EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Does anyone knows if this TC formation is a record in terms of the date or there has been other systems that have formed in that basin on a later date?

[HURAKAN]

I know hurricane Winnie formed in December of 1983

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

...RARE MID-NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A NEARLY CONSTANT
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
MEXICAN COAST HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY...AND A 1645
UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF AT
LEAST 30 KT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
NOT ALL THAT INTENSE...BUT IT IS JUST DEEP AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR
SAB AND TAFB TO PROVIDE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 280/10 KT. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER...A BROAD
BUT DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS WEST OF THE U.S./MEXICAN
COAST TO ABOUT 140W WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDING DOWN
TO 16N. EVEN THOUGH A VIGOROUS CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXPAND
WESTWARD AT THE SAME TIME. THIS SHOULD INDUCE THE DEPRESSION ON A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH A NEARLY CONSTANT FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
HWRF...WHICH SHOWS A MORE POLEWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT BE IDEAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER COOL WATERS
AND THROUGH A REGION OF DRY AIR RESULTING FROM A GAP WIND EVENT
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARDS A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY FILL IN OVER THE CIRCULATION. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS
SHOWING MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW MUCH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LGEM MODEL.

BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE
LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN
SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON
NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH
FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 10.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 10.2N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 10.9N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 11.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 11.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 12.5N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

I know hurricane Winnie formed in December of 1983

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... r_1983.jpg

You were right.They talked about it at discussion.

BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE
LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN
SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON
NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH
FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.

[HURAKAN]

I know hurricane Winnie formed in December of 1983

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... r_1983.jpg

You were right.They talked about it at discussion.

BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE
LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN
SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON
NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH
FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.

Another thing I found is that it seems there was a mistake made when Winnie was named. The "W" name for that year was Wallis, name that appears in the list for 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and will be available in 2013, and so on. The name Winnie was in the 1984 list and has been available every 6 years since!

Name list: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[Macrocane]

And the EPAC is still giving us surprises, both basins have been very weird this year and very interesting as well.

[MGC]

EPAC has awaken from is slumber as TD-13 forms....has a good shot at becoming a hurricane down the road....MGC

[CrazyC83]

Could we see a major out of this? What is the latest major ever in the EPAC?

[CrazyC83]

EP, 13, 2011112000, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1015W, 30, 1006, TD

No upgrade yet.

[HURAKAN]

Could we see a major out of this? What is the latest major ever in the EPAC?

The latest I found in the EPAC was Hurricane Xina in 1985, reached major status on October 29

[cycloneye]

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 102.1W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA NEAR THE CENTER AND AN
OUTER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE
DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO PASS NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36
HOURS...WITH A WESTWARD TURN AFTER THAT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD AGAIN WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO OCCUR. THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS. THUS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY.
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IN RESPONSE THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LGEM MODEL CALLS FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...OR HWRF.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY
120 HOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING AT THAT
TIME.

IF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE
WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 10.3N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 10.7N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 11.3N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 11.7N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 11.9N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 12.0N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
WAXING AND WANING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND NOT IN THE COLD CLOUD SHIELD. ALSO...A
20/0350Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED THAT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
HAD WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED THE PREVIOUS
OVERPASS JUST 12 HOURS EARLIER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A
CONSENSUS T2.0/30 KT CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KT BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 20N LATITUDE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD DESPITE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY ACT TO BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND
CREATE SOME MINOR STAIR-STEP MOTION IN THE TRACK. THE LATEST NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AROUND 15 KT FORECAST AFTER
THAT. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.
BY 48-72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR AND ALSO OVER COOLER SSTS. THE RESULT IS THAT SLOW
BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SHARP
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR
PULSES UP AND DOWN. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER
SUB-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFS
MODELS...AND REMAINS WELL BELOW THE HWRF AND GFDL INTENSITY
FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 10.4N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 10.9N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 11.4N 107.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 11.8N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 11.9N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 12.6N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 13.5N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[bg1]

Past 11/20, there have been, what, 5 total cyclones in the epac in over 60 years?

If these basins were teams, this possible hurricane would seem like this team is saying "We've been better, but we'll score again to symbolize our dominance".

[Extratropical94]

Still a TD in BT file:

EP, 13, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1041W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M,

[lester]

Past 11/20, there have been, what, 5 total cyclones in the epac in over 60 years?

If these basins were teams, this possible hurricane would seem like this team is saying "We've been better, but we'll score again to symbolize our dominance".

More like to symbolize another lost year to the Atlantic

- לסטר

[cycloneye]

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS
ONE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...WITH SEVERAL WEAKER BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT FROM
SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS WHICH
INDICATED WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
THIS VALUE.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT REGULATES THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C WATERS DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
AFTER THAT TIME...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
FALL BELOW 26C AFTER 96 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE
PERIOD....WHICH ALONG WITH THE COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE...AND LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED
TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PERIOD WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
WESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 96 TO 120 HOURS...THE SECOND
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. AT
THAT TIME...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT TURNS WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LEANS TOWARD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION OF A WEAKER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 10.6N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 11.1N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 11.6N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 11.7N 111.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 12.0N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 13.0N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 13.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track upgrades to TS Kenneth

EP, 13, 2011112018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1050W, 35, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

...A RARE LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 105.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD
COVERS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SHIP LAZS2...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. BASED UPON THE SHIP REPORT AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE DEPRESSION IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
INTENSIFICATION MAY BE LIMITED BY NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS.
THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING
RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NORTH WHICH COULD
ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
KENNETH WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE BASIN
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND ENTERING A REGION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM
GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE LONGER RANGE.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER FARTHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES
YIELDS A MOTION OF 290/10. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE NEW
LONGER-TERM MOTION REPRESENTS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR A
CHANGE OF HEADING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WILL
LARGELY HINGE ON THE POTENCY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUBSEQUENT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT KENNETH WILL BE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LEAN ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD DUE TO
THE CENTER RELOCATION.

KENNETH BECOMES THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE FORMED ON 4 DECEMBER 1983.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 11.5N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.3N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 12.5N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 12.5N 114.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 14.1N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Hurricane Jed]

And the surprises continue... This the first November tropical storm in the EPAC since TS Polo in 2008?

[cycloneye]

...KENNETH STRENGTHENING BUT MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MARKED BY INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING
NEAR THE CENTER AND AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CANOPY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE
OBJECTIVE ADT FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...AND THAT
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT MOST
OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS CAUGHT UP IN ITS CIRCULATION. OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE FASTEST RATES
OF INTENSIFICATION AND BRING KENNETH TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 TO
36 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE
TO A HURRICANE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW DEPICTS THIS
OCCURRING IN 36 HOURS. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REACH WATERS COOLER
THAN 26.5C AND DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT LIES AT THE LOWER END
OF THE GUIDANCE CLOSE TO THE LGEM SOLUTION. IT IS THEREFORE
POSSIBLE THAT KENNETH COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED.

THE CENTER OF KENNETH APPEARED TO JUMP OR RE-FORM TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE ESTIMATED MOTION OF 290 DEGREES AT
12 KT MAY BE STABILIZING NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS
FROM DAY 3 AND BEYOND...HOWEVER. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF SHOW A
DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...WEAKEN
KENNETH SOONER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE
ON THE STORM. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS KENNETH STRENGTHENING A
LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO
LEAN TOWARDS THE NORTHWARD-TURNING MODELS BUT NOT YET MAKE A FULL
COMMITMENT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ENDS UP NORTH OF AND A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.6N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.9N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.1N 115.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.5N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG