EPAC: KENNETH - Post-Tropical

[Macrocane]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230243
TCDEP3

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

KENNETH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPENING UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE ONSET OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHOWN IN
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY STEERING KENNETH. IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY WITH A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSE
KENNETH TO TURN WESTWARD. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
LIKELY TO ALLOW KENNETH OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36
HOURS...THEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON AN OVERALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK
IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE KENNETH TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY
72 HR AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THESE THINGS COULD HAPPEN SOONER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 12.8N 117.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 14.4N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 14.8N 121.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 15.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Fyzn94]

It looks like this thing might fall apart just as fast as it came together.

[Hurricanehink]

Just as the other Pacific hurricanes intensified rather quickly, so did they rapidly fall apart.

[Epsilon_Fan]

This sure doesn't look like a cat 4 anymore... it's gonna barely be clinging to it's hurricane status by morning. He was good looking for a while though

[Chickenzilla]

Convection is still healthy.Not very deep,but healthy.
Eyewall eroded on the western side.
This storm is probably a weak Category 2 hurricane.

[WeatherGuesser]

Thing about these is that they're nice to look at and nice for those that study them, but they don't really bother anybody other than ships.

Some turn back to Mexico, but none bother California and only a few ever make it to Hawaii.

[brunota2003]

It's nice because the hurricane is in it's natural environment...no interference from land, just pure wilderness. Just like animals (wolves - Winter Study on Isle Royale), much better to study in the open environment...especially rapid intensification.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT NOAA-18 AMSU-B
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BOTH
SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS INDUCED A MORE
ASYMMETRIC PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. AS A RESULT...A
COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT. WEAKENING OF KENNETH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS AND
MOVES WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR AND DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...SIMILAR TO
THE VARIABLE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...275/8.
KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HR CAUSING KENNETH TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
BEYOND THE 48 HR PERIOD...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH OR
TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 12.6N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.8N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 121.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.6N 124.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 16.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[Kingarabian]

Holding on pretty well for a category 2.

[Kingarabian]

Shear eating it.

[cycloneye]

Going downhill like a rock.


TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. KENNETH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
AND COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.
HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

KENNETH HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
285/10. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 13.2N 118.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 13.7N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.6N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Macrocane]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240235
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KENNETH CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...ALTHOUGH AT
A SLOWER PACE THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY. A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/I
OVERPASS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BY WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB AND THE WEAKER
AMSU/SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WESTWARD TURN AS
THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER WITH THE
FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW TRACK FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH ARE LIKELY TO TURN
NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 13.5N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.0N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 14.7N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 14.9N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 15.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Macrocane]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240835
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011

MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN NOR THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCT PASS SUGGESTS
THAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WEAKENING.

KENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 13.8N 120.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.3N 121.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 14.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Kingarabian]

I would like to say thank you Kenneth. Thank you for giving us something to track while the season winders down.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011


IT IS HARD TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES
THIS MORNING. A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL DETACHED
FROM A FEW PATCHES OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THIS WEAKENING
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
A DAY OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW
INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS...STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.4N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 13.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory.


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011

...KENNETH BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 126.2W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.2 WEST.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW OF KENNETH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KENNETH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN