +119 //// 131060 063 041 005 01
URNT15 KWBC 261435
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 16 20111026
142600 1829N 08429W 7520 02559 0108 +125 +091 120034 034 028 000 00
142630 1827N 08431W 7522 02557 0107 +126 +092 121034 034 028 000 00
142700 1826N 08432W 7521 02559 0106 +127 +091 124036 036 027 000 00
142730 1824N 08434W 7522 02555 0103 +129 +087 124038 039 031 000 00
142800 1823N 08435W 7521 02557 0102 +131 +083 123040 041 031 000 00
142830 1821N 08437W 7520 02556 0102 +129 +090 126041 041 029 001 00
142900 1820N 08438W 7521 02554 0101 +130 +085 125041 041 031 001 00
142930 1818N 08440W 7521 02553 0097 +133 +076 125043 044 031 003 00
143000 1817N 08441W 7523 02548 0095 +131 +081 127045 046 034 002 00
143030 1815N 08443W 7523 02547 0096 +125 +090 132047 050 034 003 00
143100 1814N 08445W 7520 02546 0091 +124 +108 136049 052 036 006 00
143130 1813N 08446W 7521 02540 0085 +129 +094 135051 051 034 004 00
143200 1811N 08448W 7524 02536 0088 +121 +112 138051 052 034 004 00
143230 1810N 08449W 7523 02535 0090 +117 +116 140053 054 036 003 00
143300 1809N 08450W 7522 02531 0084 +116 +118 140055 055 037 006 00
143330 1807N 08452W 7520 02529 0075 +120 +120 139057 059 037 005 00
143400 1806N 08454W 7526 02521 0074 +119 +122 140059 060 038 007 00
143430 1805N 08456W 7526 02518 0070 +119 +122 138059 060 039 003 00
143500 1804N 08457W 7522 02518 0065 +119 //// 131059 061 039 004 01
143530 1803N 08459W 7522 02516 0063 +119 //// 131060 063 041 005 01
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145287
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY...AND A FASTER WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR
OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF RINA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE
CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME
DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT
OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO
REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.
THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
290/4. RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
OLD ONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR
APART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
NEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY...AND A FASTER WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR
OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF RINA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE
CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME
DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT
OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO
REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.
THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
290/4. RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
OLD ONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR
APART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
NEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145287
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Officially,not forecast anymore to become a major cane.
...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
...RINA NOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
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HenkL
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URNT15 KWBC 261445
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 17 20111026
143600 1802N 08501W 7521 02512 0060 +118 //// 130064 065 041 004 01
