2011 SE TX/SW LA Weather: Nice weather next several days

[southerngale]

It looks like we have a decent chance of rain. I'll be in Houston tomorrow. With temps plunging in the afternoon, I guess I better bring a jacket. It's always fun to dress for those days that are both hot and cold.

[Tireman4]

It looks like we have a decent chance of rain. I'll be in Houston tomorrow. With temps plunging in the afternoon, I guess I better bring a jacket. It's always fun to dress for those days that are both hot and cold.

I am hoping that sucker gets here early. I run at 4"30 pm

[vbhoutex]

Already having streamer showers on the West side. Obvious instability as some of the showers are showing attempts at lowering/wall clouds(?) with scud and some minor turning. Starting to wonder if we may have storms as opposed to just some rain. I guess we'll take precipitation however we can get it.
Hope you brought your umbrella SG.

[Tireman4]

The front is now south of Crockett.......



http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[southerngale]

Already having streamer showers on the West side. Obvious instability as some of the showers are showing attempts at lowering/wall clouds(?) with scud and some minor turning. Starting to wonder if we may have storms as opposed to just some rain. I guess we'll take precipitation however we can get it.
Hope you brought your umbrella SG.

I brought it, but I didn't need it. It was raining at my house while I was in Houston, though.

And then it rained quite a bit overnight, pretty hard at times. Pretty hard by the latest standards, anyway. lol
It's pretty dry now, but there were puddles this morning and a little water in some of the ditches. Very much welcomed rain! And I saw that at least parts of the Houston area got some rain too.

This morning it was cold... I wanted to crawl back in my bed.

[vbhoutex]

Already having streamer showers on the West side. Obvious instability as some of the showers are showing attempts at lowering/wall clouds(?) with scud and some minor turning. Starting to wonder if we may have storms as opposed to just some rain. I guess we'll take precipitation however we can get it.
Hope you brought your umbrella SG.

I brought it, but I didn't need it. It was raining at my house while I was in Houston, though.

And then it rained quite a bit overnight, pretty hard at times. Pretty hard by the latest standards, anyway. lol
It's pretty dry now, but there were puddles this morning and a little water in some of the ditches. Very much welcomed rain! And I saw that at least parts of the Houston area got some rain too.

This morning it was cold... I wanted to crawl back in my bed.

I hear you on the crawl back in the bed.
We ended up with 0.44" from last nights rain-better than nothing. It's managed a high of 58f so for today. That's just about half of some of our temps this summer. Next week looks like it is going to be really nice.

[jasons2k]

I got .41" last week. I sure hope we get some more with this next front - the plants really need it!

I never thought I would hope for a freeze but the allergies this year are a nightmare - worst I remember in a long time. Maybe it's all the dust too

[vbhoutex]

I got .41" last week. I sure hope we get some more with this next front - the plants really need it!

I never thought I would hope for a freeze but the allergies this year are a nightmare - worst I remember in a long time. Maybe it's all the dust too

Yep my allergies are the worst I can remember in years!!!UUUGGGHHHH!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff:

Red Flag Warning‏


Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for today


Wind Advisory in effect until 700pm

Strong cold front has cleared the coast and is rapidly roaring southward into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. NW winds of 15-25mph have been common behind this front with gust to near 40mph. In fact offshore platforms above the sea surface have been gusting to near 45-50mph this morning. Strong cold air advection is sending temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s across the region and we should continue to see the temperature slide downward through about 900am before we start to get some recovery. Radar is also showing a few post frontal showers over Victoria, Jackson, and Wharton counties and this activity should end quickly this morning.

High pressure will be nearly directly overhead tonight producing a cold night across the entire region. Dewpoints falling into the 20’s this afternoon combined with winds going calm will result in surface heating today being lost to space. Temperatures will crater after sunset with Friday morning lows the coldest of the season so far. Expecting mid 30’s north of HWY 105 and a few areas could reach freezing in this area. Upper 30’s along US 59 and low 40’s near the coast. Freeze warning has been issued for areas just to our west across central TX, but the current feeling is that widespread freezing temperatures will not impact our area and thus no warning at this time.

Red Flag Warning:

Other issue will be fire weather today with strong winds and falling RH. Still looks to be a marginal day with winds being the main controlling factor and RH finally bottoming out around 20% west of I-45 this afternoon. Winds of 15-25mph will continue through the early afternoon hours and then begin to weaken as the surface high builds overhead. Fine fuels have recovered some due to recent rainfall and suspect starts even with favorable air mass conditions will be on the low side. However should a fire get started rapid spread would be possible especially in the ladder and canopy fuels which remain very dry.

Extended:

As quick as it will come today and tonight, the surface high and cold will be shifting east on Friday and SE winds return on Saturday as the western US trough reloads. Noisy SW flow aloft will combine with increasing Gulf moisture to produce at least a 20-30% chance of showers late Saturday –Monday mainly from activity moving inland off the Gulf. Next cold front is due into the region late Tuesday and this front looks to have a decent shot at rainfall with plenty of moisture to work with. Additionally, post frontal clouds and rainfall may linger into Wednesday under another round of cold air advection. We shall see if the models continue with this wet trend or if the ongoing drought wins out again.

