ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Even the NHC is confused:

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5.

No, that is not a 2005 flashback. That was a part of the 4 pm discussion.

Wasn't that turn expected, so how is the NHC confused?

Look closely.

[boca]

Even the NHC is confused:

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5.

No, that is not a 2005 flashback. That was a part of the 4 pm discussion.

Wasn't that turn expected, so how is the NHC confused?

Look closely.

I also remember reading the discussion on Wilma and they were saying Wilma has begun her NE movement

[CronkPSU]

could riNa's 24 hour demise be partly due to an EWRC and some dry air and might she strengthen further tonight and tomorrow AM?

[NDG]

Even the NHC is confused:

RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5.

No, that is not a 2005 flashback. That was a part of the 4 pm discussion.

Wasn't that turn expected, so how is the NHC confused?

Look closely.

[HurricaneWarning92]

She's looking better than earlier today that's for sure. She still has about 1.5 days to stregthen further so Id still be watching this just in case.

[ozonepete]

LOL. Really. I guess Rina is pretty close to Rita and Katrina. Thankfully no comparison in strength.

[NDG]

could riNa's 24 hour demise be partly due to an EWRC and some dry air and might she strengthen further tonight and tomorrow AM?

I don't think Rina ever got to the point of having two eyewalls.
Dry air had more to do with it, IMO.
Regarding getting any stronger, not even the crazy GFDL strengthens her any further now.

[boca]

could riNa's 24 hour demise be partly due to an EWRC and some dry air and might she strengthen further tonight and tomorrow AM?

I don't think Rina ever got to the point of having two eyewalls.
Dry air had more to do with it, IMO.
Regarding getting any stronger, not even the crazy GFDL strengthens her any further now.

I think Rina's moisture will get us here in Florida after her top gets blown off.

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

[Rainband]

Rita

[tobol.7uno]

[NDG]

Recon found on its last pass higher flight level winds in the low 80 knots.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE DATA WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRING IN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 14 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED
OFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS
DATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH
JUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI
IN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY
THE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN
RINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA
APPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.5N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.2N 86.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.4N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

...RINA HANGING IN THERE WITH 85 MPH WINDS...COULD BE A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Agreed it might be stronger. I would have bumped it to 80 kt.

[cycloneye]

Kudos to Euro by Lixon Avila in discussion.

THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER
IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.
THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR
YUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE
MODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.

[gatorcane]

Yes, Kudos again to the ECMWF prediction, the king of the models in 2011 in my opinion.

It's really tough to go against it and I put emphasis on it for my forecast for this system.

[Macrocane]

I can post the HDOB's but I don't know if NOAA mission is still out there, I see that the Air Force plane is in route now.

[Shuriken]

The is currently no dry air entrainment, as Rina remains embedded in easterly flow at the surface and there is no shear aloft.

My guess would be that proximity to Honduras causing drag on the southeast moist inflow feed, and eastward outflow aloft getting cramped by Invest97, is what is disrupting the hurricane.

This is not correct. Shear is very strong 20 knots and even 30+ just to her north. Dry air is to her west, sw, and north which is the direction she is moving into so it is probable that it is effecting her.

Boldfacing the relevant word. This afternoon, cumulus on the Yucatan were moving westward, indicating a generally easterly flow of Caribbean origin, this precluding dry-air entrainment at that time.

I stand by my assessment that now-ex Invest 97's large anti-cyclone aloft in the central Caribbean interrupted the efficiency of Rina's own smaller outflow. Were it not for the two systems crowding each other, it is not any stretch of the imagination that me might have watched Rina wind up like Mitch did in the same location a week later on the calender. This crowding is still going on, and there is essentially zero exhausting to the southeast by Rina at this time.