143630 1800N 08503W 7525 02504 0053 +121 +121 129061 062 042 004 00
143700 1759N 08505W 7525 02499 0045 +122 +126 126061 062 044 009 00
143730 1758N 08506W 7511 02509 0031 +127 //// 125061 062 049 014 01
143800 1757N 08508W 7513 02502 0026 +127 +131 131065 067 047 020 00
143830 1756N 08510W 7520 02482 0010 +131 +136 137068 069 048 021 00
143900 1755N 08512W 7521 02469 9989 +136 //// 141069 070 056 017 01
143930 1753N 08514W 7516 02462 9974 +136 //// 143072 074 060 007 01
144000 1752N 08515W 7536 02420 9952 +140 +139 148078 079 061 004 00
144030 1751N 08517W 7508 02430 9921 +147 +143 161076 082 062 002 00
144100 1750N 08519W 7557 02353 9879 +169 +149 167057 061 062 003 00
144130 1750N 08521W 7517 02385 9867 +159 +160 161046 048 055 005 00
144200 1749N 08523W 7545 02336 9847 +168 +148 161032 042 031 001 00
144230 1749N 08525W 7541 02339 9846 +165 +152 180015 024 026 003 00
144300 1748N 08527W 7525 02360 9837 +178 +141 003016 027 023 000 03
144330 1747N 08528W 7527 02363 9835 +192 +135 353037 041 026 004 00
144400 1745N 08530W 7573 02329 9834 +217 +116 338034 037 032 000 00
144430 1744N 08532W 7523 02397 9837 +228 +102 318040 041 037 000 00
144500 1742N 08533W 7531 02403 9861 +216 +095 319049 053 045 000 00
144530 1741N 08535W 7556 02384 9882 +210 +106 326051 053 049 002 00
Pressure extrapolated: 983
Max wind NE quadrant: flight level - 82 kt, SFMR - 62 kt
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 17 20111026
143600 1802N 08501W 7521 02512 0060 +118 //// 130064 065 041 004 01
143630 1800N 08503W 7525 02504 0053 +121 +121 129061 062 042 004 00
143700 1759N 08505W 7525 02499 0045 +122 +126 126061 062 044 009 00
143730 1758N 08506W 7511 02509 0031 +127 //// 125061 062 049 014 01
143800 1757N 08508W 7513 02502 0026 +127 +131 131065 067 047 020 00
143830 1756N 08510W 7520 02482 0010 +131 +136 137068 069 048 021 00
143900 1755N 08512W 7521 02469 9989 +136 //// 141069 070 056 017 01
143930 1753N 08514W 7516 02462 9974 +136 //// 143072 074 060 007 01
144000 1752N 08515W 7536 02420 9952 +140 +139 148078 079 061 004 00
144030 1751N 08517W 7508 02430 9921 +147 +143 161076 082 062 002 00
144100 1750N 08519W 7557 02353 9879 +169 +149 167057 061 062 003 00
144130 1750N 08521W 7517 02385 9867 +159 +160 161046 048 055 005 00
144200 1749N 08523W 7545 02336 9847 +168 +148 161032 042 031 001 00
144230 1749N 08525W 7541 02339 9846 +165 +152 180015 024 026 003 00
144300 1748N 08527W 7525 02360 9837 +178 +141 003016 027 023 000 03
144330 1747N 08528W 7527 02363 9835 +192 +135 353037 041 026 004 00
144400 1745N 08530W 7573 02329 9834 +217 +116 338034 037 032 000 00
144430 1744N 08532W 7523 02397 9837 +228 +102 318040 041 037 000 00
144500 1742N 08533W 7531 02403 9861 +216 +095 319049 053 045 000 00
144530 1741N 08535W 7556 02384 9882 +210 +106 326051 053 049 002 00
Pressure extrapolated: 983
Max wind NE quadrant: flight level - 82 kt, SFMR - 62 kt
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
The most important excerpt from 10 AM CDT discussion.
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
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HenkL
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NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 18 20111026
144600 1740N 08536W 7541 02418 9920 +182 +124 331047 050 057 004 00
144630 1738N 08538W 7548 02425 9962 +151 +147 336047 049 054 004 03
144700 1737N 08539W 7530 02462 9983 +145 +142 337046 047 052 004 00
144730 1735N 08541W 7529 02472 9997 +146 +136 335040 041 049 002 00
144800 1734N 08543W 7533 02476 0010 +142 +144 341043 045 046 007 00
