MED: 01M/ROLF - Tropical Storm

[Crostorm]

[Kingarabian]

This poses a possible threat to France and its no where on the news?

[Crostorm]

video from Nice

http://youtu.be/gG-CKgkHYsA

http://youtu.be/NGWgbBlP1rs
This one is wow
http://youtu.be/3VSfN44zonQ

[Crostorm]

08/11/2011 21:00 Porquerolles (83) Vent 149 km/h =41 m/s

[Florida1118]

Dr.Master's take on this. He does not think it would be a TC if it were in NHC territory.

Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France
An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures.

"Rolf" is expected to move slowly northwards into the coast of South France by Wednesday night. Meteo France is predicting heavy rains of 30 - 40 mm/hr (1.2 - 1.6"/hr) will affect the coast Tuesday night through Wednesday, with sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 75 mph.

[TheEuropean]

I can't agree to Dr. Masters, this low is tropical for me and it is a storm. Not the absolute water temperature is important, we have to look at the temperature difference between the water and cold air in higher levels. Why is this not the same as in Epsilon, Vince etc.?

Edit to add this from the NHC discussion about "Sean":
"SINCE THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR
TEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING
IS LOWER THAN USUAL"

That is exact what I mean above.

[Crostorm]

[bg1]

A drawn "Best Track", inaccurate in spots but good enough, I think, with current position (blue for subtropical depression, yellow for tropical storm):


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[Crostorm]

The tail of 01M is on adriatic coast

[Crostorm]

24 hour animation

[DanieleItalyRm]

I can't agree to Dr. Masters, this low is tropical for me and it is a storm. Why is this not the same as in Epsilon, Vince etc.?

No one would have doubted if this was over the Atlantic ocean.
The Same Epsilone, Vince, Grace, Karl.. it is evident.. formed from tropical transition,
extratropical cyclone ---> Subtropical cyclone ---> Tropical cyclone
same latitude, same sea surface, same dynamical formation.. only a different sea..
They do not know, ignore or do not accept.
This and many other system are only simply Mediterranean Tropical Cyclone..



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[Hurricanehink]

Here is the track map from Wikipedia.

[CrazyC83]

Based on those reports with a buoy/ship I believe reporting around 51 kt (10-min?), I would say the intensity is 55 kt. I have a hard time going higher given the pressure and Dvorak numbers.

[HenkL]

Only looking at the temperature difference between the water and temperature at high levels, a lot of polar lows could be named as 'tropical storms'.
The impact of stormy winds are the same, being a tropical storm, a subtropical storm, an extratropical storm, a polar low. It is not unusual for some extratropical storms to reach even hurricane force winds.
I think it's time to have some new definitions.

[Crostorm]

TXMM21 KNES 090627
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 09/0600Z

C. 42.7N

D. 6.1E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T1.0/2.0/W2.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 01M. DT AND PT = 1.0.
FT IS BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING.

NIL


...KIBLER

[DanieleItalyRm]

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[DanieleItalyRm]

Similar to october 2007 system in the same location:


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[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Now TOO WEAK from SAB.

[DanieleItalyRm]

The Tropical depression 01M ( ex tropical storm 01M) make a landfall:

http://www.sat24.com/en/fr



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