SW PAC: 01F - Tropical Disturbance (INVEST 95P)

[Chacor]

WWPS21 NFFN 132300 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 13/2329 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 178.0E AT
132100 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS AND IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.


ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED AND REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA. TD01F LIES UNDER A
250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Extratropical94]

Sweet, S-hemisphere gets going.

By the way, here are the names for this year:

Cyril 
Daphne
Evan
Freda
Garry
Haley
Ian
June
Kofi
Lusi

[senorpepr]

459
WWPS21 NFFN 140600
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 14/0831 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S 176.0E AT
140600 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON MTSAT VIS WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.


ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED AND REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA. TD01F LIES UNDER A
250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[senorpepr]

331
FQPS01 NFFN 141800
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
EQUATOR TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Nov 142000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 006 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 14/1943
UTC 2011 UTC.
IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 18S 175E 20S 178E 19S 179W 22S 179W 22S 175E
18S 175E, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM..

PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Nov 151800 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 178.0E AT
141800 UTC. POSITION POOR. MOVING SOUTH SOUTH EAST AT 05 KNOTS.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 03S 173E 09S 178E 15S 180 TO TD01F. CZ SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CZ.

TROUGH T1 04S 160E 05S 165E 10S 174E 15S 177E TO TD01F TO 20S 180 22S
176W 21S 170W 20S 165W. T1 SLOW MOVING. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF T1.

TROUGH T2 16S 155W 19S 148W 25S 138W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN
SOME RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF T2.

OUTSIDE GALE WARNING AREA IN THE AREA BOUNDED BY 15S 171E 22S 175E
22S 175E 22S 179W 23S 179W 25S 175E 22S 171E 15S 171E, EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.

IN THE AREA BETWEEN 10S AND 18S AND BETWEEN 179W AND 174W, EXPECT
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. VERY ROUGH SEAS.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
176.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 177.5E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AROUND A BROAD CLOUD-COVERED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 132209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20
KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS IN THE LLCC WITH SOME 30-KT BARBS EMBEDDED
IN THE CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION IS 31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Chacor]

WWPS21 NFFN 142100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 14/2317 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.3S 178.0E AT
142100 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELCIUS.


ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT BUT HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE PAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO 500 HPA. TD01F
LIES UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD01F IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HurricaneBill]

Sweet, S-hemisphere gets going.

By the way, here are the names for this year:

Cyril 
Daphne
Evan
Freda
Garry
Haley
Ian
June
Kofi
Lusi

Daphne, Garry, Haley, and Kofi are replacement names for Drena, Gavin, Hina, and Keli, respectively.

Drena:


Gavin:


Hina:


Keli:

[bg1]

Why did the last two get retired?

[HurricaneBill]

Why did the last two get retired?

From Wikipedia:

Drena:

On January 8, the weakening Cyclone Drena brushed the island of New Caledonia with sustained winds up to 150 km/h (90 mph 10-minute winds). Heavy rains accompanied the storm, peaking at 474 mm (18.7 in) in Dzumac. La Foa also recorded 202 mm (8.0 in) of rain. Wind gusts reached 165 km/h (105 mph) in Koumac. Flooding from the storm caused a total loss of crops and the high winds knocked out power and communication to most of the island.

Gavin:

Damages from the storm in Fiji amounted to $27 million. Seven people were killed and 18 others were listed as missing due to Cyclone Gavin.

Hina:

Cyclone Hina caused widespread damage in Tonga, leaving roughly $14.5 million in damages. About 320 families were left homeless after the storm.

Keli:

Cyclone Keli struck the islands of Tuvalu on June 12 and 13, with extensive damage reported throughout the Islands with trees uprooted by wind and waves. On Nivalakita all buildings except for the church were flattened with an estimated cost to rebuild the houses exactly as they were was estimated at AU$12,000 (US$10,000 1997), while it was estimated that the cost of rebuilding the houses with an improved, cyclone-resistant design would be about AU$84,000 (63,000 USD 1997). Whilst the whole of Tepuka Savilivili was left uninhabitable as coconut trees and other vegetation were swept away with no more than an area of jagged coral left behind. In Fiji, Strong winds and rough seas were reported from the cyclone as it was moving to the north of Fiji near to Rotuma, and whilst the Cyclone was weakening 3.76 in (96 mm) of rain was reported on American Samoa.

Tuvalu is an extremely low lying island nation that really can't afford to be hit by tropical cyclones. Lately, it's the poster child for climate change.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
177.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 178.3E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD (ILL-DEFINED) LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 150030Z TRMM 37
GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED LOW-
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 142158Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FIJI SHOW ONLY
5-10 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1004 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF AUSTRALIA, ENHANCED BY A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE POOR ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

WWPS21 NFFN 152200
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 15/2258 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S 179.5W AT
152100 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS WITH ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE UP TO
700 HPA. TD01F LIES UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD01F IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT SOUTHEAST
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.