EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

What qualifies a storm to be a cat 5? Structure wise that is.

[Extratropical94]

He'd have to tighten up a bit and cloud tops surrounding the eye would have to cool down below -80C
Currently they are at about -68 to -71 degrees

[Fyzn94]

I honestly cannot recall being able to track a major EPAC hurricane around American Thanksgiving. WHAT A BEAST!!!

[CrazyC83]

Just be glad that storm is harming no one and that it isn't sitting in the Gulf of Mexico right now!

[Sanibel]

I wonder if we are seeing evidence of season expansion?

[Ntxw]

Man, everything in the EPAC that spins up seems to go major. Gorgeous November storm. It is a good thing there isn't many landmasses in this basin or this would be a marker season for them. All hail EPAC 2011!

[CrazyC83]

Is the EPAC capable of anything in December? What is the L name on their list?

[cycloneye]

Is the EPAC capable of anything in December? What is the L name on their list?

Lidia.

[CrazyC83]

22/1800 UTC 12.6N 114.4W T6.0/6.5 KENNETH -- East Pacific

Appears to have peaked. My guess, based on ADT estimates, is that it peaked at 130 kt.

[Chacor]

ATCF is showing 125 kt for 18 Zulu.

[Crostorm]

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/imageoftheday.php

[bg1]

Lol, he's actually as strong as (if not stronger than) the most intense storm of this year's La Nina Atlantic season.
Kenneth: 145 mph - 943 mbar
Ophelia: 140 mph - 940 mbar
Katia: 135 mph - 946 mbar

Same thing happened last year with unusually early Cat 5 cane Celia.
She beat every storm in the Atlantic although her basin was unfavorable and she formed veery early in the season.

And 2010 was also a La Nina.

Imagine if this was a neutral year, the year would probably be something like 24/19/11. Perhaps the oscillation is becoming less favorable for the Atlantic and more for the Pacific. Can you imagine the Atlantic going 7/6/5 in an El Nino right now? This is about the equivalent of this epac season.

[Kingarabian]

I think they will hold the intensity for this update. May have peaked.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

KENNETH IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE VERY CLEAR 20 N MI WIDE EYE IS STILL
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 125 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. IN ABOUT
2 DAYS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C
AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND KENNETH IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11 KT.
KENNETH SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS PRIMARILY
DUE TO HOW DEEP VERTICALLY THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE. THE
HWRF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 24-48 HOURS
WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP KENNETH ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND
IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.6N 114.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.8N 116.3W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.4N 118.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.1N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 14.7N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.5N 123.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 15.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Kingarabian]

His eye is starting to take on a similar look of 2005's Isabela's eye.

Very nice looking buzzsaw Hurricane.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Less is more has quite OFFICIALLY flown out of the EPAC building in 2011. Mental.

[brunota2003]

Well, the eye contracted...just not in the way you want to see if you want a run at 150 mph or higher The eye is pretty much gone.

[Kingarabian]

Ewrc?

[Cranica]

Ewrc?

Maybe, but it won't have time to complete. Kenneth's entering much more hostile conditions and almost certainly won't recover.

[MGC]

EWRC? Doubt it. Me thinks that Kenneth is starting to fall apart as fast as he intensified yesterday....MGC