Arabian Sea: DEEP DEPRESSION ARB 1104 / JTWC TC 05A

[cycloneye]

WTIO21 PGTW 250800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.1N 79.3E TO 10.4N 72.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
78.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N
79.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 78.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP PERIPHERAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGING NORTHERLIES INTO WESTERLIES. A 250431Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATES 25 KNOT EASTERLIES POLEWARD OF 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES NEAR
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250253Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH A LARGE, SOMEWHAT LINEAR, CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC,
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW, AND ACTIVE PHASE OF
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IN THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[Chacor]

This is NIO (Arabian Sea), not SIO.

[cycloneye]

This is NIO (Arabian Sea), not SIO.

Thank you for the clarification.

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS really develops this near the coast, could cuase some flooding along the west coast of India, defiantly some beach erosion going on. Any one have any obs out of the maldives though?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 12&set=All

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is now TC 05B..

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... io0511.gif

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just put a video update together on this tropical..

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyP6fWC7vg4[/youtube]

[P.K.]

This Depression is now numbered ARB 1104.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-11-2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 26 NOVEMBER, 2011 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 26 NOVEMBER, 2011 (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 26TH NOVEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 7.50N AND LONGITUDE 76.5.0E, ABOUT 120 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THIRUVANANTHAPURAM (KERALA), 400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINICOY (LAKSHADEEP ISLAND), 400 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO (SRI LANKA) AND 500 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE (MALDIVES). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HRS.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE MERGED INTO EACH OTHER AND THE CONVECTION HAS ORGANISED AND DEEPENED DURING PAST 24 HOURS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -850C.ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT 6.50N TO 10.00N AND LONG 71.00E TO 76.00E AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EXTREME SOUTH TAMIL NADU, SOUTH KERALA AND REST SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, MALDIVES AND AKSHADWEEP AREA.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA. THE SHIP (POSITION NEAR 7.50N AND 75.50E) REPORTED MSLP OF 1002.8 HPA WITH WIND OF 23 KNOTS. THE 24 HRS PRESSURE TENDENCY IS ABOUT 3 HPA OVER KERALA AND LAKSHADEEP AREA.


REMARK:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. AS PER THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, IT WOULD LIE OVER THE SAME PHASE OR PHASE 3 DURING NEXT 3-4 DAYS. PHASE 2 AND 3 ARE FAVOURABLE FOR GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 280-290C. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS (70-80 KJ/CM2) OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND LESS THAN 40 KJ/CM2 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTH ARABIAN SEA. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS FAVOURABLE AS IT IS LOW TO MODERATE (BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS). THERE IS NEGATIVE (05-10 KNOTS) 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 140N IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS LAKSHADWEEP AREA DURING NEXT 48 HRS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM UPTO CYCLONIC STORM INTENSITY AND NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT IS PREDICTED FOR INITIAL PERIOD BASED ON THE PREVAILING MIDDLE AND UPPER AIR STEERING CIRCULATION FEATURES.

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 8.3N 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 75.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 9.6N 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 11.5N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.0N 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.4N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.5N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.7N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6N 75.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BECOMES PARTLY EXPOSED. HOWEVER, A 260442Z TRMM SERIES SHOWS
CONTINUED GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP
CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM CORE. THE LATEST AMSUB RADIAL CROSS
SECTION ALSO VERIFIES THE CLEAR PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-LEVEL
ANOMALY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TC 05A IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DVORAK ASSESSMENTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND AFLOAT AND ASHORE SURFACE REPORTS NEAR THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A LIES
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE
IS, HOWEVER, SOME VISIBLE IMPINGEMENT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 05A IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, UNTIL IT
IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER
THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. RELATIVELY DRY NORTHEASTERLIES FLOWING
INTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE COUPLED WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ACT AS IMPEDIMENTS TO INTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE THE STORM CROSSES 20 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE. AN ADDITIONAL DRAG ON INTENSIFICATION WILL BE A
STEADY DECREASE IN ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES AND WILL FALL TO A MINIMALLY
FAVORABLE 28 DEGREES NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA
WITH RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING TC 05A
WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KNOTS, AND MAKE PEAK INTENSITY
JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 8.7N 74.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 74.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 10.5N 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.9N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.0N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.5N 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.9N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM STRUGGLING AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NEW CONVECTION IS CONSISTENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
THE NEW CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND A 261119Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LATEST
AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTION ALSO VERIFIES THE PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-
LEVEL ANOMALY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE TC 05A IS
BRINGING ITS MOISTURE PACKAGE ALONG AND SATURATING THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS WEIGHTED
TOWARDS A 260410Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
DESPITE THE SHEAR, THERE IS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TC 05A IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE STEADILY OVER THE THREE DAYS, UNTIL IT IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A REGION OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05A WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR
TO CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS, NEAR TAU 96 AND 20 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. ONCE TC 05A ROUNDS THE RIDGE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
TRACK ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WITH
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING THAT
TC 05A WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KNOTS, AND WILL REACH
PEAK INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
//

[P.K.]

ARB 04/2011/03 Dated: 26.11. 2011

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST



Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.


The depression over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadweep area moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 26th November 2011 over Lakshadweep area and adjoining Maldives and Comorin area near latitude 8.50N and longitude 75.0.0E, about 220 km west of Thiruvananthapuram (K erala), 210 km east-northeast of Minicoy (Lakshadweep Island), 550 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives). The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression and subsequently into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards during next 72 hrs.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Lakshadweep Islands during next 36 hrs and isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and south Karnataka during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to prevail along and off Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 36 hrs and south Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts during next 12 hrs,. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 36 hrs and south Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts during next 12 hrs.

Damage expected over Lakshadweep Islands: Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.

Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during next 12 hrs and Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 36 hours.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 27th November, 2011

[HurricaneBill]

The next name on the list is "Thane".

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 070 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.0N 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.6N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.8N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6N 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.6N 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 72.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF COCHIN,
INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), CAUSING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, NEW
CONVECTION IS CONSISTENTLY RE-DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC. A 262116
AMSU IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC HAS
BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED AND LESS INTENSE, HOWEVER A PARTIAL SSMI PASS
OF AT 262357 STILL SHOWS BANDING STRUCTURES WITH A CONVECTIVE CORE
TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE VWS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON THE 262330Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND A 261655Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS NOW ABOUT 7 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD.
THE VWS NOTED ABOVE REMAINS STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE
VWS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE SHEAR, THERE IS
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE ANTICYCLONE
AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS, UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OVER SAUDI ARABIA AT WHICH POINT IT IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
SCENARIO, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY AT THE LATER TAUS. THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST, WITH SOME CREDENCE GIVEN TO EUROPEAN MODELS THAT DISSIPATE
THE STORM PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK
REMAIN HIGH, BETWEEN 28-29 DEGREES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, WHICH FORECAST A
PEAK IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS, NEAR TAU 48,
AFTER WHICH INCREASED VWS WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//

[cycloneye]

WTIO31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.8N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.9N 68.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.9N 67.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.8N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.9N 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.9N 61.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTHWEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS STILL BEING SHEARED BY SOUTHEASTERLIES ALOFT, CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 05A UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM BUT ALSO SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE STORM.
THE ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA
AND WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EASE AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE REDUCED SHEAR
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. BEYOND 19
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.
NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATE THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO
CREST THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PAKISTAN AS A LOW-GRADE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BUT GFDN, ECMWF, AND EGRR TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
ARABIAN SEA. LONG RANGE PROGS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WILL
MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BUT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OVER
WATER NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

[Chickenzilla]

It has got really deep convection.
Older IR shot(about 6h old)


Newest IR shot


Why IMD won't name it?

[Extratropical94]

Because they are the IMD!

By the way, it is now a deep depression which in IMD's language can mean anything from a low to a cat 1

[Chickenzilla]

Convection being sheared apart.
Surely a remnant low now.
Older image(older than 6 hours)


Newest image


IMD had its chance.