Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Ample, wonderful rain falling here in Austin this morning. So welcomed!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is pretty humid gross weather right now, ready for another cool down. As far as the cold stuff not coming down, the chances of an epic snowstorm out of the cold air are slim so its best we wait until December to welcome it. Im ok with letting the air hang out up there, letting it build even more and the WHAM!. Give us some brutal cold air so the snow chances are higher.

[iorange55]

I can't remember a November so warm and especially humid. This is depressing. With a warm Thanksgiving probable it is not going to get better soon. The autumn leaves are slow in changing this year. It does not have the look or feel of mid November that's for sure. Some trees have great color but it is very sporadic and uneven. Some are dead from the summer. Sigh. Well, a couple days in the 60's with less humidty will be nice before more warmth and muggy air invades.

I can remember a few Novembers being really warm, usually it's kind of a transition month. I'm not too worried, I mean yeah the odds of a great winter are not good. But, I don't think it will be a total loss. I have "feeling" December might be nice and cold.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I'm pretty confident we'll get at least several snow/ice events from south central Texas on up north. As others have so well point out, those opportunities may come in a limited period but I do think they'll happen.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I'm pretty confident we'll get at least several snow/ice events from south central Texas on up north. As others have so well point out, those opportunities may come in a limited period but I do think they'll happen.

About a week ago I made a post about lack of SoCal/Northern Mex systems (baja lows) and what do you know, one comes and and more lines up lol must be a curse. I guess I should call for a torching winter! Nice to see you guys soak up today! Make us some watermen!

Maybe the wake up of the SJT is a sign that the weak nina might not have total suppression.

[gboudx]

Yesterday my area was in the 1.5-2" expected rainfall area for today's activity. I think what they meant was 1.5-2 drops of rain. Perhaps we got that much, not sure.

[orangeblood]

Yesterday my area was in the 1.5-2" expected rainfall area for today's activity. I think what they meant was 1.5-2 drops of rain. Perhaps we got that much, not sure.

Yep, really big forecast bust for the Fort Worth NWS. The NAM picked up on the more southerly track of the ULL much quicker than most of the other models....might be something to keep in mind going into the 2011-2012 winter.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yesterday my area was in the 1.5-2" expected rainfall area for today's activity. I think what they meant was 1.5-2 drops of rain. Perhaps we got that much, not sure.

Yep, really big forecast bust for the Fort Worth NWS. The NAM picked up on the more southerly track of the ULL much quicker than most of the other models....might be something to keep in mind going into the 2011-2012 winter.

Channel 4 news was pretty close to the forecast as Ron Jackson said all the rain would be well east of the DFW area.

[iorange55]

GFS seems like it's hinting towards some colder weather after Thanksgiving.

[newtotex]

Not being a professional met, I had two questions.

1) When will we know (if we don't already) if the NAO will be negative or positive for the winter?

2) After watching various videos on youtube (not professionals) and looking over the farmers almanac for this winter it seems as though this winter will not be AS dry as some think, at least in refering to the farmers almanac thats what im getting. Does anyone have any input on this??

I watched a video back in the late summer by someone who was doing a outlook for the 2012 winter and he showed the u.s having an Indian Summer into December and then getting blasted by cold by mid to late month, does anyone think this will pan out? Technically we are in an Indian Summer right?

[Portastorm]

Not being a professional met, I had two questions.

1) When will we know (if we don't already) if the NAO will be negative or positive for the winter?

2) After watching various videos on youtube (not professionals) and looking over the farmers almanac for this winter it seems as though this winter will not be AS dry as some think, at least in refering to the farmers almanac thats what im getting. Does anyone have any input on this??

I watched a video back in the late summer by someone who was doing a outlook for the 2012 winter and he showed the u.s having an Indian Summer into December and then getting blasted by cold by mid to late month, does anyone think this will pan out? Technically we are in an Indian Summer right?

Hey newtotex, I have a couple of thoughts on your post and I'm sure others here will chime in as well.

Predicting the NAO very far out is difficult. However, some very smart meteorological minds often look at summer patterns to set up winter patterns. There seems to be a lot of chatter online that some of these folks are expecting a negative NAO to set up in the next few weeks and stay that way for much of the winter. The NAO was negative for a fairly long time this past summer. But remember, there’s a lot more to consider than the NAO. You have to think about the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which often will predicate the magnitude of cold, Polar air available. Last winter, the AO overwhelmed a classic and very strong Nina to give us a fairly cold start to winter in the Southern Plains. You also have to consider the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). An intensifying PDO value will often enhance the net results of La Nina. For us that would mean more drought and more above normal temps, roughly.