[vbhoutex]

Sitting here listening to and watching a torrential downpour thunderstorm, not near severe limits. At one point I could only see about 250 feet down the street. It has let up a little, but I now know my gutters need cleaning again since they are overflowing. I'll report when I can on the amount of precip. This one was unexpected. Radar did show a small shower developing close to our SW but it wasn't showing torrential downpours. My guess is the cap my be broken as quickly as this one went up. If that is the case then this afternoon may get dicy.

Edit@12:40pm-That was a quick(30 min. max.)0.80"?(still raining). Even though it looks like it is almost over we have a steady moderate rain falling. I hope there is more where this came from. Every little bit counts!!

[vbhoutex]

That same cell ended up producing a tornado in NE Houston in the Kingwood area. Tireman4 are you ok?

[Tireman4]

Yeah. I never saw it. I saw flashes of light from lightning, but that was it. It never rained from that cell either. Weird.

Edit...it hit in Kingwood Village around 3 ish pm. I was at work. That is around 10 miles from us.....

[southerngale]

Hoping for some much needed rain today... *does a rain dance*



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 885
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 885 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-005-015-039-041-051-071-073-089-145-157-161-167-185-199-
201-225-239-241-245-289-291-293-313-321-331-339-347-351-361-365-
373-395-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-152200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0885.111115T1500Z-111115T2200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN
BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON
CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO
FALLS FORT BEND FREESTONE
GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON LEON
LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON
MATAGORDA MILAM MONTGOMERY
NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE
PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON
RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON WHARTON
$$

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully we can get some too, we're back in severe drought after it was temporarily eliminated after TS Lee . Doesn't look like much cold air around for next week either. How does everyone like 80 degrees and turkey?

[vbhoutex]

Haven't looked at anything but the radar. To our West it is starting to intensify and fill in in many areas. Some areas are showing 2"/hr. rates too. It appears to me that there could be a convergence of the shortwave coming in from the West and an area out over the GOM which is moving N towards the upper TX coast. Not sure if or where it will happen, but where/if it does I wouldn't be surprised to see some 3" or more totals and possible isolated local flooding. JMHO

PT, btdt too many times on the 80 and turkey!! I don't like it but I do have to live with it.

edit(12:43pm)-Having a short shower coming through. Let the rain begin.

Like you PT, we are still in Exceptional Drought and it just keeps getting worse. Depending on where in the metro area you live the deficits range from around -26" to over -40". Going to take a long time to overcome those. Once again I say LET IT RAIN!!

[southerngale]

While the worst of it missed me (again), it's gotten kinda rough in some areas. Several tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings in the area. I did get some stormy weather with lots of thunder and lightning, but the bulk of the rain missed me to my north, south, east, and west. grrrrrrr!

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-351-160015-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0027.111115T2327Z-111116T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
527 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES KIRBYVILLE...
CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...CALL...

* UNTIL 615 PM CST

* AT 524 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
KIRBYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROGANVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3095 9396 3078 9360 3052 9391 3059 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 208DEG 27KT 3065 9393

$$

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

TXZ201-215-216-259>262-160015-
HARDIN TX-NORTHERN JASPER TX-NORTHERN NEWTON TX-JEFFERSON TX-
ORANGE TX-SOUTHERN JASPER TX-SOUTHERN NEWTON TX-
512 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 506 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BEAUMONT BY 515 PM...
PORT NECHES BY 520 PM...
ROSE CITY AND LUMBERTON BY 525 PM...
VIDOR AND LAKEVIEW BY 530 PM...
PINE FOREST...WEISS BLUFF...BRIDGE CITY AND SILSBEE BY 535 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM TUESDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3013 9435 3072 9378 2998 9380 2996 9384
2991 9388 2988 9436

$$

[vbhoutex]

Apparently we had a tornado warning while I was out picking up my granddaughter from preschool. Local media has shown at least two pictures of a wall cloud with either a funnel cloud or at least a lowering. I can confirm the wall cloud and the lowering. I didn't get close enough to confirm a funnel cloud since I had my granddaughter in the car with me and it was moving away from where I was. At this point I have heard no reports of damage or a touchdown. While it was raining it was torrential. Here at the house we only got 0.20" so it appears the heavier of the rains were West and North of me as I thought they would be. Where I was when it hit my guess is at least an inch of rain if not more fell, but I didn't have a gauge to check there.

[MGC]

Noticed a impressive couplet on the radar this afternoon NE of Houston. Is that the same cell you are talking about?....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Noticed a impressive couplet on the radar this afternoon NE of Houston. Is that the same cell you are talking about?....MGC

I believe that was another one, as there were two reported in the metro area. I guess it would depend if that couplet you saw was well NE of Houston or in the metro area. What I saw was in the N suburbs of Houston. The other one I know about was well NE of Houston and was reported here as a well defined couplet also. So far none of the reports have been verified as touch downs and no damage has been reported.

[PTrackerLA]

Picked up about .74" officially but almost an inch where I live judging by my cheap rain gauge. We'll take it because we sure needed it!