Henri in the making? Another system for GOM

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cycloneye
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Henri in the making? Another system for GOM

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:30 am

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

Development is possible in a couple of days.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Sep 01, 2003 2:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby Stephanie » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:35 am

The W. Caribbean satelite looks very interesting....
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:38 am

Yes indeed but to have development it has to form a LLC and that is what we have to look for in those sat pics.Maybe near the honduran coast there may be some twist in the clouds.
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#4 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:09 am

Luis , yes the Caribbean looks interesting. Both the ETA and the GFS are showing Gulf Development.:):):)
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#5 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:16 am

Recon scheduled for tomorrow...18z
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#6 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:17 am

NOUS42 KNHC 011600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 01 SEPTEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEP 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/2100Z A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1830Z C. 03/0945Z
D. 22.5N 88.0W D. 26.0N 88.5W
E. 02/2000Z TO 03/0330Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. HURRICANE FABIAN
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0510A FABIAN B. AFXXX 0610A FABIAN
C. 02/1615Z C. 02/0415Z
D. 20.5N 61.0W D. 21.8N 62.8W
E. 02/1700Z TO 02/2100Z E. 02/0500Z TO 02/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. A TWO SHIP P-3 RESEARCH MISSION.
A PROBABLE BUOY DROP AHEAD OF THE STORM.
5. REMARKS: TWO P-3 WILL DO A 9 HOUR RESEARCH MSSION INTO FABIAN
DEPARTING TISX AT 02/1400Z.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:17 am

But if this develops ticka and the texans members wont see this one as it is going to be an central to east GOM event.
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Agreed Central/ E GOM Threat

#8 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:21 am

The Recon flight for tomorrow is E of 90W
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#9 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:22 am

Luis.. I agree this looks to be a central and Eastern Gulf threat. In todays local paper it was mentioned how far above normal we are in West Central Florida and the last thing we need is a Tropical System. It looks to be an interesting week:):)
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:28 am

This system could be part of the longwave pattern and just another factor which keeps the EC safe from Fabian.

SF
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:30 am

Agreed on that account SF.
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#12 Postby ameriwx2003 » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:34 am

Sf... Agreed about that ALSO:):)
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#13 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:37 am

Quite likely SF, this would help to amplify the trough over the east and steer Faby off into the Atlantic.
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Steve Cosby
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CYCLONE designation

#14 Postby Steve Cosby » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:39 am

Did you guys notice the second set of flights is for "CYCLONE" and not "INVEST"? More indication the thing is expected to develop.
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#15 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:42 am

We will just have to wait and see how fast this new system moves and what other factors happen.

I heard its suppose to move to the BOC - but I could be wrong. Storms showed one model moving it to the Texas coast - we will just have to wait and see.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:45 am

Agree ticka until a well defined LLC forms about future movement we have to wait because many factors can come in and be players on intensity and track of the system.
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#17 Postby wrkh99 » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:50 am

Trouble


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#18 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:55 am

Okay James - what are ur thoughts on this system - what is it going to do?

Just curious.
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#19 Postby wrkh99 » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:58 am

I'm going to wait untill we have a good center location before I go out on a limb :)
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#20 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Sep 01, 2003 12:21 pm

Looks like there may be a mid level or low level circulation forming around 18N 82.5W. Does anyone else see this?
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