144830 1732N 08544W 7541 02476 0022 +140 +133 345039 040 042 002 00
144900 1731N 08546W 7537 02486 0029 +138 +141 344037 037 040 003 00
144930 1729N 08547W 7538 02490 0038 +137 +133 344035 036 040 001 00
145000 1728N 08549W 7530 02502 0044 +135 +119 339033 034 038 002 00
145030 1726N 08550W 7534 02502 0052 +132 +119 341030 031 037 002 00
145100 1725N 08552W 7533 02509 0057 +131 +131 333028 030 036 002 00
145130 1723N 08553W 7533 02509 0065 +128 +121 337026 027 034 001 00
145200 1722N 08555W 7532 02515 0068 +127 +125 342024 026 033 003 00
145230 1720N 08556W 7532 02519 0075 +124 //// 344027 029 033 002 01
145300 1718N 08558W 7533 02520 0078 +124 +125 345026 026 030 000 00
145330 1717N 08559W 7533 02523 0081 +125 +126 343025 027 029 002 00
145400 1715N 08601W 7531 02527 0085 +122 +127 336025 026 028 001 00
145430 1714N 08602W 7533 02526 0088 +121 +122 343025 025 027 000 00
145500 1712N 08604W 7531 02529 0093 +119 +113 344026 027 025 001 00
145530 1711N 08605W 7532 02529 0092 +122 +107 348027 028 030 003 00
144600 1740N 08536W 7541 02418 9920 +182 +124 331047 050 057 004 00
144630 1738N 08538W 7548 02425 9962 +151 +147 336047 049 054 004 03
144700 1737N 08539W 7530 02462 9983 +145 +142 337046 047 052 004 00
144730 1735N 08541W 7529 02472 9997 +146 +136 335040 041 049 002 00
144800 1734N 08543W 7533 02476 0010 +142 +144 341043 045 046 007 00
144830 1732N 08544W 7541 02476 0022 +140 +133 345039 040 042 002 00
144900 1731N 08546W 7537 02486 0029 +138 +141 344037 037 040 003 00
144930 1729N 08547W 7538 02490 0038 +137 +133 344035 036 040 001 00
145000 1728N 08549W 7530 02502 0044 +135 +119 339033 034 038 002 00
145030 1726N 08550W 7534 02502 0052 +132 +119 341030 031 037 002 00
145100 1725N 08552W 7533 02509 0057 +131 +131 333028 030 036 002 00
145130 1723N 08553W 7533 02509 0065 +128 +121 337026 027 034 001 00
145200 1722N 08555W 7532 02515 0068 +127 +125 342024 026 033 003 00
145230 1720N 08556W 7532 02519 0075 +124 //// 344027 029 033 002 01
145300 1718N 08558W 7533 02520 0078 +124 +125 345026 026 030 000 00
145330 1717N 08559W 7533 02523 0081 +125 +126 343025 027 029 002 00
145400 1715N 08601W 7531 02527 0085 +122 +127 336025 026 028 001 00
145430 1714N 08602W 7533 02526 0088 +121 +122 343025 025 027 000 00
145500 1712N 08604W 7531 02529 0093 +119 +113 344026 027 025 001 00
145530 1711N 08605W 7532 02529 0092 +122 +107 348027 028 030 003 00
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HenkL
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URNT15 KWBC 261505
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 19 20111026
145600 1709N 08607W 7536 02525 0092 +122 +119 353029 029 034 008 00
145630 1708N 08609W 7549 02513 0090 +124 +123 352027 029 036 013 00
145700 1706N 08610W 7525 02538 0091 +122 //// 337025 031 039 008 01
145730 1705N 08612W 7523 02545 0091 +126 +129 346018 023 039 019 00
145800 1703N 08613W 7525 02545 0089 +130 +134 336024 026 042 012 00
145830 1702N 08615W 7536 02530 0094 +126 +123 358022 023 035 007 00
145900 1700N 08616W 7534 02538 0099 +125 +116 358024 025 034 002 00
145930 1659N 08618W 7520 02554 0102 +122 +111 356022 024 032 002 00
150000 1657N 08619W 7526 02548 0102 +123 +119 347020 020 033 005 00
150030 1656N 08621W 7520 02554 0105 +118 //// 330018 019 032 004 01
150100 1654N 08623W 7508 02565 0105 +117 //// 336017 020 032 009 01
150130 1653N 08624W 7532 02544 0113 +115 //// 339015 015 034 005 05
150200 1651N 08626W 7538 02539 0106 +121 +125 359017 018 039 014 00
150230 1650N 08627W 7541 02531 0103 +124 +129 354016 018 /// /// 03
