WPAC: Invest 99W

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2N 121.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER NORTHERN LUZON. A 052106Z TRMM PARTIAL 37
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM RPLL (14.52N 121.00E) INDICATE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 05-10 KNOTS, SLP OF 1007 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP
FALL OF 2 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH
THE LLCC POSITIONED JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PRODUCING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS WEAK (< 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC AND INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


looks really organized...euro showing a weak tropical cyclone to develop near vietnam. we shall see...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
120.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060953Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE AND A 061348Z METOP-A SHOWS CURVED BANDING BUT OVERALL WEAK
LOW-LEVEL BANDING. A 061330Z OCEANSAT AND A 061347Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICT SHARP TROUGHING WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25-30 KNOT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ASCAT
AMBIGUITIES SUGGEST A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THE END
OF THE SHARP TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS) BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.



looks very much like a tropical cyclone!!!