Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[ndale]

Looks to be getting colder near December. GFS is showing about 3" snow on the first of december.

Yeah the gfs on twisterdata.com is even showing traces of snow for Austin on Dec. 2. I know it's several days out and probably just dreamland but interesting none the less.

[somethingfunny]

http://www.weatherbrains.com/special/txsnowstorms.pdf

check out this link above. Did one of you guys make this? I found this while googling "full latitude trough," which Larry Cosgrove was talking about in his blog

This is wonderful.

[gboudx]

If you don't get Larry's emails, here's the latest. He continues to talk about the patter change, starting next weekend, to colder.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ts_article

[Rgv20]

Just for fun, this is the 0zCMC forecast valid for Sunday morning 11/27. The 0c 850mb line is all the way south of Brownsville!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Just for fun, this is the 0zCMC forecast valid for Sunday morning 11/27. The 0c 850mb line is all the way south of Brownsville!

[orangeblood]

I think the NAO is a bit too overplayed here in TX. It usually brings us NW flow aloft which is cooler temps but nothing extraordinary as the brunt of troughs aim for the eastern seaboard. It's mostly a player along the east coast as the Atlantic has more of the influence there, December is the month I've noticed that it likes to go negative recently.

Almost every time, the major arctic outbreaks here is a net result of the PNA going positive. No matter what the other signals say, a good +PNA will call for exciting times in the southern plains and can overwhelm the pattern. The AO is of course the enhancer to everything. That's where I would look.

Early next week looks wet for Texas, maybe even some severe weather possible.

Another good indicator for winter weather in the southern US is the location of warming in the stratosphere at the 10-30mb level around 60N and up to the North Pole. This warming high up in the atmosphere usually predisposes warming and ridging underneath it. Currently this stratospheric warming is underway across the Northeast Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, which should translate into the PNA going positive in a couple of weeks. Something to keep an eye on!

[Rgv20]

I know we all are eagerly waiting for some cold weather but the GFS has been showing some decent rainfall totals thru the next 8 days. The pic below is tonight's 0zGFS which shows a good portion of the Lone Star State with anywhere from 1 to 4 total inches of rain thru next Saturday evening. Hopefully this rain event pans out!

[Portastorm]

As I have been saying, the medium-range models (GFS and Euro) have been highly variable from run to run regarding the 10-15 day period. Yesterday both models looked fairly warm. Today, much different story with both models portending a major cold outbreak by early December.

Get a load of this 0z Euro (below). We have a full latitude trough followed by an outbreak of very cold air from Canada. This would be quite entertaining should it come to fruition!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Ntxw]

It's all a tease!!! Don't believe it! They influenced the Canadians too. Lucy is at work already.



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Hm, I wonder if the recent Baja-Texas-Ohio Valley southern storm track is an indicator of the winter to come. Sure looks good.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm starting to see SOME similarities to 1989. I found this website the other day while looking at the latest in SST anomalies. That shows some similarities to 1989 because we are coming out of a La nina. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Also, i read on accuweather that temperature readings in Alaska are breaking records from 1989. I know this is a BIG statement since it held some of the biggest outbreaks in history but something to look at. Anyone care to add to this thesis?

[Portastorm]

While Nina has weakened, I don't know that I would say we are coming out of a La Nina. The values are still strong enough and the forecast suggests it'll continue through the winter.

[cycloneye]

While Nina has weakened, I don't know that I would say we are coming out of a La Nina. The values are still strong enough and the forecast suggests it'll continue through the winter.

Porta,La Nina is still hanging on,but we have to watch if that warm pool moves east and change things in the next 2-4 months. For those who may want to know how ENSO is doing go here

[Rgv20]

I was looking over the 12zGFS Ensembles and they are hinting at an interesting pattern to start the month of December.

This is the 12zGFS Ensembles 500mb Anomaly forecast valid for Wednesday Evening 11/30/2011.





The forecast map above is rather similar to the pattern set up back in December 12 1997 that brought cold conditions to Texas.




Of course all of these is just speculation but looking at the long range ensemble guidance it does look like December should start on a chilly side.

[richtrav]

I'm starting to see SOME similarities to 1989. I found this website the other day while looking at the latest in SST anomalies. That shows some similarities to 1989 because we are coming out of a La nina. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Also, i read on accuweather that temperature readings in Alaska are breaking records from 1989. I know this is a BIG statement since it held some of the biggest outbreaks in history but something to look at. Anyone care to add to this thesis?

2008 and 1996 look like decent matches as far as SST trends and cold in AK goes.

[Rgv20]

The GFS Ensembles still look good on a pattern change to colder weather for Texas starting early December. Oh and just for fun this is tonight's 0zGFS operational run which shows some traces of snow for my area near its end of the forecast cycle

[South Texas Storms]

lol go Rgv! Let's hope that snowfall map pans out for you guys down there!
Have you noticed that the Day 11-15 GFS Ensemble has consistently been showing a wet and cooler pattern for Texas?
Maybe there actually will be some winter precip. chances in a few weeks?

[Portastorm]

Snow in the Rio Grande Valley?! Preposterous! That NEVER happens.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm starting to see SOME similarities to 1989. I found this website the other day while looking at the latest in SST anomalies. That shows some similarities to 1989 because we are coming out of a La nina. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
Also, i read on accuweather that temperature readings in Alaska are breaking records from 1989. I know this is a BIG statement since it held some of the biggest outbreaks in history but something to look at. Anyone care to add to this thesis?

Interesting you mention December 1989. The winter of 1989-1990 was Neutral. The previous winter of 1988-1989 was La Nina. One difference is that we are in a weak La Nina.

Alaska's Brutal Cold Reaches Historical Status
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... es-his.asp

[Ntxw]

Holy turkey potato



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Fun to look at! Southern plains winter storm anyone?

[Rgv20]

The Euro is forecasting 3-6 inches of snow for central Oklahoma from Sunday to Monday Noon The ECMWF Ensemble Control Run is colder than the operational run as it has the 850mb 0c line south of Brownsville by Monday morning...It's going to be interesting to see how this unfolds in the next couple of days.