NIO: KEILA - Tropical Storm

[Chickenzilla]

East of Oman,Yemen,whatever

Looks pretty good on infrared:

[salmon123]

ABIO10 PGTW 281230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/281230Z-281800ZOCT2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 63.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.6E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF CAPE
GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN,
SCATTERED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, YET WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 280551Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE BROAD LLCC, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND LIGHTER
10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS IN A DIVERGENT REGION, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

Now officially a depression, ARB 02:

Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 29th October 2011 near latitude 13.00N and longitude 62.00E, about 1400 km west of Mangalore (Karnataka), 850 km east of Socotra Island (Yemen) and 950 km southeast of Salalah (Oman) The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move west northwestwards towards Gulf of Aden during next 72 hrs.


As the depression is expected to move west-northwestwards away from west coast of India, no adverse weather will occur along and off west of coast of India under the influence of this system. However, the system is under constant watch for its further development.

The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 29th October, 2011


JTWC:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
64.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA . ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN,
SCATTERED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, YET WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 280551Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE BROAD LLCC, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND LIGHTER
10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS IN A DIVERGENT REGION, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
WITH AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[TheEuropean]

Becoming better organized:

[TheEuropean]

Most Recent Positions:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0830 UTC 15.9N 56.0E T2.5/2.5 95A -- Arabian Sea
01/0230 UTC 15.9N 56.5E T2.0/2.0 95A -- Arabian Sea
31/2030 UTC 16.0N 55.7E T2.0/2.0 95A -- Arabian Sea
31/1430 UTC 15.9N 56.8E T1.5/1.5 95A -- Arabian Sea
31/0830 UTC 15.3N 58.0E T1.5/1.5 95A -- Arabian Sea

Looks like a storm now, but JTWC says this:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
58.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 57.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 311542Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. SHIP OBSERVATIONS
NEAR THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC HAVE INDICATED 20 TO 25
KNOT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND A BUOY REPORT (11908) SHOWED A SLP
VALUE AS LOW AS 1001.7 MB BUT CURRENTLY 1002.8 MB. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER
THE LLCC. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE BEING HAMPERED BY DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 27C) AND THE BROAD LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Nightwatch]

It is said November and May are most active months for NIO?

Atlantic normally has August/September..
Howcome they have 2 months, separated by half a year, with most active periods?

[Macrocane]

Actually it does look very good, it may already be a minimal TS.

[Chacor]

IMD:

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 1730 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 1ST NOVEMBER 2011 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.00N AND LONGITUDE 55.50E, ABOUT 2100 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGALORE (43284), 400 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN AND ADJOINING YEMEN COAST CLOSE TO SOUTH OF SALALAH AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF 2ND NOVEMBER 2011.

THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION SHOWS NO CHANGE DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER AREA LAT 13.50N TO 20.00N & LONG 50.50E TO 57.00E SOUTHEAST OMAN AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST NORTHWEST ARABIAN SEA REST N OMAN BETWEEN LAT 19.00N TO 24.00N & LONG 55.00E TO 65.00E ADJOINING GULF OF OMAN.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVE CTION IS AROUND -82C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA LEVEL DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PAST 12 HRS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOWS NO CHANE DURING PAST 12 HRS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 26-27C AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS (< 40 KJ/CM2) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER GULF OF ADEN AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION HAS DECREASED AND FAVOURABLE AS IT IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 05-10 KNOTS). THERE IS NEGATIVE 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 9-5 TO -10 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG 18N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOURS PRESSURE TENDENCY IS NEGATIVE ALONG OMAN COAST.THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE(MSLP) HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SALALAH (41316) OF 1001.2, PRESSURE CHANGE IN LAST 24 HRS (P24P24) OF -1.8 HPA. THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST MOVEMENT TOWARDS GULF OF ADEN/ OMAN COAST, THERE IS LARGE VARIATION IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. ECMWF MODEL SHOWS WEST-NORTHWARDS MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS. CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN AND ADJOINING YEMEN COAST CLOSE TO SOUTH OF SALALAH AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF 2ND NOVEMBER 2011.

[DanieleItalyRm]

Only INVEST? Evident good TD or TC for me.

[TheEuropean]

Only INVEST? Evident good TD or TC for me.

For me, too.

NRL says 35kt with 996mb

And here are the latest data from SSD:

Most Recent Positions:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/0230 UTC 16.3N 55.3E T3.0/3.0 03A -- Arabian Sea
01/2100 UTC 16.0N 54.9E T3.0/3.0 95A -- Arabian Sea
01/1430 UTC 15.9N 55.7E T2.5/2.5 95A -- Arabian Sea
01/0830 UTC 15.9N 56.0E T2.5/2.5 95A -- Arabian Sea
01/0230 UTC 15.9N 56.5E T2.0/2.0 95A -- Arabian Sea

So, T.S: for me.

[P.K.]

Now Cyclonic Storm Keila.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM KEILA ADVISORY NO ONE ISSUED AT 0600UTC OF 2ND NOVEMBER 2011 BASED ON 0300 UTC CHARTS OF 2ND NOVEMBER 2011.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARD, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM KEILA AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 2ND NOVEMBER 2011 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.00N AND LONGITUDE 55.00E, ABOUT 2150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGALORE (43284), 400 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN AND ADJOINING YEMEN COAST TO SOUTH OF SALALAH AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF 3RD NOVEMBER 2011.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)


POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)


SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

02-11-2011/0300


16.0/55.0


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

02-11-2011/0600


16.0/54.5


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

02-11-2011/1200


16.0/54.0


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

02-11-2011/1800


16.0/53.5


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

03-11-2011/0000


16.0/53.0


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

03-11-2011/1200


16.0/52.0


65-75 GUSTING TO 85

04-11-2011/0000


15.5/51.0


45-55 GUSTING TO 65



THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 12 HRS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER AREA SOUTH OMAN ADJOINING YEMEN BET LAT 13.50N TO 20.00N LONG 52.50E TO 58.00E AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST OMAN ADJOINING NORTHWEST ARSEA.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVE CTION IS AROUND -850C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY ROUGH TO HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 998 HPA.

STORM SURGE GUIDE:

STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT ONE METRE ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT.

REMARK:

THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT 850 HPA LEVEL DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PAST 12 HRS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOWS NO CHANE DURING PAST 12 HRS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 26-270C AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS (< 40 KJ/CM2) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND NOT FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER GULF OF ADEN AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION HAS DECREASED AND FAVOURABLE AS IT IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS). THERE IS NEGATIVE 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (-5 TO -10 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG 180N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOURS PRESSURE TENDENCY IS POSITIVE ALONG OMAN COAST.THE LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE(MSLP) HAS BEEN REPORTED BY SALALAH (41316) OF 1004; BUOY (POSITION: LAT 16.50N/ LONG 55.10E) REPORTED MSLP OF 999.2 HPA AND P24P24 OF -1.1 HPA. THERE IS LARGE VARIATION IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST BY NWP MODELS. WIND IS STRONGER IN EASTERN SIDE THAN IN WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH OMAN AND ADJOINING YEMEN COAST TO SOUTH OF SALALAH AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF 3RD NOVEMBER 2011.

[TheEuropean]

a little weaker:

02/0830 UTC 16.8N 54.8E T2.5/3.0 KEILA -- Arabian Sea

[Extratropical94]

Man I though that season bust would last the whole year in the NIO.
Now the 0-storm record is gone