ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

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NHC_ATCF
invest_al992011.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201111201237
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011112006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011111912, , BEST, 0, 223N, 524W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011111918, , BEST, 0, 223N, 529W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011112000, , BEST, 0, 223N, 534W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011112006, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 99, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 175, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

edited by Tolakram to add the above text

That's the 40% North-central Atlantic low.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY SHIPS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Extratropical94]

Post away about the models.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

20/1145 UTC 23.0N 53.8W ST1.5 99L -- Atlantic

[jinftl]

Could this become the season's 8th hurricane?

[cycloneye]

Remains at 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[MGC]

If the shear would relax 99L should have a chance. Center is exposed currently.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Chances for development into a sub or tropical system are going down.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[expat2carib]

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[RL3AO]

So many posts. I can't keep up.

Can you tell its almost December?

[brunota2003]

Certainly is interesting to watch the numbers bounce but been more interested in Kenneth

[ozonepete]

I was a little surprised to see the red circle and 60% this morning, but I hadn't looked at the satellite loop yet. Once I did, it was easy to see why. Convection is beginning to fire over the LLC, and the overall presentation is more tropical now than it has been. From the visuals it looks like it can make a TS or STS pretty easily now.

[MGC]

Noticed on the visual loop this morning that 99L has a couple of swirls. I think the one to the south is dying out and the one closer to the convection should become the eventual circulation center. Perhaps once there is only one circulation 99L will get upgraded provided the convection persists near the center.....MGC

[bg1]

Noticed on the visual loop this morning that 99L has a couple of swirls. I think the one to the south is dying out and the one closer to the convection should become the eventual circulation center.

This quote sums up just about all the posts of this season .

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= If this area of interest develops into a sub or tropical storm,there will be a solo winner of the 2011 poll

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. RECENT SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE
THAT WINDS OF GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE EITHER SUBTROPICAL OR
FRONTAL IN NATURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[Hurricanehink]

Here's the latest from SAB:

21/1745 UTC 28.5N 51.1W EXTRATROPICAL 99L

So much for Tammy

[wxman57]

Up to 40kts in the invest max current winds.

[StormingB81]

I Think it should develop and stay a fish just because I would be correct on the Poll....lol

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

Well if it does develop into a storm and the September low being discussed on the board is upgraded post-seasonal, would the unnamed storm also count towards the poll?