Possible EPAC late season development (Is invest 90E)

[cycloneye]

The models have been harping for a while about EPAC development and right now,a low pressure is analized south of Guatemala.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters made a good discussion today about a possible EPAC development and the historic story to this so late in the season at that basin.

Both the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans are quiet this week, and we are well past the date for the climatological formation of the season's last storm in both basins, particularly in the Eastern Pacific. A major reason for the lack of late-season activity in the Eastern Pacific is due to the cessation of African waves spawned by the African monsoon, which serve as low pressure "seeds" to get the atmosphere spinning and trigger formation of a tropical cyclone. However, the four top models for predicting formation of tropical storms unanimously agree that a tropical storm will form in the Eastern Pacific early next week, thanks to some unusual wave-like motions in the atmosphere that are generating low pressure systems over the Eastern Pacific, similar to African waves. The GFS model is forecasting that we will get not one, but two tropical storms forming in the Eastern Pacific over the next two weeks. Tropical storms are very rare in the Eastern Pacific this late in the year. Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983. None of these storms hit land, though the 1951 storm grazed the Baja. Next week's storm, if it forms, is expected to move west-northwest, parallel to the Mexican coast, but it is uncertain if it might pose a landfall threat or not.

[cycloneye]

Wow,that was quick as is now invest 90E. Go to Active Storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this area of interest.

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