150300 1648N 08628W 7511 02565 0102 +122 //// 347024 029 /// /// 05
150330 1646N 08627W 7530 02544 0105 +122 //// 336020 023 /// /// 05
150400 1644N 08625W 7539 02536 0108 +121 //// 306020 023 /// /// 05
150430 1644N 08623W 7536 02537 0106 +120 //// 302024 024 039 010 01
150500 1645N 08621W 7513 02565 0106 +120 +124 314023 026 041 008 00
150530 1645N 08619W 7510 02566 0108 +116 +119 326026 027 040 007 00
URNT15 KWBC 261505
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 19 20111026
145600 1709N 08607W 7536 02525 0092 +122 +119 353029 029 034 008 00
145630 1708N 08609W 7549 02513 0090 +124 +123 352027 029 036 013 00
145700 1706N 08610W 7525 02538 0091 +122 //// 337025 031 039 008 01
145730 1705N 08612W 7523 02545 0091 +126 +129 346018 023 039 019 00
145800 1703N 08613W 7525 02545 0089 +130 +134 336024 026 042 012 00
145830 1702N 08615W 7536 02530 0094 +126 +123 358022 023 035 007 00
145900 1700N 08616W 7534 02538 0099 +125 +116 358024 025 034 002 00
145930 1659N 08618W 7520 02554 0102 +122 +111 356022 024 032 002 00
150000 1657N 08619W 7526 02548 0102 +123 +119 347020 020 033 005 00
150030 1656N 08621W 7520 02554 0105 +118 //// 330018 019 032 004 01
150100 1654N 08623W 7508 02565 0105 +117 //// 336017 020 032 009 01
150130 1653N 08624W 7532 02544 0113 +115 //// 339015 015 034 005 05
150200 1651N 08626W 7538 02539 0106 +121 +125 359017 018 039 014 00
150230 1650N 08627W 7541 02531 0103 +124 +129 354016 018 /// /// 03
150300 1648N 08628W 7511 02565 0102 +122 //// 347024 029 /// /// 05
150330 1646N 08627W 7530 02544 0105 +122 //// 336020 023 /// /// 05
150400 1644N 08625W 7539 02536 0108 +121 //// 306020 023 /// /// 05
150430 1644N 08623W 7536 02537 0106 +120 //// 302024 024 039 010 01
150500 1645N 08621W 7513 02565 0106 +120 +124 314023 026 041 008 00
150530 1645N 08619W 7510 02566 0108 +116 +119 326026 027 040 007 00
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HenkL
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URNT15 KNHC 261508
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 04 20111026
145830 2946N 08930W 4392 06851 0332 -138 -354 260010 010 /// /// 03
145900 2945N 08931W 4328 06964 0340 -145 -362 255008 009 /// /// 03
145930 2943N 08933W 4286 07036 0345 -147 -365 276006 006 /// /// 03
150000 2942N 08934W 4242 07116 0348 -152 -383 294007 008 /// /// 03
150030 2940N 08935W 4193 07202 0352 -159 -393 305007 008 /// /// 03
150100 2938N 08935W 4139 07299 0358 -168 -394 302008 008 007 000 03
150130 2935N 08934W 4083 07405 0367 -177 -401 300007 008 017 000 00
150200 2933N 08934W 4029 07506 0373 -187 -408 302008 008 038 000 03
150230 2931N 08933W 3978 07602 0378 -194 -414 309008 008 031 000 03
150300 2929N 08933W 3931 07691 0382 -203 -420 321008 009 /// /// 03
150330 2927N 08932W 3878 07790 0387 -210 -425 333009 009 /// /// 03
150400 2925N 08931W 3841 07863 0392 -217 -432 336009 009 /// /// 03
150430 2923N 08931W 3788 07965 0397 -225 -437 342009 010 /// /// 03
150500 2921N 08930W 3779 07981 0399 -230 -443 342009 009 /// /// 03
150530 2919N 08930W 3767 08004 0399 -230 -448 343009 009 /// /// 03
150600 2916N 08929W 3759 08020 0400 -230 -457 338008 008 /// /// 03
150630 2914N 08928W 3757 08025 0401 -230 -463 334008 008 /// /// 03
150700 2912N 08928W 3755 08027 0401 -230 -469 331007 007 /// /// 03
150730 2909N 08927W 3759 08021 0402 -227 -475 314006 007 010 000 03
150800 2907N 08926W 3759 08020 0402 -224 -482 295004 004 002 000 00
Another plane en route. I'll neglect that for the moment until they crossed the GOM.
