EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

The convection ring around the eye is slowly becoming colder. Especially on the south and south east.

[brunota2003]

Uhhh...these are NOAA ADT values (at 00 UTC the final numbers read 90 knots)

2011NOV22 013000 5.5 963.4/ +3.4 /102.0 5.5 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 6.54 -61.53 EYE 22 IR 13.00 111.46 COMBO
2011NOV22 020000 5.8 956.2/ +3.4 /109.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 8.14 -60.73 EYE 25 IR 12.91 111.55 COMBO

Source:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... E-list.txt

So, CIMSS ADT is around 100 knots (Final #s are playing catch up, still at 90 knots), this ADT is 109.8 knots...convection is increasing on the NASA/MSFC imagery (02:15 UTC image just came out).

The suspense is killing me -.-

[brunota2003]

They stuck with 90 knots

[cycloneye]

90kts

HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
0300 UTC TUE NOV 22 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 111.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

TCDEP3

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED
A DISTINCT 20-N MI WIDE EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SURROUNDED BY A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CYCLONE
ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ON
THIS ADVISORY.

SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 OR 4
DAYS...THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL BE GOVERNED BY CHANGES IN
ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH KENNETH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26.5C
ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD. AS A RESULT OF
THESE FACTORS...KENNETH PROBABLY HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MAKES IT A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER THAT TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

KENNETH HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 15N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ERODED BY
TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES ON DAYS 2 AND 3.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE
BEYOND 36 HOURS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS
AND HWRF STILL HAVE A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FASTER
AND MOVES IT QUICKLY WESTWARD IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A SCENARIO BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES GIVEN
THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...AND ENDS UP A
LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THOSE
TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.0N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Hurricane Jed]

suspense is killing me too Its like having to wait til Christmas morning to unwrap your presents.

[brunota2003]

They went with 90 knots because Dvorak, which was 2 hours ago and before the eye appeared, was at T5.0, despite the ADT continuing to climb since then, and the presentation improving? Oh well, my forecast still validates, but was hoping for closer to 95 at least.

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011

KENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED
A DISTINCT 20-N MI WIDE EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SURROUNDED BY A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CYCLONE
ALSO HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ON
THIS ADVISORY.

SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 OR 4
DAYS...THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL BE GOVERNED BY CHANGES IN
ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH KENNETH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26.5C
ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD. AS A RESULT OF
THESE FACTORS...KENNETH PROBABLY HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION...AND NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MAKES IT A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AFTER THAT TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

KENNETH HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 15N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ERODED BY
TWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES ON DAYS 2 AND 3.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THAT PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE
BEYOND 36 HOURS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS
AND HWRF STILL HAVE A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FASTER
AND MOVES IT QUICKLY WESTWARD IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A SCENARIO BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES GIVEN
THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...AND ENDS UP A
LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THIS IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THOSE
TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.0N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.0N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.1N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.4N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Hurricane Jed]

Nonetheless impressive intensification in a short amount of time. Can't wait to see how strong it is at the next update.

[brunota2003]

2345 UTC:



0215 UTC:

[brunota2003]

Nonetheless impressive intensification in a short amount of time. Can't wait to see how strong it is at the next update.

Not disagreeing with that...a 45 knot increase in 24 hours is nothing to sneeze at, and easily meets the criteria for rapid intensification (by 15 knots).

[Macrocane]

Seems too conservative to me, in any case it would be one of the best looking category 2 I've seen

[Kingarabian]

Isn't forecaster Berg a bit conservative, no?

[Kingarabian]

I was going to agree with the NHC forecast until I saw this:


Ah cmon! This has to be a major hurricane... Look at that eye.

[Macrocane]

They will have to issue a special advisory if it keeps strengthening.

[Hurricane Jed]

The way it looks on satellite and the way it is strengthening you'd think Kenneth was a mid-September storm.

[Kingarabian]

Well, as the case with this years Epac Hurricanes, Kenneth is losing size but keeping that nice eye.
Cons:
ADT does bad with small storms.

Pros:
Better chance for it to hold on through cold water if it decides to go annular.

My 2 cents.

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe its going annular. That eye is too perfect for a category 2 unless it is in the middle of a buzzsaw.

[Extratropical94]

BT at 95 knots, seems they don't want a major.

[Kingarabian]

They should go with a major hurricane as ring of deep convection is now wrapping around the eye.

[Kingarabian]

Hell, ADT raw numbers are almost at 7.0.

[Chacor]

Up to 110 kt from NHC, cat 4 now forecast.