Western Caribbean

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:25 am

That may be the area the models..and the Hazardous weather outlook..I posted in another thread are talking about!!! :o

#3 Postby **BreinLa** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:31 am

Oh Boy Here we Go again!!!!!!

bkhusky2 · #4 Postby **bkhusky2** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:39 am

Looks like this wave will probably influence my weather in a few days, possibly heavy rain. Which I need the rain here, but areas just south of here do not.

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:44 am

Noting a definite mid-level swirl in the area immediately off the coast of Honduras and Belize moving W to WNW slowly. This will take it over the S portion of the Yucatan and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. The other possibility that this portion of the area will move into the EPAC.

No matter what I'm watching this one too!!! Current progs for our area are for a rainy week and we sure have started out on the right foot for that!! :roll:

And now that I have seen some models on this one, I will still be watching it. Right now the movement, at least of the noted swirl is still WNW.

#6 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:53 am

Pretty impressive blob if you ask me!

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:22 am

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:26 am

Tip · #9 Postby **Tip** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:30 am

Noticing some clockwise rotation on the eastern fringe cloud tops which may indicate that there is high pressure over it.

weatherlover427 · #10 Postby **weatherlover427** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:32 am

That's quite a blob! :o And thanks for posting images instead of links, that helps my crappy browser a lot!

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:33 am

TWO

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea this morning. Heavy rains are expected to spread
northwestward across the Yucatan and western Cuba into the Gulf of
Mexico...and slow development of this system is possible over the
next day or two.

galvbay · #12 Postby **galvbay** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:39 am

Chad...that sat pic is great, thanks. The two systems look like two angry eyes! I guess the season is going to be in full gear the next couple of weeks. Thanks to everyone at Storm2k for making this the best 'Cane Site' on the web. galvbay

wrkh99 · #13 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:49 am

Great anouther storm For Ticka and Texas

ameriwx2003 · #14 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 10:59 am

Wrkh99 Hmmmm.. I think Texas will sit this one out:):). My guess is central and probably Eastern Gulf. Lets see:):):)

ameriwx2003 · #15 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:03 am

The latest GFS is joining the ETA on Gulf development.

:)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

#16 Postby **drezee** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:13 am

WE have a player

wrkh99 · #17 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:51 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html\

Watch out NO to Texas

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:58 am

This one is starting to look like it's getting its act together. I would say Texas to the Florida panhandle need to watch this very closely.

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 11:58 am

wrkh99 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html\

Watch out NO to Texas

AND FLORIDA!!! :lol:

THROUGH MID WEEK AND INTERESTING SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT. AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT THE ETA AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE INDICATING. THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ON TO CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, ACTUALLY IT STRETCHES FROM GRAND BAHAMA AND THE STRAITS
SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO COSTA RICA. THIS CONVECTION IS VERY
DISORGANIZED, BUT STILL THE MODELS LATCH ON TO IT AND TAKE IT
NORTHWEST. IN FACT THE GFS AND ETA TAKE A VORT MAX THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT
WEAKER WITH THIS THAN THE 18Z RUNS, BUT ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH
THE EXISTENCE AND MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE. AT 200 MB BOTH MODELS
FORM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE AREA CENTERED ON THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS/JAMAICA REGION LATER TODAY. THE MODELS TAKE THE UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH STARTS TO
DIG SOUTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT IS
STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH, BUT IT WILL PLAY A PART IN
INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE OVER THE STATE. THE VORT MAX AND
CORRESPONDING WEAK SURFACE LOW BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. FOR NOW I WILL PLAY IT WITH JUST A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO (MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION) POPS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT I AM A LITTLE WORRIED WITH WATER LEVELS ALREADY VERY
HIGH AND THE GROUND SATURATED THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK.

CocoaBill · #20 Postby **CocoaBill** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 12:03 pm

Does anyone have a link to the models that shows the Caribbean feature moving into the GOM?

Western Caribbean

Western Caribbean

Two Angry Eyes

MOdel link

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