Finally, the other thing to keep an eye on is called the MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation. When the MJO is in phases 6-7-8, it often means a stronger storm pattern over the southern half of the US. Other phases usually means the jet stream migrates further north and we end up with milder weather.

I’ve read several reliable meteorologists online who believe we’ll see a period of much below normal temps here in the Southern Plains before the year is over. They believe that the jet stream will buckle at some point and enable cold air to plunge south into our area and that the period will last several weeks. After that, we’re likely to go back to below normal precip/above normal temps. Whether this occurs in late November/early December or later on in December remains up for debate.

Finally, another thing I’ve learned is that with the current atmospheric patterns we have, the computer models long range are even less reliable than usual. Not sure exactly why other than to say that you’ll see a lot of variability from run to run when you’re looking at the models for an idea on weather 10-15 days out.

Other thoughts?

[iorange55]

ECMWF is showing a pretty big cold plunge after Thanksgiving. Still a ways out, but the signs look good to me.

Perfect weather to put up Christmas Lights and drink some hot chocolate.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

anybody else having trouble accessing the noaa.gov site? Not working for me...

i checked the models at the PSU, its about time we have something to watch! This is what we've been looking for!

[Kelarie]

Well up here in Texarkana, we need water. I don't care how it falls, as long as it falls. Tuesday night was nice, good some good rain, as well as a nice thunder and lightning show. Looks like this weekend is going to be a bit rainy, which no one can complain about.

There have been some comparisons made to 2000 for winter weather, which I believe there was a snowstorm/freezing rain event that hit this area pretty hard.

This could be an interesting winter weather season.

[aggiecutter]

Well up here in Texarkana, we need water. I don't care how it falls, as long as it falls. Tuesday night was nice, good some good rain, as well as a nice thunder and lightning show. Looks like this weekend is going to be a bit rainy, which no one can complain about.

There have been some comparisons made to 2000 for winter weather, which I believe there was a snowstorm/freezing rain event that hit this area pretty hard.

This could be an interesting winter weather season.

Pretty hard would be a gross understatement. A better word would be catastrophic. The whole town was without power for between a week to three weeks, some even longer. I talked to a linesman from Florida who came into help repair the electrical infrastructure, which was almost totally destroyed. He told me the tree and electrical infrastructure damage was comparable to that of Hurricane Andrew. An article is linked below talking about the ice storm.

http://www.writeforarkansas.org/texarka ... onal-news/

[Ntxw]

I think the NAO is a bit too overplayed here in TX. It usually brings us NW flow aloft which is cooler temps but nothing extraordinary as the brunt of troughs aim for the eastern seaboard. It's mostly a player along the east coast as the Atlantic has more of the influence there, December is the month I've noticed that it likes to go negative recently.

Almost every time, the major arctic outbreaks here is a net result of the PNA going positive. No matter what the other signals say, a good +PNA will call for exciting times in the southern plains and can overwhelm the pattern. The AO is of course the enhancer to everything. That's where I would look.

Early next week looks wet for Texas, maybe even some severe weather possible.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.weatherbrains.com/special/txsnowstorms.pdf

check out this link above. Did one of you guys make this? I found this while googling "full latitude trough," which Larry Cosgrove was talking about in his blog

[Portastorm]

I think the NAO is a bit too overplayed here in TX. It usually brings us NW flow aloft which is cooler temps but nothing extraordinary as the brunt of troughs aim for the eastern seaboard. It's mostly a player along the east coast as the Atlantic has more of the influence there, December is the month I've noticed that it likes to go negative recently.

Almost every time, the major arctic outbreaks here is a net result of the PNA going positive. No matter what the other signals say, a good +PNA will call for exciting times in the southern plains and can overwhelm the pattern. The AO is of course the enhancer to everything. That's where I would look.

Early next week looks wet for Texas, maybe even some severe weather possible.

Thanks for adding ... I had a nagging feeling I was missing an item or two in my previous post. I totally agree that the PNA is a significant marker of our weather in the winter. If we get a negative NAO, negative AO, and a positive PNA ... look out Texas!

[Turtle]

Looks to be getting colder near December. GFS is showing about 3" snow on the first of december.

[Portastorm]

http://www.weatherbrains.com/special/txsnowstorms.pdf

check out this link above. Did one of you guys make this? I found this while googling "full latitude trough," which Larry Cosgrove was talking about in his blog

Nice find! Wow ... this is a great document on snow-producing events in Texas. Highly recommended reading/viewing for ALL on this forum.