Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated up this afternoon for Guadeloupe, Martinica and... the Northern Leewards due to the rainy episode expected to begin tonight but to stall during the next 24-72H.

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Here is a loop...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
928 PM AST SAT NOV 26 2011

.UPDATE...HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER LAND WITH SEVERAL
NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS...ON THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO RICO SHOWERS
ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AND ARE
DRIFTING IN OVER LAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
SAINT CROIX AND LIGHTER RAIN WAS NOTED AROUND CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOSING STRENGTH FOR THE
MOST PART EVEN OVER WATER AND TOPS ARE BELOW 25 KFT EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY
...AND DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS INFERRED FROM GFS SOLUTION AT
250 MB. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWS THAT THE DIVERGENCE PATTERN PASSING
THROUGH NOW WILL BE THE BEST OF MANY DAYS TO COME...HENCE
TOMORROWS ACTIVITY WILL BE DUE MORE TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH. MAP OF 700 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ALSO SHOWS
BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION NEAR SAINT CROIX BUT MOSTLY OVER THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS UNTIL ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH MOISTURE IN TOW MID WEEK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT NIGHT TIME CONVECTION EVEN OVER LOCAL WATERS AND
HENCE HAVE REDUCED DESCRIPTIVE NARRATIVE IN ZONES FROM WIDESPREAD
TO OCCASIONAL...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL VERY LIKELY OVER MANY AREAS
ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF ISLANDS AND MOUNTAINS.

WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING IN VERY GOOD MOISTURE TO SAINT CROIX...THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING AREAS AND WATERS. NEXT
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS LIKELY TO BE AFTER TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCRG CLOUDINESS AND DETERIORATING WX CONDS ARE FCST ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA DURG NEXT 24-48 HRS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP INCR CHANCES FOR
SCT-NUM SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BTW THE NORTHERN LEEWARD AND THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...VFR COND ARE EXPECTED OVER
PR TAFS SITES WHILE AT THE USVI TAFS SITES AND TNCM/TKPK...
MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. 27/00Z JSJ RAOB SHOWS WNDS
BLO FL200 AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...MAINLY E FM SFC TO 5
KFT...BECOMING MAINLY N FM 5-15 KFT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Here is the latest update of the situation unfolding for today here in PR and VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST SUN NOV 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL TROF NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
AWAY MID WEEK. INVERTED SFC TROF BETWEEN THE USVI AND BVI WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS
ALONG IT AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
80+KT JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN 24-HR PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER FOR
NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI/LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE THE 00Z GLOBAL
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW...WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE STILL POSES A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. I WAS TEMPTED
WITH THE IDEA OF REDUCING THE AREAL CVRG OF THE FFA TO JUST
NORTHEAST PR...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI BASED ON THE 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE 00Z HI-RES PR3KM NAM RUN BUT THE 03Z SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) STILL INDICATES A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS
FARTHER INLAND. ALL DEPENDS ON HOW FAR WEST THE INVERTED TROF AXIS
MOVES IN. MY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE USVI AND FAR NORTHEAST PR
WILL EXPERIENCE SIG RAINS BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
TROF AXIS.

TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE USVI BY TUE WITH DRY SLOT
WORKING INTO THE USVI BY 00Z TUE. XPC A SIG IMPROVEMENT TO THE
WEATHER FOR TUE AND THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND DETERIORATING WX CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN +RA/+TSRA LIKELY AT TJSJ/USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 8 FT AT BUOY 41043 THIS MORNING. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN NORTH SWELLS. SCA ALREADY
IN EFFECT BUT BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE NMRS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ESPECIALLY ATLC WATERS/CARIBBEAN WATERS SURROUNDING USVI AND
ANEGADA PASSAGE TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 74 / 70 60 40 30
STT 85 78 83 78 / 80 80 70 40

[msbee]

[Gustywind]

Since this morning numerous episodes of strong showers are spreading on Guadeloupe. Looks wet weather conditions are continuing here. We have a "time out" lol ( NBA should begin Cycloneye ) for now but the weather is grey, overcast and moist.

