Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

That is a very interesting information Gusty.

BZSTORM,Rina is almost gone,so is great news.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER
LAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A
SECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT
AREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA
SOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE
SOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE
OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS
COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE
REMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 21.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.1N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 22.1N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 20.6N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 19.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Macrocane]

The first cold surge of the season ended on Wednesday so today I posted the observations from that event on the Central American Cold Surges Thread

[Macrocane]

The temperatures have continued rising up in Central America, a summary of yesterday temps:
-The lows were near normal in Belize, Costa Rica and Panama. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador still registered cooler than normal lows although not as cool as in previous days. Nicaragua had warmer than normal lows.
-Near normal highs were registered in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, in previous days they were cooler than normal. Warmer than normal highs occurred in Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.6°C (40.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.1°C (50.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.9°C (44.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)


Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 26.1°C (79.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F) Warmest since September 16
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.1°C (84.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.1°C (82.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 14.1°C (57.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.3°C (86.5°F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST FRI OCT 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY ERODING AND
SHIFTING WEST NORTHWEST...AS THE RETROGRESSING TUTT WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...CONTINUED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM
JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
FILL THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS
FOR UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA AND AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL HELP TO CREATE A MODERATE TO
STRONG EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE TROUGH
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
CLOUD FRAGMENTS AND INTERVALS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION....SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO
MAINTAIN AND INDUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MOISTURE
NOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PASSING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION
AND LOCALIZED.

MIMIC/CIMMS TPW AS WELL AS LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND GPS DERIVED
IPW SUGGESTED PWAT VALUES WERE BETWEEN 1.27 AT MACM AND 1.80 INCHES
AT TJSJ. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. LOCALLY ENHANCED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
WITH SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RETROGRESSING TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ...WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS OF THE
ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETWEEN 28/18Z-28/22Z...TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 20K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
837 PM AST FRI OCT 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL ERODE MID NEXT WEEK
AS POLAR PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND H7 THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ADVERTISE A MORE
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS AREA BECOMES UNDER DIVERGENT SIDE
OF A H25 TROUGH. WEAKENING H5 RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS TO DEVELOP WITH INCREASING RISK OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK LOOK MORE
UNSETTLED/WETTER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR A WHILE ESPECIALLY MID
WEEK AS TRADES SLACKEN AND AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIG WX. PROB OF TSRA
AND MVFR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY MON-TUE AS BROAD TROF ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE PEAKING RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW. ANOTHER SWELL EVENT IS
FCST TO AFFECT THE WATERS TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 89 / 40 10 10 10
STT 80 84 80 84 / 30 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

That is a very interesting information Gusty.

BZSTORM,Rina is almost gone,so is great news.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011

STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER
LAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS
FROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A
SECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT
AREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA
SOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE
SOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE
OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS
COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE
REMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 21.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 22.1N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 22.1N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.4N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 20.6N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 19.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Thanks Cycloneye and the others .

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Carry the umbrella for the next few days those who live in the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST SAT OCT 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID/UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE FEW DAYS.
RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL RELOCATE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING
MORE INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS SCATTERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WETTER THAN NORMAL TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME OF THE CELLS AFFECTING PARTS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLES AND THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FADING BY MID MORNING...GIVING WAY TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS
AND MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALLOWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE BUT OVERALL
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK LOOK MORE UNSETTLED/WETTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR A WHILE ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHEN AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA. OVERALL...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ACTIVE/BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ...FROM 29/17Z
THROUGH 29/22Z...IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL PEAKED LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS PER BUOY OBS. THIS NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE FADING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 40
STT 87 78 87 79 / 20 10 10 40

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT OCT 29 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE TOMORROW
BUT INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE PASSING
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
TUTT LOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...IN COMBINATION WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FOR
NEXT WEEK...PW VALUES INCREASE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
A FAIRLY CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. PASSING SHOWERS MAY CAUSE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...WAVES ARE NOW 6 FEET OR LOWER ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS WAS CANCELED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 85 / 10 10 40 50
STT 78 87 79 86 / 10 10 40 50

[Gustywind]

Showers here sometimes strong with isolated but nice ligthnings. Looks like wet weather conditions are beginning to invade the EC islands. We shall see...

[cycloneye]

Good morning. As mentioned in past days,this week for the most part will be unsetteled with periods of rain for the Eastern Caribbean so prepare for that.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN OCT 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST...WILL
RESULT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE FA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT FIRST MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANTECEDENT DEEP LAYERED DRYNESS...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE APPEARS POISED TO AFFECT THE FA MONDAY...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF OVERALL DRYING IS CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD
PERTURBATION FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
THEN LAGGING BUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND...
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ONCE MOISTURE INCREASES
ACROSS FA...MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL LINGER FOR AWHILE.
THEREFORE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK
APPEARS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED...WITH AT THE VERY LEAST A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK
THROUGH AT LEAST 30/12Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER WESTERN PR BTWN 17Z AND 21Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS AT
THE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 75 / 20 40 50 40
STT 88 78 86 77 / 20 40 50 40

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,it looks like more rain for parts of CA that dont need more after the past couple of weeks of floodings and many deaths that occured.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN OCT 30 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND TUTT TO THE SOUTH...WILL RESULT
IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... GFS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES LOCATED JUST
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SHALLOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ON MONDAY
DURING THE DAY. FOR TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PATCHES OF
MUCH DRIER AIR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT INCREASING
DURING THE DAY...WITH A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO SHOWS DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SO
AT THIS TIME WE ARE EXPECTING PASSING SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PASSING SHOWERS AND
DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS ON MONDAY THAN HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...GIVEN THE FACT THAT DEEPER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TJMZ UNDER SHRA/TSRA UNTIL AROUND 30/22Z.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS
TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 31/12Z. MAINLY EAST TO
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES
TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AT 9
AM FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 40 50 30 40
STT 78 86 77 86 / 40 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
923 PM AST SUN OCT 30 2011

.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DEPICTED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT LOW NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC AND INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 50 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A MODERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME INTERVALS OF PASSING TRADE
WIND MOISTURE WILL REACH THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE TO SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY
MID WEEK. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL EXPECT AN OVERALL
WETTER WEATHER PATTERN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TJSJ...
TIST...AND TISX THROUGH ABOUT 31/12Z. BETWEEN 31/16Z-31/22Z...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA.
MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

MARINE UPDATE...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AT 9 AM AST FOR INCREASING SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. What I highlighted in blue will be the norm this week for the Eastern Caribbean in the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST MON OCT 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN WILL
SLOWLY FILL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL DEEPEN/INTENSIFY
LATER IN THE WEEK. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MID WEEK AS AN
INVERTED TROF PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION
RESPONSIBLE FOR VERY ACTIVE WX JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE FEATURE IS
FCST TO WEAKEN MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL AIR MASS DESTABLIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY COLD DEEP
CONVECTION. WHILE TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING RECENTLY SOME HAVE HAD OVERSHOOTING TOPS AT
TIMES. ANY ORGANIZED CELLS TODAY MAY POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAIN DUE TO EXPECTED RELATIVELY FAST MOTION AND
HIGH HELICITY VALUES.

THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR TUE AND WED AS MID-UPPER LOW LIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. AFTER WED
THINGS TURN MUCH MORE UNSETTLED AS LARGE MID UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC NEAR 18N AND 50W MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED SFC TROF ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME POLAR TROF ACROSS THE ATLC BEGINS TO
DEEPEN. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO LIFT TOWARD THE AREA WHILE THE LARGE
SCALE TROF PROVIDES LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
A SIG RISK OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SAINT CROIX AND THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING THU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A
QUIET OCTOBER...THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF NOVEMBER LOOK TO BE RATHER
WET AND STORMY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK THROUGH AT LEAST 31/15Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR BTWN 31/17Z-
21Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN AND AROUND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 5 TO 15
KTS FROM SFC TO 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5-7 FT ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS IN MIXED
NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES. SHORTER PERIOD SEAS
WILL BE MOST PREDOMINANT EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE LONGER PERIOD
SEAS LATER IN THE WEEK AS TRADES SUBSIDE AND AREA BECOMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF POLAR TROUGHS/FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 30 30 10 10
STT 87 80 87 80 / 10 40 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON OCT 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY LATER IN THE WEEK. TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
MID WEEK AS AN INVERTED TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALSO A CU LINE DEVELOPED OVER THE ST THOMAS ISLANDS SPREAD WEST
AND AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TONIGHT ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

STILL EXPECTING A MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT 01/22Z. OCNL MVFR CONDS MAY BE EXPECTED AT
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 01/22Z AND DOWNSTREAM FROM CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
TIL 31/21Z. BETWEEN 01/17Z AND 01/22Z AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
OCNL MVFR AT TJMZ. LLVL WINDS E 10 TO 20 KT./WS


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS IN MIXED
NORTH SWELLS AND EAST GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THIS WEEK. A NNW SWELL WITH PERIODS OF BETWEEN 11 AND 13
SECONDS WILL BE ARRIVING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY
MORNING


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 76 / 40 30 10 20
STT 87 77 88 77 / 20 40 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 PM AST MON OCT 31 2011

.UPDATE...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATED A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...AS
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW NEAR 55 WEST APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP LOOSENS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A LIGHT
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN..THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE.
BY THEN IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATER AND
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. LATER ON THE WEEK AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...
THE TUTT WILL AGAIN BECOME AMPLIFIED JUST WEST OF THE AREA...AS IT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE THROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO STILL SUGGESTS A
VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR
NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION AS ACTIVE
WEATHER MIGHT BE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here come the rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS FROM
THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE CNTRL ATLC. THESE ARE TO FILL OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND MERGE WITH AN AMPLIFLYING TROF ACROSS THE W
ATLC. SFC TROUGH JUST EAST OF 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ALOFT
OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING WEST OF 70W.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF OUR
PICTURE BY 18Z TODAY WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE WED MORNING FIRST FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN ACROSS THE USVI/ERN
PR WED AFTERNOON BEHIND PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST
OF 60W THIS MORNING. THIS SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER FOR SVRL DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT
WILL HAVE INCREASINGLY MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A LONGWAVE
TROF FCST TO UNDERGO SIG AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. VERY
DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES WILL THEN POOL
ACROSS THE USVI AND ERN PR THU-SUN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROF. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON EAST SIDE OF TROF AXIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI/BVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS TROF
AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVR THE WEEKEND IT HELP THEN PUSH A
SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SOUTH OF THE USVI BY
MON EVENING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z GLOBAL MODELS. NORTHEAST
TRADES THEN STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLC BEHIND SHEARLINE/FRONTAL ZONE.
WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC BDRY FCST TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR SVRL
DAYS...THE RISK FOR AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (HIGH IMPACT) EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE USVI AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS AT SOME POINT OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 01/12Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER SW PR BTWN 17Z-21Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJMZ/TJPS.
EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE
SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT THRU THU MORNING THEN BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN
NORTH SWELLS WITH SCA EXPECTED. CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE MUCH OVR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH WINDS FCST TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A FRONTAL ZONE. SEAS MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH TSTMS REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.CLIMATE...OCT 2011 WAS THE SECOND DRIEST OCT ON RECORD AT THE CYRIL
E. KING ARPT IN ST. THOMAS WITH ONLY 1.95 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS
A SHARP CONTRAST TO LAST YEAR`S WHEN 16.20 INCHES FELL MOSTLY DURING
THE FIRST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OTTO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 78 86 78 / 20 0 30 50
STT 87 79 87 79 / 20 20 50 80