URNT15 KNHC 261508
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 04 20111026
145830 2946N 08930W 4392 06851 0332 -138 -354 260010 010 /// /// 03
145900 2945N 08931W 4328 06964 0340 -145 -362 255008 009 /// /// 03
145930 2943N 08933W 4286 07036 0345 -147 -365 276006 006 /// /// 03
150000 2942N 08934W 4242 07116 0348 -152 -383 294007 008 /// /// 03
150030 2940N 08935W 4193 07202 0352 -159 -393 305007 008 /// /// 03
150100 2938N 08935W 4139 07299 0358 -168 -394 302008 008 007 000 03
150130 2935N 08934W 4083 07405 0367 -177 -401 300007 008 017 000 00
150200 2933N 08934W 4029 07506 0373 -187 -408 302008 008 038 000 03
150230 2931N 08933W 3978 07602 0378 -194 -414 309008 008 031 000 03
150300 2929N 08933W 3931 07691 0382 -203 -420 321008 009 /// /// 03
150330 2927N 08932W 3878 07790 0387 -210 -425 333009 009 /// /// 03
150400 2925N 08931W 3841 07863 0392 -217 -432 336009 009 /// /// 03
150430 2923N 08931W 3788 07965 0397 -225 -437 342009 010 /// /// 03
150500 2921N 08930W 3779 07981 0399 -230 -443 342009 009 /// /// 03
150530 2919N 08930W 3767 08004 0399 -230 -448 343009 009 /// /// 03
150600 2916N 08929W 3759 08020 0400 -230 -457 338008 008 /// /// 03
150630 2914N 08928W 3757 08025 0401 -230 -463 334008 008 /// /// 03
150700 2912N 08928W 3755 08027 0401 -230 -469 331007 007 /// /// 03
150730 2909N 08927W 3759 08021 0402 -227 -475 314006 007 010 000 03
150800 2907N 08926W 3759 08020 0402 -224 -482 295004 004 002 000 00
Another plane en route. I'll neglect that for the moment until they crossed the GOM.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: RINA - Recon Discussion
Today's TCPOD for missions on Thursday and Friday.
Code: Select all
NOUS42 KNHC 261500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 26 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-148
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RINA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1318A RINA B. NOAA9 1418A RINA
C. 27/1500Z C. 27/1730Z
D. 20.1N 87.0W D. NA
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 1518A RINA
C. 27/2100Z
D. 20.8N 87.1W
E. 27/2330Z TO 28/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A POSSIBLE BUOY DROP MISSION AT 28/1130Z.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S G-IV FLIGHT AT 26/1730Z IS NOW
AN OPERATIONAL MISSION.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Recon seems to confirm a MUCH weaker storm, pressure's up something like 20mb. Another storm ripped up by hostile conditions.
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HenkL
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URNT15 KWBC 261515
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 20 20111026
150600 1645N 08617W 7511 02564 0106 +117 +122 336024 026 039 005 00
150630 1645N 08614W 7513 02561 0102 +121 +120 336022 023 039 006 00
150700 1646N 08612W 7513 02559 0098 +123 +120 330022 022 042 006 00
150730 1646N 08610W 7511 02560 0096 +123 +125 313017 019 040 010 00
150800 1646N 08608W 7524 02548 0105 +116 //// 307022 024 044 006 05
150830 1646N 08606W 7534 02534 0101 +119 //// 316020 023 038 005 01
150900 1647N 08603W 7512 02560 0101 +117 +122 308018 018 039 007 00
150930 1647N 08601W 7542 02525 0100 +121 //// 314018 020 041 006 01
151000 1647N 08559W 7539 02532 0099 +123 +127 302020 023 040 013 00
151030 1647N 08557W 7524 02545 0097 +123 +120 307021 023 042 005 00
151100 1646N 08555W 7516 02554 0099 +121 +108 310017 019 039 002 00
151130 1646N 08552W 7518 02552 0098 +122 +114 303019 020 038 002 00
151200 1646N 08550W 7520 02550 0102 +119 +113 297021 021 039 006 00
151230 1646N 08548W 7520 02550 0100 +119 +121 309019 020 044 006 00
151300 1646N 08546W 7515 02553 0099 +120 //// 295018 021 055 009 05
151330 1646N 08543W 7531 02542 0101 +121 //// 271024 025 044 010 05
151400 1646N 08541W 7519 02553 0101 +119 //// 270024 026 043 004 01
151430 1646N 08539W 7508 02564 0097 +123 +128 271021 024 042 007 00
151500 1646N 08536W 7515 02559 0093 +128 +125 265025 026 043 006 00
151530 1646N 08534W 7525 02547 0094 +129 +115 264024 025 043 003 00
URNT15 KWBC 261515
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 20 20111026
150600 1645N 08617W 7511 02564 0106 +117 +122 336024 026 039 005 00
150630 1645N 08614W 7513 02561 0102 +121 +120 336022 023 039 006 00
150700 1646N 08612W 7513 02559 0098 +123 +120 330022 022 042 006 00
150730 1646N 08610W 7511 02560 0096 +123 +125 313017 019 040 010 00
150800 1646N 08608W 7524 02548 0105 +116 //// 307022 024 044 006 05
150830 1646N 08606W 7534 02534 0101 +119 //// 316020 023 038 005 01
150900 1647N 08603W 7512 02560 0101 +117 +122 308018 018 039 007 00
150930 1647N 08601W 7542 02525 0100 +121 //// 314018 020 041 006 01
151000 1647N 08559W 7539 02532 0099 +123 +127 302020 023 040 013 00
151030 1647N 08557W 7524 02545 0097 +123 +120 307021 023 042 005 00
151100 1646N 08555W 7516 02554 0099 +121 +108 310017 019 039 002 00
151130 1646N 08552W 7518 02552 0098 +122 +114 303019 020 038 002 00
151200 1646N 08550W 7520 02550 0102 +119 +113 297021 021 039 006 00
151230 1646N 08548W 7520 02550 0100 +119 +121 309019 020 044 006 00
151300 1646N 08546W 7515 02553 0099 +120 //// 295018 021 055 009 05
151330 1646N 08543W 7531 02542 0101 +121 //// 271024 025 044 010 05
151400 1646N 08541W 7519 02553 0101 +119 //// 270024 026 043 004 01
151430 1646N 08539W 7508 02564 0097 +123 +128 271021 024 042 007 00
151500 1646N 08536W 7515 02559 0093 +128 +125 265025 026 043 006 00
151530 1646N 08534W 7525 02547 0094 +129 +115 264024 025 043 003 00
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adam0983
Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
As quickly as Hurricane Rina formed will be as quickly as Hurricane Rina will fall apart. This is amazing. What a crazy hurricane season this year. This is great news for everyone is Florida. Hopefully Rina will fall apart before she reaches Mexico.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
[quote="Cranica"]Recon seems to confirm a MUCH weaker storm, pressure's up something like 20mb. Another storm ripped up by hostile conditions.[/quote
Yes, so much dry air everywhere this season - kept the real monsters from forming.
Yes, so much dry air everywhere this season - kept the real monsters from forming.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
I've never seen a hurricane thrive in such a large dry October airmass before. Chilly here last night. Storm-killing air.
Outflow cirrus seems to have receded under clear bright blue skies. 76*
Outflow cirrus seems to have receded under clear bright blue skies. 76*
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HenkL
- S2K Supporter
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000
URNT15 KWBC 261525
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 21 20111026
151600 1646N 08532W 7542 02529 0102 +123 +122 267024 025 045 003 00
151630 1646N 08529W 7534 02537 0099 +125 +120 270024 024 042 003 00
151700 1646N 08527W 7523 02551 0090 +133 +122 262020 022 042 004 00
151730 1646N 08525W 7529 02543 0090 +136 +111 271019 020 043 003 00
151800 1646N 08523W 7542 02530 0094 +133 +121 271023 024 041 005 00
151830 1646N 08520W 7545 02526 0098 +128 +129 260023 023 043 001 00
151900 1646N 08518W 7527 02547 0096 +128 +129 243024 026 041 002 00
151930 1646N 08516W 7532 02543 0094 +132 +119 230025 025 042 001 00
152000 1646N 08513W 7532 02544 0099 +128 +124 233021 023 039 001 00
152030 1646N 08511W 7531 02543 0100 +127 +117 231019 020 043 001 00
152100 1646N 08509W 7532 02544 0105 +124 +116 236020 021 043 002 00
152130 1646N 08507W 7533 02543 0110 +120 +118 244021 022 042 002 00
152200 1646N 08505W 7528 02549 0113 +116 //// 239025 026 043 003 01
152230 1646N 08502W 7530 02548 0111 +119 //// 224022 023 042 004 01
152300 1646N 08500W 7532 02547 0110 +121 +123 211025 027 041 002 00
152330 1646N 08458W 7535 02544 0106 +126 +119 211031 032 040 001 00
152400 1646N 08456W 7534 02542 0104 +127 +117 210032 032 039 000 00
152430 1646N 08453W 7534 02542 0106 +124 +118 209030 031 039 001 00
152500 1646N 08451W 7533 02544 0107 +124 +119 209030 030 038 001 00
152530 1646N 08449W 7534 02544 0107 +124 +118 211030 031 036 001 00
URNT15 KWBC 261525
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 21 20111026
151600 1646N 08532W 7542 02529 0102 +123 +122 267024 025 045 003 00
151630 1646N 08529W 7534 02537 0099 +125 +120 270024 024 042 003 00
151700 1646N 08527W 7523 02551 0090 +133 +122 262020 022 042 004 00
151730 1646N 08525W 7529 02543 0090 +136 +111 271019 020 043 003 00
151800 1646N 08523W 7542 02530 0094 +133 +121 271023 024 041 005 00
151830 1646N 08520W 7545 02526 0098 +128 +129 260023 023 043 001 00
151900 1646N 08518W 7527 02547 0096 +128 +129 243024 026 041 002 00
151930 1646N 08516W 7532 02543 0094 +132 +119 230025 025 042 001 00
152000 1646N 08513W 7532 02544 0099 +128 +124 233021 023 039 001 00
152030 1646N 08511W 7531 02543 0100 +127 +117 231019 020 043 001 00
152100 1646N 08509W 7532 02544 0105 +124 +116 236020 021 043 002 00
152130 1646N 08507W 7533 02543 0110 +120 +118 244021 022 042 002 00
152200 1646N 08505W 7528 02549 0113 +116 //// 239025 026 043 003 01
152230 1646N 08502W 7530 02548 0111 +119 //// 224022 023 042 004 01
152300 1646N 08500W 7532 02547 0110 +121 +123 211025 027 041 002 00
152330 1646N 08458W 7535 02544 0106 +126 +119 211031 032 040 001 00
152400 1646N 08456W 7534 02542 0104 +127 +117 210032 032 039 000 00
152430 1646N 08453W 7534 02542 0106 +124 +118 209030 031 039 001 00
152500 1646N 08451W 7533 02544 0107 +124 +119 209030 030 038 001 00
152530 1646N 08449W 7534 02544 0107 +124 +118 211030 031 036 001 00
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
As I've said, I think Rina will weaken very quickly once it reaches the SE Gulf on Friday.