[Gustywind]

What's up in the Northern Leewards Barbarba and in PR Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

What's up in the Northern Leewards Barbarba and in PR Cycloneye?

Is all part of the surface trough combining with the upper trough creating all this mess.

[cycloneye]

Barbara and Patti,it was really pouring there at 11:19 AM.

[Gustywind]

[/color]

What's up in the Northern Leewards Barbarba and in PR Cycloneye?

Is all part of the surface trough combining with the upper trough creating all this mess.

Thanks for this info Cycloneye. Continue to keep us informed. Be safe and dry. I will keep you informed if i've more. Looks like numerous areas are experiencing minor floodings.

[Macrocane]

The cold minimum temperatures persist in the northern part of Central America, the difference with previous days is that yesterday several places had warmer than normal highs as the cold surge ended before sunrise. Today a new cold surge is beggining and may be one of the strongest of the season and it seems that the whole week will be cold as at least 2 mor ehigh pressures are expected to reinforce the cold air by mid week and next weekend These are yesterday temperatures:

-Near normal lows were registered in Belize and Nicaragua. Colder than normal lows occurred in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. Panama and Costa Rica had above normal lows.
-Belize and Panama experienced near normal highs, the rest of the region had warmer than normal.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 21°C (70°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.0°C (50.0°F) Coldest since March 23
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 16°C (61°F) Coldest since October 25
San Salvador, El Salvador 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 7.4°C (45.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 8°C (46°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.0°C (55.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.6°C (70.9°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.5°C (81.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.6°C (56.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.7°C (71.1°F)

[Macrocane]

The observations from last cold surge can be found here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2206502#p2206502

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from the discussion by TPC at 1 PM EST.

WHILE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 200 NM
RADIUS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER BOTH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING. MOIST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[msbee]

hi everyone
rainy day here in St. Maarten. It was raining very heavily this morning...about the time Luis posted the webcam picture.
I think we had around 2 inches of rain. The roads became flooded at the time.
Then it stopped and was just drizzling. The roads have drained off a little bit.
Now it just started raining steadily here again. and I can hear thunder.
It's a good day to stay home and read a good book.
Hope all is well in the other islands especially with Luis and Gusty.

Barbara

[Jimsot]

We have had 6 inches of rain and counting here on the south east coast of Anguilla since around 10:30 am today. The bucket brigade has been activated! Still have moderate rain falling. This is a new record for us since we moved in on January 10th 2006 for a single storm. As I am writing it is beginning to rain very hard again. We DO NOT need anymore.

[Macrocane]

6 inches in such a small period of time is very dangerous, be safe and dry everyone.

Take a look a the cold front descending through the Gulf of Mexico on its way to Central America, it looks impressive.

[cycloneye]

We have had 6 inches of rain and counting here on the south east coast of Anguilla since around 10:30 am today. The bucket brigade has been activated! Still have moderate rain falling. This is a new record for us since we moved in on January 10th 2006 for a single storm. As I am writing it is beginning to rain very hard again. We DO NOT need anymore.

That is a lot in a relativly short period of time. Stay safe and when you can,post what is going on there.

[Jimsot]

We have had 6 inches of rain and counting here on the south east coast of Anguilla since around 10:30 am today. The bucket brigade has been activated! Still have moderate rain falling. This is a new record for us since we moved in on January 10th 2006 for a single storm. As I am writing it is beginning to rain very hard again. We DO NOT need anymore.

That is a lot in a relativly short period of time. Stay safe and when you can,post what is going on there.

We just checked the rain gage again and have had another four inches, so we are up to ten inches now. Our utility room is beginning to flood but everything is pretty high up so hopefully we will be OK. Lots of mopping as you can imagine. Just had a neighbor call and her cistern hatch was being pushed up. I told here to take it off to relieve the pressure. There will likely be many reports of flooding if these slow moving storms keep dropping rain. Still raining VERY HARD.

[Gustywind]

Glad to see all these friends today, that's wonderfull . Be safe and dry all. Showers are back this afternoon in Guadeloupe. Wind is picking a bit with some nice gusts.
Gustywind