ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

It's been awhile but they've been issued before - it helps officals who are rushing preparations to completion...

It has been a funky season - the last "real" hurricane season in my mind was the 1979 and 1980 seasons - back then (before global climate changed made a mess of things) the summer easterlies were strong and CV waves usually were classic and either formed or didn't but were identifiable...

Over the past 10-20 years the subtropical weather patterns seem very erratic and the old dependable summer weather patterns absent or confused in a sense...

Rina was classic looking yesterday when it was still just far enough east that the Gulf dry air and shear weren't affecting it as they are today, along with upwelling due to it's very slow motion, but the SW Caribbean really is favorable for formation year-round - as long as the systems stay south of 20N, where summer is year-round...

Frank

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261718
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 17 20111026
170830 1949N 08449W 5624 04924 //// -028 //// 139022 024 038 006 01
170900 1948N 08447W 5709 04804 //// -025 //// 143016 020 038 008 01
170930 1946N 08445W 5822 04648 //// -017 //// 131012 014 038 005 01
171000 1945N 08444W 5992 04420 //// -011 //// 128007 010 037 005 01
171030 1944N 08442W 6150 04206 //// +004 //// 155013 016 035 005 01
171100 1943N 08440W 6315 03991 0110 +027 //// 155016 018 032 002 01
171130 1942N 08439W 6470 03794 0106 +043 //// 152023 024 035 003 01
171200 1940N 08437W 6626 03598 0108 +052 //// 137023 025 034 002 01
171230 1939N 08435W 6796 03398 0108 +065 //// 133021 022 032 002 01
171300 1938N 08434W 6946 03209 0108 +073 //// 136020 020 026 000 01
171330 1937N 08432W 6962 03188 0103 +075 //// 140020 020 027 000 01
171400 1936N 08431W 6984 03162 0095 +083 //// 137020 020 027 000 01
171430 1935N 08430W 6961 03187 0097 +079 //// 133020 020 026 000 01
171500 1934N 08428W 6967 03179 0103 +075 //// 135020 020 026 000 01
171530 1933N 08427W 6967 03179 0103 +075 //// 137022 022 027 000 01
171600 1932N 08426W 6966 03182 0101 +076 //// 137021 022 028 000 05
171630 1931N 08425W 6961 03182 0095 +079 //// 128022 023 /// /// 05
171700 1930N 08426W 6975 03168 0088 +084 //// 123021 022 029 000 01
171730 1928N 08427W 6966 03178 0089 +082 //// 117021 021 029 000 01
171800 1927N 08429W 6970 03173 0091 +081 //// 121021 022 029 000 01

Plane descended to operational level (700 hPa).
Starting NE-SW pass.

[Shuriken]

The is currently no dry air entrainment, as Rina remains embedded in easterly flow at the surface and there is no shear aloft.

My guess would be that proximity to Honduras causing drag on the southeast moist inflow feed, and eastward outflow aloft getting cramped by Invest97, is what is disrupting the hurricane.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261728
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 18 20111026
171830 1926N 08430W 6962 03182 0091 +080 +080 117022 022 029 000 03
171900 1924N 08431W 6974 03167 0094 +078 +077 119022 023 031 000 00
171930 1923N 08432W 6962 03179 0093 +078 +075 119023 023 031 001 00
172000 1921N 08433W 6968 03173 0093 +079 +072 118023 023 032 000 00
172030 1920N 08434W 6967 03176 0093 +078 +070 119023 023 032 000 00
172100 1918N 08436W 6970 03171 0096 +077 +067 118022 023 033 000 00
172130 1917N 08437W 6967 03176 0098 +076 +065 119024 027 035 000 00
172200 1915N 08438W 6976 03161 0101 +072 +062 121026 027 035 001 00
172230 1914N 08439W 6965 03177 0092 +080 +060 122025 026 036 002 00
172300 1913N 08440W 6967 03172 0091 +080 +058 121026 026 034 002 00
172330 1911N 08441W 6967 03172 0094 +077 +055 118026 027 026 002 03
172400 1910N 08442W 6966 03173 0094 +076 +053 119027 027 023 001 00
172430 1908N 08443W 6968 03170 0099 +073 +051 121027 028 023 000 00
172500 1907N 08444W 6969 03170 0102 +070 +050 121027 028 023 000 00
172530 1905N 08445W 6967 03171 0103 +069 +047 123028 028 023 000 00
172600 1904N 08446W 6967 03171 0100 +071 +045 124029 029 023 000 00
172630 1902N 08447W 6966 03171 0104 +067 +043 121028 028 023 000 00
172700 1901N 08448W 6966 03171 0107 +066 +041 119027 027 024 000 00
172730 1859N 08449W 6967 03171 0107 +066 +039 120028 028 025 001 00
172800 1858N 08450W 6966 03170 0103 +069 +038 120029 029 025 000 00

[Ntxw]

The is currently no dry air entrainment, as Rina remains embedded in easterly flow at the surface and there is no shear aloft.

My guess would be that proximity to Honduras causing drag on the southeast moist inflow feed, and eastward outflow aloft getting cramped by Invest97, is what is disrupting the hurricane.

This is not correct. Shear is very strong 20 knots and even 30+ just to her north. Dry air is to her west, sw, and north which is the direction she is moving into so it is probable that it is effecting her.



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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA IS A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 85.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1230 PM CDT...1730 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...RINA IS EXPECTED TO
BE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IS
982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RINA REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 982 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT...AT THE MOST...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KT. THUS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST AND NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1730Z 18.1N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RINA REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 982 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS THAT...AT THE MOST...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KT. THUS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST AND NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1730Z 18.1N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[GCANE]

Rina now a Cat 1.

So, why the big disconnect in the model forecast intensity?

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261738
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 19 20111026
172830 1856N 08451W 6967 03167 0102 +069 +036 118029 029 026 000 00
172900 1855N 08452W 6967 03168 0101 +070 +036 118031 031 027 000 00
172930 1853N 08453W 6966 03170 0101 +070 +035 121032 032 028 000 00
173000 1852N 08454W 6968 03163 0097 +070 +034 125032 033 028 000 00
173030 1850N 08455W 6967 03167 0097 +071 +033 124032 033 030 000 00
173100 1849N 08456W 6967 03163 0090 +075 +032 122033 033 032 001 03
173130 1847N 08457W 6967 03163 0090 +074 +031 119036 039 035 003 00
173200 1846N 08458W 6969 03163 0107 +060 +030 112039 042 035 007 00
173230 1844N 08459W 6966 03162 0111 +057 +030 114039 042 037 007 00
173300 1843N 08500W 6964 03167 0113 +054 +035 111041 042 037 006 00
173330 1841N 08501W 6970 03156 0120 +047 +042 109040 042 037 007 00
173400 1840N 08502W 6962 03163 0118 +044 //// 106043 044 035 007 01
173430 1838N 08503W 6973 03148 0099 +059 +049 102044 045 038 005 00
173500 1836N 08504W 6966 03156 0096 +060 +052 103044 046 038 001 00
173530 1835N 08505W 6965 03155 0089 +063 +055 108047 048 037 003 00
173600 1833N 08506W 6969 03148 0092 +059 //// 108049 049 040 001 01
173630 1832N 08507W 6965 03149 0096 +053 //// 109049 050 039 002 01
173700 1830N 08508W 6969 03143 0104 +046 //// 110052 054 039 003 01
173730 1829N 08509W 6967 03145 0105 +043 //// 116052 053 041 003 01
173800 1827N 08510W 6963 03144 //// +041 //// 118053 055 043 006 01

