Quite nice burst of convection near the possible center, and also the outflow from the southwest.
WPAC: INVEST 91W
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
WPAC: INVEST 91W
91WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-60N-1460E
Quite nice burst of convection near the possible center, and also the outflow from the southwest.
Quite nice burst of convection near the possible center, and also the outflow from the southwest.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Low chance of development within the next 24hrs according to JTWC.
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZNOV2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 143.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM BORNEO TO THE DATELINE. THIS SUSPECT AREA IS
APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. A
120036 ASCAT PASS REVEALS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Oh well. I have a weird feeling that this will be the last system of this year. Weird because it is not usual for WPAC to be this quiet in this time of the year especially that there is no El Nino phenomenon like in 2009-2010 or anything that could suppress TC activity. Maybe a perfect time to look forward to the cold Christmas season.
It seems that after Nalgae, the WPAC went lazy and was like mehh...had enough intense cyclones over me, I'm tired. LOL.
ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZNOV2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 143.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM BORNEO TO THE DATELINE. THIS SUSPECT AREA IS
APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. A
120036 ASCAT PASS REVEALS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
SPEEDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Oh well. I have a weird feeling that this will be the last system of this year. Weird because it is not usual for WPAC to be this quiet in this time of the year especially that there is no El Nino phenomenon like in 2009-2010 or anything that could suppress TC activity. Maybe a perfect time to look forward to the cold Christmas season.
It seems that after Nalgae, the WPAC went lazy and was like mehh...had enough intense cyclones over me, I'm tired. LOL.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.3N
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING RAPIDLY TOWARDS
THE SURIGAO STRAIT. A 132102Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED POLEWARD OF THE LLCC,
AND THAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT, WITH
HIGH DIFFLUENCE BUT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE TOP OF THE
SYSTEM. THE RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MITIGATING THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THUS FAR, BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS OVER MINDANAO AND THE
VISAYAS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL IMPEDE
DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NO IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW AND A STRONG CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS
FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF ANY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING RAPIDLY TOWARDS
THE SURIGAO STRAIT. A 132102Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED POLEWARD OF THE LLCC,
AND THAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS A MIXED ENVIRONMENT, WITH
HIGH DIFFLUENCE BUT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE TOP OF THE
SYSTEM. THE RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MITIGATING THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THUS FAR, BUT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS OVER MINDANAO AND THE
VISAYAS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL IMPEDE
DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS NO IMPINGEMENT ON
OUTFLOW AND A STRONG CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS
FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF ANY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W
Oh well. I have a weird feeling that this will be the last system of this year. Weird because it is not usual for WPAC to be this quiet in this time of the year especially that there is no El Nino phenomenon like in 2009-2010 or anything that could suppress TC activity. Maybe a perfect time to look forward to the cold Christmas season.
It seems that after Nalgae, the WPAC went lazy and was like mehh...had enough intense cyclones over me, I'm tired. LOL.
i am surprised as well but we have about 1 and a half month left for this year. we will see...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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