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HenkL
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000
URNT15 KWBC 261535
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 22 20111026
152600 1646N 08447W 7532 02547 0109 +124 +121 206027 029 037 001 00
152630 1646N 08445W 7533 02547 0110 +123 +125 198026 027 038 001 00
152700 1646N 08442W 7534 02547 0111 +122 +123 196027 028 037 001 00
152730 1646N 08440W 7534 02546 0106 +128 +117 197029 029 038 001 00
152800 1646N 08438W 7535 02544 0108 +126 +117 200028 029 038 002 00
152830 1646N 08436W 7534 02547 0109 +125 +115 199028 029 037 001 00
152900 1646N 08434W 7533 02548 0109 +126 +113 195027 028 036 001 00
152930 1646N 08432W 7533 02546 0108 +126 +109 187028 029 035 001 00
153000 1646N 08430W 7535 02545 0104 +132 +098 185031 032 037 001 00
153030 1646N 08427W 7535 02546 0102 +137 +081 189031 031 035 000 00
153100 1646N 08425W 7534 02547 0107 +132 +090 188030 030 /// /// 03
153130 1648N 08424W 7536 02545 0108 +131 +093 185030 030 /// /// 03
153200 1650N 08424W 7535 02546 0107 +131 +093 181031 031 /// /// 03
153230 1651N 08425W 7535 02547 0106 +134 +090 179031 032 034 001 00
153300 1653N 08427W 7534 02550 0101 +142 +072 179032 033 035 000 00
153330 1654N 08429W 7535 02548 0103 +137 +085 177033 033 036 001 00
153400 1656N 08430W 7534 02548 0106 +134 +093 173032 033 036 000 00
153430 1658N 08432W 7534 02547 0103 +135 +097 179031 031 036 000 00
153500 1659N 08434W 7528 02551 0103 +132 +099 184032 033 036 001 00
153530 1701N 08435W 7524 02555 0103 +129 +101 184034 034 036 000 00
Start of SE-NW pass.
URNT15 KWBC 261535
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 22 20111026
152600 1646N 08447W 7532 02547 0109 +124 +121 206027 029 037 001 00
152630 1646N 08445W 7533 02547 0110 +123 +125 198026 027 038 001 00
152700 1646N 08442W 7534 02547 0111 +122 +123 196027 028 037 001 00
152730 1646N 08440W 7534 02546 0106 +128 +117 197029 029 038 001 00
152800 1646N 08438W 7535 02544 0108 +126 +117 200028 029 038 002 00
152830 1646N 08436W 7534 02547 0109 +125 +115 199028 029 037 001 00
152900 1646N 08434W 7533 02548 0109 +126 +113 195027 028 036 001 00
152930 1646N 08432W 7533 02546 0108 +126 +109 187028 029 035 001 00
153000 1646N 08430W 7535 02545 0104 +132 +098 185031 032 037 001 00
153030 1646N 08427W 7535 02546 0102 +137 +081 189031 031 035 000 00
153100 1646N 08425W 7534 02547 0107 +132 +090 188030 030 /// /// 03
153130 1648N 08424W 7536 02545 0108 +131 +093 185030 030 /// /// 03
153200 1650N 08424W 7535 02546 0107 +131 +093 181031 031 /// /// 03
153230 1651N 08425W 7535 02547 0106 +134 +090 179031 032 034 001 00
153300 1653N 08427W 7534 02550 0101 +142 +072 179032 033 035 000 00
153330 1654N 08429W 7535 02548 0103 +137 +085 177033 033 036 001 00
153400 1656N 08430W 7534 02548 0106 +134 +093 173032 033 036 000 00
153430 1658N 08432W 7534 02547 0103 +135 +097 179031 031 036 000 00
153500 1659N 08434W 7528 02551 0103 +132 +099 184032 033 036 001 00
153530 1701N 08435W 7524 02555 0103 +129 +101 184034 034 036 000 00
Start of SE-NW pass.
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adam0983
Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Rina is dead Jim. Bones she is life support and fading fast.
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HURRICANELONNY
- Category 5
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- Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL
Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Don't think will get much rain this winter in Florida. The lake could use some more. Hopefully we get some rain from Rina this weekend. Other then that. Don't think much of her. Definitely not 2005. 
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hurricanelonny
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