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF now showing SFL landfall again, joining this run's GFS. GFDL now running.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261748
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 20 20111026
173830 1826N 08511W 6962 03140 //// +040 //// 117054 056 045 011 01
173900 1824N 08512W 6970 03127 //// +040 //// 117057 059 047 025 01
173930 1823N 08513W 6956 03148 //// +055 //// 124052 055 056 028 01
174000 1821N 08514W 6986 03106 //// +044 //// 123058 061 053 018 01
174030 1820N 08515W 6963 03132 //// +052 //// 130055 056 047 011 01
174100 1819N 08516W 6976 03115 //// +051 //// 131059 061 044 020 01
174130 1817N 08517W 6961 03128 //// +051 //// 135057 059 041 025 01
174200 1816N 08518W 6962 03129 //// +053 //// 139054 056 052 020 05
174230 1814N 08519W 6974 03113 //// +066 //// 149054 055 047 008 01
174300 1813N 08520W 6961 03127 //// +071 //// 145055 056 046 006 01
174330 1812N 08521W 6966 03122 //// +080 //// 144054 057 047 004 05
174400 1811N 08522W 6962 03123 0003 +094 //// 142058 059 047 003 05
174430 1810N 08523W 6968 03113 0001 +095 //// 141059 060 047 002 01
174500 1809N 08525W 6965 03111 9991 +097 //// 140061 062 047 000 01
174530 1808N 08527W 6970 03099 9975 +105 +101 139061 062 049 001 00
174600 1807N 08528W 6970 03089 9973 +098 +097 143064 066 052 002 00
174630 1806N 08530W 6958 03096 9966 +095 +095 147067 068 055 002 03
174700 1805N 08531W 6967 03071 9944 +102 +093 148065 065 057 003 00
174730 1804N 08533W 6969 03056 9929 +104 +091 151065 069 059 002 00
174800 1803N 08534W 6965 03050 9911 +108 +090 149071 073 061 003 00

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

[x-y-no]

12z GFDL takes a very weak low through the Keys.

[eastcoastFL]

So do you guys still think we will have a significant rain event over the weekend here in the palm beaches?

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261758
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 21 20111026
174830 1803N 08536W 6975 03025 9892 +113 +089 145060 066 063 004 00
174900 1802N 08537W 6960 03028 9857 +131 +089 152038 045 064 001 00
174930 1801N 08539W 6958 03022 9819 +155 +091 143028 030 059 001 03
175000 1800N 08541W 6958 03019 9806 +161 +096 140009 018 046 003 03
175030 1758N 08542W 6969 03005 9781 +183 +102 274010 013 030 001 00
175100 1757N 08543W 6958 03031 9775 +197 +108 284023 032 027 001 03
175130 1755N 08544W 6965 03027 9773 +208 +116 294036 040 026 002 03
175200 1755N 08545W 6981 03017 9768 +215 +124 311045 049 030 001 03
175230 1754N 08547W 6961 03056 9795 +200 +132 319032 037 042 000 03
175300 1752N 08548W 6982 03032 9802 +201 +138 314033 035 051 000 03
175330 1751N 08549W 6969 03055 9819 +191 +142 317031 031 064 000 03
175400 1750N 08551W 6960 03070 9818 +195 +143 312032 033 068 000 03
175430 1749N 08552W 6967 03067 9838 +181 +144 301035 036 066 002 03
175500 1747N 08553W 6967 03072 9867 +162 +143 312042 045 062 001 00
175530 1746N 08554W 6970 03078 9922 +126 //// 312045 046 055 001 01
175600 1745N 08556W 6963 03095 //// +111 //// 318042 045 056 001 01
175630 1744N 08557W 6966 03101 9970 +103 //// 323040 041 052 003 01
175700 1742N 08558W 6972 03098 9980 +095 //// 325036 039 051 003 01
175730 1741N 08600W 6972 03107 9993 +100 +099 323038 040 049 003 00
175800 1740N 08601W 6963 03121 0015 +087 //// 331043 046 047 005 01

Extrapolated pressure: 977
Max winds: flight level 73 kt, SFMR 68 kt

[vbhoutex]

Rina now a Cat 1.

So, why the big disconnect in the model forecast intensity?

I haven't looked at anything, but my guess is dry air entrainment. Rina has been surrounded by dry air for days.

[wxman57]

So do you guys still think we will have a significant rain event over the weekend here in the palm beaches?

Only rain associated with the cold front passage. I still think Rina will not be a TC by Sunday. It won't be able to survive the wind shear and cool, dry air. Maybe a low on the cold front by late Sunday.

[x-y-no]

HWRF now showing SFL landfall again, joining this run's GFS. GFDL now running.

??

I'm seeing a track back south across Cuba ...

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF now showing SFL landfall again, joining this run's GFS. GFDL now running.

??

I'm seeing a track back south across Cuba ...

My bad, I was looking at a different HWRF run.