Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

A new cold surge began on saturday, the winds have been stronger than the previous one but the temperatures have not been that cold, I will make two post, on this one I will post Sunday temperatures:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 22°C (72°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.8°C (65.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.4°C (48.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.3°C (52.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F) Coolest since March 27
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.9°C (75.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 30°C (86°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.4°C (63.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.2°C (93.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.7°C (80.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.5°C (86.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 11.4°C (52.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 18.8°C (65.8°F)

[Macrocane]

And now yesterday temperatures, the cold surge continued diminishing the highs (althoguh the lows increased a little in some locations):

-The lows were near normal in all the countries.
-The highs were cooler than normal in the whole region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.8°C (55.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20°C (68°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.1°C (66.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.4°C (70.5°F) Coolest since August 2
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 28°C (82°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 30.4°C (86.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C (70°F) Coolest since January 14
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F) Coolest since February 13
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 28.4°C (83.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 10.8°C (51.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.6°C (61.9°F)

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe is since 12AM, under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST TUE NOV 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE ARE TO FILL OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND MERGE WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROF ACROSS THE W
ATLC. SFC TROUGH JUST EAST OF 60W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY PEAKING
ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY BECOMING MORE DRY ON SATURDAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A SHEARLINE/FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE SUNDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS OVR CORDILLERA
CENTRAL IN PR AND BRIEF MVFR AT TJMZ TIL 01/21Z OTHERWISE VFR. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND SPREAD SOME SHWRS ACROSS
LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT 01/20Z ...USVI AFT 02/02Z AND PR AFT 02/08Z.
OUTLOOK: CONDS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFT 02/16Z THROUGH 03/12Z AS
TROF MOVES TOWARD AREA FROM E. LLVL WINDS LIGHT AND VRB TO 12 KFT
EXCEPT FOR LCL SEA BREEZES BCMG SELY 5 TO 15 KT AFT 03/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...A MEDIUM PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS COULD EVEN REACH THE 7
FEET LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC LOCAL
WATERS BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH ENERGY COULD REACH
THE LOCAL WATERS...THEREFORE WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE PEAKING
THE SWELL AT 6 FEET. ANOTHER SWELL EPISODE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED WILL RANGE
IN BETWEEN 6 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER AND EVEN BIGGER SWELL WILL BE REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 78 86 / 0 30 50 70
STT 79 87 79 86 / 20 50 80 70

[Gustywind]

METEO

Yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms

franceantilles.fr01.11.2011

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 144560.php


Hot and humid air masses slowly goes back to our islands by flows of South-East and pours some good rains and stormy showers. Note that the cold air of altitude and the failure of wind can reactivate the storm cells at any time the next night. 52 mm has already registered to Baie Mahault, Deshaies 76 mm and 60 mm in Pointe-Noire within 12 hours.

Despite a few respites moments this afternoon good showers will still trigger. As a result 60 to 100 mm in plain and 100 to 120 mm in the mountains are therefore to fear during the next 24 hours. Note that the cold air of altitude and the failure of wind can reactivate the storm cells at any time the next night. For information a few "waterspouts" were observed near the codend of Sac Marin. These are phenomena without great danger and usual under a convergence zone: "cad" cumulonimbus, sea breeze, weak winds of low layer. This particular phenomenon can still be reproduce.
The risk of rising of water courses is very high, outbursts of gullies, sudden floods, and risk of lightning strikes. Caution is advised on all and all.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

how's the weather there, Gusty?

[Gustywind]

how's the weather there, Gusty?

Hi Barbara !Thunder is rumbling nicely sometimes with light showers in vicinity of my location. And what's the weather in the Northern Leewards?

[cycloneye]

As I have been posting the discussions from the San Juan NWS in past days,bad weather would invade the Eastern Caribbean,and tonight it looks like it will be that way,so let's be on alert for the next two to three days.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. I will keep all informed of any news concerning this rain event.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST WED NOV 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...A GRADUAL INCREASE ON
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.15 INCHES ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE POLAR TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.

