EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Sigh stupid me. I thought the season was over so I stopped logging in much. Accidently, I stumble upon weather.com and on the front page 'rare east pacific storm'.

If this becomes a major hurricane, then I have to say wow. Amazing epac season this year.

[cycloneye]

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY.
THE LARGE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER
THIS MORNING HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH AN EMBEDDED RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT...BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. AFTER 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID AS WESTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES AND KENNETH MOVES OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS STILL
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KENNETH
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN 2-3 DAYS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THAT TIME FRAME AS
THE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER CYCLONE SHOW A MORE POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF WHICH INITIALIZED KENNETH UNREALISTICALLY
WEAK...IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK OF A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE. SINCE
KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A DEEPER CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION.

SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.0N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.1N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 13.5N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.1N 120.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[MGC]

Kenneth continues to get better organized this afternoon. And, with little shear and ample warm water, Kenneth should continue to intensify. Not sure if the hurricane will make it to major status but should approach 100MPH. Good thing it is a fish storm, the kind I like.....MGC

[Fyzn94]

This is just phenomenal.

[Macrocane]

Looks like a 90-95 kt hurricane, if the trend continues by the next advisory Keneth will break the records for strongest November system and strongest so late for the EPAC basin.

[Chacor]

90 knots on the best track at midnight UTC.

[cycloneye]

That coincides with what SSD dvorak has at 00:00 UTC.

22/0000 UTC 12.9N 111.2W T5.0/5.0 KENNETH -- East Pacific

[bob rulz]

Wow, even a November storm is making a run for major hurricane status.

The EPac this year has been bizarre to say the least.

[Kingarabian]

Eye needs to clear out a little bit more...

[brunota2003]

Hello Kenneth...and there is the cleared out eye...Final T#s up to 4.6 now, or 79.6 knots, (CIMSS ADT), with Adjusted at 5.5 and raw at 5.6 (~100 knots).

[MGC]

Looks to me that Kenneth has been in a RI mode this evening. Eye has cleared out quiet nicely. Impressive hurricane for so late in the season.....MGC

[brunota2003]

Can we go for 100 knots please, Alex?

[CrazyC83]

What next in the EPAC, a monster in December?

[Fyzn94]

Eye needs to clear out a little bit more...

Can we go for 100 knots please, Alex?

DONE.

[CrazyC83]

EP, 13, 2011112200, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1113W, 90, 973, HU

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 NOV 2011 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 12:59:12 N Lon : 111:21:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 979.8mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 5.5 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -61.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think with the eye clearing out so nicely over the last hour, that 00 UTC estimate will be raised, and certainly not 90 knots on the advisory (if it holds together). Maybe 95 or 100 knots

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think with the eye clearing out so nicely over the last hour, that 00 UTC estimate will be raised, and certainly not 90 knots on the advisory (if it holds together). Maybe 95 or 100 knots

The cloud convection is pretty shallow despite the eye clearing out though...I'd want to see a lower cloud region temperature...

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think with the eye clearing out so nicely over the last hour, that 00 UTC estimate will be raised, and certainly not 90 knots on the advisory (if it holds together). Maybe 95 or 100 knots

The cloud convection is pretty shallow despite the eye clearing out though...I'd want to see a lower cloud region temperature...

Which is why I'm thinking they'll hold just shy and go with 95 knots.

[brunota2003]

CIMSS ADT numbers slowly inching upwards:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 NOV 2011 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 12:59:33 N Lon : 111:26:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 974.0mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.6 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +6.5C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.2 degrees

I think where exactly the Final number is on the next update (final one before the advisory) coupled with if the Adjusted and Raw are still climbing, and what the convection does, will be the deciding factor between 95 knots and 100 knots.