ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro still says that if you want real excitement from Rina in Florida, you can forget about it. (Sorry, I'm only a messenger.)

[Evil Jeremy]

Another victory for the Euro.

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261807
XXAA 76187 99180 70857 04585 99985 27608 11031 00635 ///// /////
92557 24004 11526 85297 20605 14023 70971 16256 14012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81750
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1801N08571W 1754 MBL WND 11530 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
023 984697 WL150 11532 084 REL 1799N08568W 175006 SPG 1801N08571W
175417 =
XXBB 76188 99180 70857 04585 00985 27608 11850 20605 22794 18218
33780 20257 44712 18457 55697 15456
21212 00985 11031 11978 12034 22918 12025 33881 12023 44850 14023
55810 14030 66801 13023 77762 16517 88714 14524 99697 14008
31313 09608 81750
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 1801N08571W 1754 MBL WND 11530 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
023 984697 WL150 11532 084 REL 1799N08568W 175006 SPG 1801N08571W
175417 =
;

Pressure: 985 in eye (although 31 kt wind)

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261808
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 22 20111026
175830 1738N 08603W 6966 03124 0022 +087 +078 338043 046 045 004 00
175900 1737N 08604W 6973 03118 0036 +082 +068 334036 036 045 003 00
175930 1736N 08605W 6963 03139 0022 +099 +058 330031 033 045 002 00
180000 1735N 08607W 6967 03136 0042 +086 +053 327033 035 044 003 00
180030 1733N 08608W 6964 03144 0046 +087 +049 328029 030 041 002 00
180100 1732N 08609W 6970 03140 0039 +095 +046 333028 030 040 000 03
180130 1731N 08611W 6967 03146 0042 +095 +045 335028 030 038 001 03
180200 1729N 08612W 6965 03150 0045 +094 +045 333026 028 037 001 00
180230 1728N 08613W 6968 03147 0047 +095 +046 334028 029 036 000 00
180300 1727N 08615W 6970 03147 0053 +093 +047 327028 029 034 001 03
180330 1725N 08616W 6970 03152 0068 +085 +047 331027 028 033 001 00
180400 1724N 08618W 6970 03158 0077 +081 +047 328024 025 035 000 03
180430 1723N 08619W 6971 03157 0079 +083 +045 328022 022 034 000 00
180500 1722N 08620W 6967 03166 0083 +081 +043 330022 023 035 000 00
180530 1720N 08622W 6970 03164 0104 +066 +042 332023 024 035 001 00
180600 1719N 08623W 6969 03168 0085 +084 +040 335024 025 032 001 00
180630 1718N 08624W 6965 03174 0089 +082 +040 336023 024 034 003 00
180700 1716N 08626W 6973 03166 0090 +082 +041 336021 021 035 003 00
180730 1715N 08627W 6972 03168 0089 +084 +042 332022 024 033 002 03
180800 1714N 08628W 6967 03175 0095 +080 +043 329025 025 034 002 00

[LarryWx]

So do you guys still think we will have a significant rain event over the weekend here in the palm beaches?

Only rain associated with the cold front passage. I still think Rina will not be a TC by Sunday. It won't be able to survive the wind shear and cool, dry air. Maybe a low on the cold front by late Sunday.

Mucho kudos are owed to 57 for this month's forecasting performance. First of all, he's done well with Rina (at least to this point). He also kicked butt with that unnamed storm that hit Cape Canaveral similarly to those GFS runs that suggested something on the east coast of FL vs. other models, especially King Euro, that said nothing there.

[HenkL]

UZNT13 KNHC 261806
XXAA 76187 99180 70856 04585 99990 25808 06564 00590 ///// /////
92596 22204 11079 85331 19404 12577 70992 11825 14558 88999 77999
31313 09608 81748
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1809N08569W 1753 MBL WND 08578 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 12068 989697 WL150 07577 084 REL 1804N08560W 174834 SPG 1809N0
8569W 175323 =
XXBB 76188 99180 70856 04585 00990 25808 11850 19404 22715 14216
33697 11427
21212 00990 06564 11989 06564 22986 07075 33983 07079 44975 07578
55967 08583 66957 09073 77951 09587 88912 11074 99850 12577 11697
14558
31313 09608 81748
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 08
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1809N08569W 1753 MBL WND 08578 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 12068 989697 WL150 07577 084 REL 1804N08560W 174834 SPG 1809N0
8569W 175323 =

Wind at sea level: 64 kt

[tobol.7uno]

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 261818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/17:50:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
085 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2969 m
D. 63 kt
E. 063 deg 3 nm
F. 151 deg 72 kt
G. 062 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 22 C / 3045 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 17:48:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SFC WINDS REPORTED ON EYE DROP WERE 31KTS
SFC PRESSURE REPORTED ON EYE DROP WAS 985MB
;

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261818
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 23 20111026
180830 1713N 08630W 6963 03180 0096 +079 +044 338026 028 035 001 00
180900 1711N 08631W 6967 03177 0097 +081 +045 348025 026 033 001 03
180930 1710N 08633W 6964 03181 0093 +085 +046 345021 022 034 000 00
181000 1709N 08634W 6973 03173 0097 +083 +047 335020 022 034 001 03
181030 1707N 08634W 6962 03185 0095 +082 +049 333019 020 /// /// 03
181100 1706N 08633W 6963 03174 0089 +080 +050 328017 018 036 000 03
181130 1706N 08631W 6966 03168 0079 +084 +050 318017 018 036 001 03
181200 1706N 08629W 6968 03163 0074 +085 +049 318019 020 038 000 00
181230 1706N 08627W 6967 03161 0067 +089 +048 307020 021 038 001 00
181300 1706N 08625W 6966 03161 0069 +086 +047 306023 024 037 002 00
181330 1707N 08623W 6969 03155 0070 +085 +047 314025 026 035 002 00
181400 1707N 08621W 6965 03159 0075 +079 +046 316025 026 035 001 00
181430 1707N 08619W 6965 03156 0072 +080 +045 312027 028 034 000 00
181500 1708N 08617W 6973 03147 0069 +083 +044 312022 022 032 002 00
181530 1708N 08615W 6972 03149 0072 +080 +043 313021 022 034 001 00
181600 1708N 08613W 6964 03156 0071 +079 +045 313021 022 034 002 00
181630 1708N 08611W 6971 03149 0071 +080 +047 309021 022 034 002 00
181700 1708N 08609W 6965 03156 0070 +079 +051 302023 024 035 000 00
181730 1707N 08607W 6971 03149 0070 +080 +054 300023 023 035 001 00
181800 1707N 08605W 6968 03153 0067 +082 +056 293021 022 035 002 00

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 261818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/17:50:00Z
B. 18 deg 00 min N
085 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2969 m
D. 63 kt
E. 063 deg 3 nm
F. 151 deg 72 kt
G. 062 deg 6 nm
H. EXTRAP 976 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 22 C / 3045 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 17:48:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SFC WINDS REPORTED ON EYE DROP WERE 31KTS
SFC PRESSURE REPORTED ON EYE DROP WAS 985MB
;

No eye wall. Convection is building but apparently the core has been completely disrupted.

[wxman57]

Wow! Does Rina ever look terrible on satellite now? Doesn't even look like a hurricane. The NE Yucatan would appear to be in good shape, as Rina will likely be only a TS when it passes Cozumel & Cancun. I have it weakening to a remnant low (maybe an ET low on the cold front) by Sunday. Could happen by Saturday PM.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261828
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 24 20111026
181830 1707N 08603W 6962 03161 0065 +083 +057 296019 020 035 001 00
181900 1707N 08601W 6968 03152 0061 +088 +056 295019 020 035 002 00
181930 1707N 08559W 6967 03156 0065 +085 +055 288020 021 033 002 00
182000 1707N 08557W 6968 03152 0069 +082 +054 283021 022 033 002 00
182030 1707N 08555W 6968 03152 0080 +073 +055 283019 020 037 007 00
182100 1707N 08553W 6966 03157 0083 +068 +063 281022 024 040 006 00
182130 1707N 08551W 6962 03161 0076 +073 //// 275021 023 042 004 01
182200 1707N 08549W 6975 03145 0068 +077 //// 274020 022 040 006 01
182230 1707N 08547W 6967 03156 0063 +085 //// 260023 023 039 004 01
182300 1707N 08545W 6962 03162 0064 +082 //// 249023 023 041 002 01
182330 1707N 08543W 6967 03156 0063 +085 +084 249022 023 041 000 03
182400 1707N 08541W 6970 03152 0065 +084 +081 250024 026 040 000 03
182430 1707N 08539W 6966 03159 0065 +085 +078 247026 027 039 001 03
182500 1707N 08537W 6965 03159 0062 +086 +075 243026 026 039 000 03
182530 1707N 08535W 6966 03158 0062 +086 +072 237025 026 040 001 03
182600 1707N 08533W 6967 03156 0068 +082 +069 244023 025 042 000 03
182630 1707N 08531W 6977 03145 0077 +077 +070 218031 033 042 002 03
182700 1707N 08529W 6967 03158 0069 +083 +072 213035 036 042 000 03
182730 1707N 08527W 6967 03161 0063 +089 +074 215037 038 042 001 03
182800 1707N 08525W 6967 03162 0067 +087 +072 214037 037 041 001 00

[latitude_20]

So why is it that NHC's last update has max sustained winds at 85mph, when the highest wind recorded by recon was only 75.9mph?

[tobol.7uno]

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261838
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 25 20111026
182830 1707N 08523W 6966 03162 0064 +089 +071 214036 037 042 000 00
182900 1707N 08521W 6970 03158 0064 +091 +069 212034 034 042 001 03
182930 1707N 08519W 6969 03161 0061 +093 +067 211033 035 041 000 03
183000 1707N 08517W 6967 03162 0061 +094 +065 209035 035 040 000 03
183030 1707N 08515W 6967 03163 0068 +090 +064 208034 034 041 000 03
183100 1707N 08513W 6965 03167 0075 +084 +063 208034 034 040 001 00
183130 1707N 08511W 6969 03163 0077 +084 +062 209035 036 041 000 03
183200 1707N 08509W 6968 03164 0080 +081 +060 204036 036 039 000 03
183230 1707N 08507W 6965 03169 0085 +080 +058 208036 036 039 000 03
183300 1707N 08505W 6966 03169 0086 +078 +057 212037 037 039 000 03
183330 1707N 08503W 6968 03168 0093 +075 +055 212036 037 039 000 03
183400 1707N 08501W 6967 03170 0094 +075 +054 209033 035 039 001 00
183430 1707N 08459W 6967 03167 0089 +078 +053 210030 031 039 002 00
183500 1707N 08457W 6970 03167 0109 +064 +052 207032 035 041 003 00
183530 1707N 08455W 6965 03175 0121 +057 +057 192031 032 041 003 00
183600 1707N 08453W 6963 03177 0103 +068 //// 186033 033 039 001 05
183630 1708N 08451W 6959 03180 0101 +070 //// 179033 034 /// /// 05
183700 1710N 08452W 6967 03170 0101 +064 //// 176031 032 /// /// 05
183730 1711N 08453W 6973 03166 //// +048 //// 193028 029 041 004 01
183800 1712N 08455W 6966 03173 //// +069 //// 207026 027 039 002 01

Starting SE-NW pass.

[adam0983]

Captain Kirk has anyone seen Hurricane Rina. Bones have you seen her. Hurricane Rina is dead Jim she is on life support and fading faster by the minute. Captain Kirk this is great news hopefully Mexico will get spared. Spock please give me the location of this ship.

[wxman57]

I've always said, as damaging as hurricanes can be, they're extremely fragile. If the environment isn't just right, they fall apart very quickly. Rina is demonstrating that.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261848
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 26 20111026
183830 1713N 08456W 6969 03169 //// +080 //// 202027 027 038 002 01
183900 1714N 08457W 6966 03173 //// +084 //// 194026 026 036 000 01
183930 1716N 08459W 6967 03170 //// +081 //// 196026 027 036 001 01
184000 1717N 08500W 6970 03166 //// +081 //// 197028 029 037 000 01
184030 1718N 08501W 6969 03168 //// +083 //// 195029 030 037 000 01
184100 1720N 08503W 6966 03168 //// +082 //// 196032 033 037 000 05
184130 1721N 08504W 6971 03161 //// +086 //// 195033 034 038 001 05
184200 1722N 08506W 6963 03169 //// +087 //// 193034 035 038 001 05
184230 1724N 08507W 6966 03163 //// +089 //// 186036 037 038 001 05
184300 1725N 08509W 6969 03158 //// +085 //// 185035 035 039 000 01
184330 1727N 08510W 6965 03162 //// +085 //// 188037 039 039 001 01
184400 1728N 08511W 6968 03155 //// +090 //// 188038 039 039 001 01
184430 1729N 08513W 6968 03151 //// +090 //// 189038 039 040 001 05
184500 1731N 08514W 6968 03149 //// +090 //// 189039 039 040 000 01
184530 1732N 08516W 6963 03151 //// +091 //// 190041 041 040 001 01
184600 1733N 08517W 6971 03139 //// +090 //// 190042 042 041 000 01
184630 1735N 08519W 6963 03147 //// +088 //// 190042 042 040 001 01
184700 1736N 08520W 6968 03139 //// +079 //// 194042 043 039 003 01
184730 1738N 08521W 6969 03134 //// +087 //// 193045 046 040 001 01
184800 1739N 08523W 6969 03132 //// +090 //// 191047 048 042 003 01

[gatorcane]

Another victory for the Euro.

Indeed, that is why I posted a few times to not discount it. The conditions are horrible. The air is bone dry right down into Southern FL and SE GOM.

[Macrocane]

Another victory for the Euro.

Not really, it never intensified Rina the way she did actually it killed Rina run after run even though she was strengthening.