THEREFORE...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAYS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BEHIND THE SHEARLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS AT JBQ/JMZ/JPS AND USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS
THRU 03/00Z. THEN PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS THRU 12Z SAT ALMOST
EVERYWHERE XCPT JMZ/JBQ AS DEEP MOISTURE ENCROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...WHERE SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 7
FEET BEFORE FADING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 76 / 30 70 90 40
STT 86 78 85 78 / 50 90 100 70

[msbee]

all quiet here in St. Maarten

[Gustywind]

all quiet here in St. Maarten

Thanks for your report Barbara. Guadeloupe is quiet too, but given the local forecasters things should evolve this afternoon with numerous episodes of strong showers and tstorms. Let's be vigilant as usual..

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1202 PM AST WED NOV 2 2011

AMZ710-712-715-725-732-735-021900-
1202 PM AST WED NOV 2 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 1156 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE WEST OF SAINT CROIX AND JUST SOUTH OF SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.


MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1702 6735 1802 6642 1799 6611 1806 6585
1832 6569 1842 6605 1952 6501 1949 6415
1697 6421

$$

JJA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

Here in Puerto Rico it has been a cloudy and rainy afternoon for many areas of the island.And it looks like this is only the start of the anticipated big rain event,so I will keep all informed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST WED NOV 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY/DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOALETD TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINED OVER WATERS SURROUNDING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVE AREA MOVED SLOWLY WEST GENERATING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE ON SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ALSO DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRIGGER
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH WEST PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...A
GRADUAL INCREASE ON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.20
INCHES ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE
POLAR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND AFFECT THE TJNR...TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS. TONIGHT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND AFFECT THE ALL U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TERMINALS...TNCM AND TJPS ALSO GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...LATEST REPORTS FROM THE 41043 AND 41053 BUOYS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WAVE HEIGHT WELL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THEREFORE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE BUOY 41048 LOCATED ABOUT 920 MILES NNW OF SAN JUAN HAS
BEEN REPORTING SWELLS OF ABOVE 11 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS
SINCE 3 AM. THESE SWELLS WILL TAKE ABOUT 48 HOURS TO REACH OUR
LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THESE SWELLS TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 8
FEET AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ALL PASSAGES. THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN DANGEROUS FACTOR AS WAVE
WITH THIS PARAMETER...7 TO 8 FEET AND 12 TO 14 SECONDS... COULD
GENERATE BREAKING WAVES OF BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUE FOR ALL ATLANTIC EXPOSED BEACHES. A BIGGER
SWELL EVENT COULD BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING
BUT WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS THIS WAVE FORECAST COULD BE
CONTAMINATED WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE REGION ASSOCIATED TO THE
SHEARLINE IN THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 86 / 70 80 40 40
STT 78 85 78 86 / 80 80 70 60

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain for today is expected in Puerto Rico/USVI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST THU NOV 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL WATERS. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
WERE DETECTED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PR WHERE
NWS DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN.

A VERY UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES ABOVE 2.00 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS POLAR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...BRINGING A SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

IN RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THEREFORE...PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TSTMS LIKELY AT JBQ/JMZ BETWEEN 18Z-00Z TODAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS XPCD. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF CONVECTION ARE
NOT AS HIGH SO WENT WITH VCTS AND PROB30 GROUP. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FIVE DAYS
WITH CHANCE/LIKELY TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES TOMORROW...WITH SEAS MARGINALLY SAFE (UP TO
7 FEET). A BIGGER SWELL EVENT COULD BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON MONDAY MORNING BUT WENT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AS THIS WAVE
FORECAST COULD BE CONTAMINATED WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 75 / 70 40 40 20
STT 85 76 87 78 / 70 60 60 40

[cycloneye]

So far,where I am has not recieved a drop of rain,only clody skies,while SE PR and USVI have got a lot.But the pattern looks like it will continue unsetteled with periods of rain for the next few days in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST THU NOV 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A TROUGH WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAT WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED AND HUMID.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERSISTENT SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES. AS WELL
AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI. FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR THOSE AREAS EARLIER TODAY DUE TO THIS RAIN.

SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP US UNDER HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...ACCORDING TO THE GFS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
SUBSIDENT AS SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF EITHER NEUTRAL OR
SMALL AREAS OF SLIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO A FEW ISOLATED AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER PR...THE USVI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL KEEP CLOUDY UNSETTLED CONDS
OVER THE FA. AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST OVR LCL ISLANDS
THROUGH 04/22Z. OCNL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AT ALL
TAF SITES. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT
04/18Z. LLVL WINDS S-SE 10-20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL AND OUTER BUOYS DID NOT REPORT ANY WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 6 FEET OR HIGHER...MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT BUT
BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVER ESTIMATING A BIT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 75 87 / 40 40 20 50
STT 76 87 78 86 / 60 60 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST THU NOV 3 2011

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
MONA CHANNEL AS FAR SOUTH AS 16.5 NORTH. SHOWERS ARE ALSO
ENCROACHING ON MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND VIEQUES FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE
ONSHORE AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO
AFFECT CEIBA AND FAJARDO. ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT CROIX...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL GOOD
FOR A FEW MINUTES OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE SUNRISE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LURKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BORDERS OF
THE OUTER MARINE WATERS AS OF 8:45 PM AST AND A FEW MAY BE NORTH
OF ARECIBO JUST OUTSIDE THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW JUST NORTH OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE BROAD
TROUGH SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
WELL AS A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE GENERAL AREA
FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE SOUNDING REMAINS WET WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REGISTERING AT 2.41 INCHES. MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING AT 850
MB DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEREFORE HAVE PUT IN ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
CONVECTION AND LIGHT WINDS WILL NOT DRIVE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TOO
STRONGLY. EXPECT MODELS WILL NOT PERFORM WELL AT PIN-POINTING
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL OFFER A GOOD GENERAL
DEPICTION OUT THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD INVERTED
SFC TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDS OVER THE FA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES IN SHRA/TSRA. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AFT 04/22Z. EVENING TJSJ RAOB SHOWED AN AVG 0-6KM
WIND OF 173DEG/6KT.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41047 IN THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS SHOWED 13 FEET
EARLIER TODAY AND BUOY 41043 NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAS JUST
BEGUN TO CLOSE IN ON 6 FEET WITH A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 11
SECONDS...THEREFORE EXPECT THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING AT 6 AM IN THE NORTHERN
MOST ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. SWELL FROM THE LOW WHICH GENERATED THE WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN LATER IN THE DAY AS
WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE. AS SWELL NEAR THE AREA CONDITIONS MAY
WARRANT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR OUTER BUOY
CONFIRMATION AS PERIOD AND SWELL FORECAST MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE.

[Macrocane]

Hi, I posted the observations of the 2nd cold surge of the season in Central America: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2204558#p2204558

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Another day with rain is expected for many parts of PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED
FOR VI...VIEQUES/CULEBRA AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

AN UNSTABLE AND FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO TROUGHINESS
AND PWAT VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 2.00 INCHES. IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY...LOCAL EFFECTS MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...TODAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY DUE TO FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS
SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SFC
TROUGH NOW MOV OVR THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WX CONDS OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR/PSBL IFR IN SHRA/TSRA AND LOW CIG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TISX...TIST...TJSJ...AND TJPS TIL AT LEAST 04/12Z
IN SHRA/TSRA. MTN AND HILL TOP OBSCR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ALONG E SECTION OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR. PRESENT TJUA VAD WIND
PROFILE AS WELL AS PREVIOUS TJSJ 04/00Z U/A SOUNDING SUGGESTED
VEERING SOUTHERLY WNDS OF 5-10 KTS BLO 15K FT BCMG SW AT 15-20 KTS
ABV.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES TODAY...WITH SEAS MARGINALLY SAFE
(UP TO 7 FEET). A BIGGER SWELL EVENT COULD BE REACHING OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 75 / 50 30 40 20
STT 86 75 86 78 / 60 40 30 40