Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

Still think we might see something in the next 1-2 weeks. Models are still wobbling a bit, and the cold looks like it will stay. Just need to squeeze out a little something in the cold.

[natlib]

Larry Cosgrove quote from his facebook page:

If the ridge was over Florida and Georgia (like it was earlier in the month), then the winter forecasts (and Deep South frozen precipitation chances) might well be doomed. NOT the case; I am liking the pattern, which ultimately will allow for Rex blocking in BC and Davis Strait ridge signals as well.

I take this statement as Larry's testimony that there will be a winter in our neck of the woods this year.

[vbhoutex]

Larry Cosgrove quote from his facebook page:

If the ridge was over Florida and Georgia (like it was earlier in the month), then the winter forecasts (and Deep South frozen precipitation chances) might well be doomed. NOT the case; I am liking the pattern, which ultimately will allow for Rex blocking in BC and Davis Strait ridge signals as well.

I take this statement as Larry's testimony that there will be a winter in our neck of the woods this year.

That is a pattern that would suggest that for sure. I haven't known Larry to be too far off on his forecasts this year and now he is based in Houston. SE TX is relatively hard to forecast and Larry has done pretty well from what I have seen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah ill never forget, he was pretty much the only one who called out snowstorm a bust last year even up to the day before :/

[Portastorm]

Interesting developments in the 12z runs. The GFS came in colder (for Texas) for early next week than the 0z run and the Euro is taking on more of a GFS look as it shears out some of the upper low over the desert SW. Earlier Euro runs didn't do that.

Hmmm ....

[aggiecutter]

EURO Day 10: West coast ridge-blocking getting close to Greenland, with cold air coming down the
plains. Looking pretty good.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 1112912!!/

[aggiecutter]

Just saw where Bastardi tweeted: "Strong shot down the plains next week."

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Interesting developments in the 12z runs. The GFS came in colder (for Texas) for early next week than the 0z run and the Euro is taking on more of a GFS look as it shears out some of the upper low over the desert SW. Earlier Euro runs didn't do that.

Hmmm ....

Does that mean you've taken the kicking shoes out of moth balls?

[iorange55]

18Z coming out now. Through 45hrs showing the cold starting to drive down and the energy back in southwestern Arizona.

This runs looks a bit colder so far, like the 12z.

[Portastorm]

Interesting developments in the 12z runs. The GFS came in colder (for Texas) for early next week than the 0z run and the Euro is taking on more of a GFS look as it shears out some of the upper low over the desert SW. Earlier Euro runs didn't do that.

Hmmm ....

Does that mean you've taken the kicking shoes out of moth balls?

Heh, heh ... ... oh, I keep those cleats in the hall closet in case Lucy comes calling. But I'm nowhere close to even getting up off the coach and going in there to look for them. Maybe later this week if trends continue.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville Afternoon Discussion regarding the weekend into early next week.

THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT (NAM
NOTWITHSTANDING) IN VEERING WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP SPEEDS AGAIN...WITH PLENTY OF MIXED LAYER MOISTURE TO
KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AROUND AND RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...ATMOSPHERIC WARMING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 80 FOR MOST.

THE OUTLYING NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL WAVE IN BAJA WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY EAST AND ACTUALLY PUSH AN INITIAL SURGE OF MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR TO AT LEAST SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT BUYING THIS FOR
NOW AS ALL OTHER MODELS TAKE THIS WAVE AND FLATTEN IT IN THE
WESTERLIES WHILE LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER WAVE...ON THE MAP NOW APPROACHING THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS...DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY LATE SATURDAY.
STILL...SOMETHING TO WATCH IF ONLY FOR THE STRENGTH OF SHALLOW
COOL AIR MASSES PLUNGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS GET EVEN TOUGHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS...WHICH
DID VERY WELL LAST WEEK UP TO SIX DAYS OUT IN FORECASTING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS INCREDIBLY DRY SURGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IMPRESSIVE SOUTHEAST U.S. CUTOFF CYCLONE...HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SLAMMING A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR THROUGH ALL
OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS ARE DELAYED...HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK UNTIL EARLY MONDAY BASED ON PIECE(S) OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. TROUGH HANGING UP ALONG THE MEXICO/ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA BORDER
WITH A LESSER PUSH OF WESTERLIES VS. SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO TEXAS.
THE CANADIAN LEANS TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE FRONT PASSING LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

SO...HOW TO PLAY THE FORECAST? WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND
PREDICT A LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE
RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER VALLEY COAST. WHILE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE TIMING...THE IDEA OF A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE FALL IN 2
TO 5 HOURS IS PLAUSIBLE AND SUGGESTED BY THE GFS RAW 2M TEMPS. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE MORNING HIGHS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE RANCHES
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A BRIEF POKE
TO AROUND 80 IN THE BROWNSVILLE/HARLINGEN AREA BEFORE THEY TOO
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HANDLE WITH CARE...A FASTER
SOLUTION WILL MAKE SUNDAY DOWNRIGHT CHILLY IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
CONVERSELY...A SLOWER SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE RANCHLANDS WARM AND
RATHER HUMID RATHER THAN WINTER LIKE BY THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON THIS SOLUTION...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE STEELY
GRAY AND BRISK WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HAVE GONE
FOR OBLIGATORY LOW CHANCE AND CAN ADJUST AMOUNTS AND QPF LATER AS
THE SITUATION EVOLVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. SHOULD
SEE LIFTING CEILINGS AND PERHAPS A PEEK OF SUNSHINE OUT WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAW GFS 2M TEMPS HOLD IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE VALUES VERIFY. SUCH IS
COMMON AND EXPECTED THIS WINTER A FEW TIMES...THIS EVENT BEING
JUST IN THE TIME FRAME FOR THE FIRST "MOIST" FRONT OF WINTER.

BASED ON EXPERIENCE AND HISTORY...NOT TO MENTION GUIDANCE TENDENCY
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WELL OUT IN TIME...HAVE UNDERCUT
HIGHS BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES MONDAY...AND TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY 55 TO 60 TUESDAY AFTER A COLD START WITH LOWS
NOT TOO FAR ABOVE FREEZING.

WELCOME TO METEOROLOGICAL `WINTER` IN THE VALLEY...WHEN
TEMPERATURES CAN SWING FROM THE 80S TO THE 40S AND ONE MUST KEEP
SWEATERS AND JACKETS CLOSE BY THE SHORTS AND T SHIRTS.

&&


And a perfect example of the last paragraph...at my backyard it was 37 this morning to 88 this afternoon!!!

[HockeyTx82]

And so it was said.............

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING WET LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COLDER ON
SUNDAY...

REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS
ON TAP WITH FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...THEN
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO FRIDAY IS WHEN THE FORECAST PROCESS BECOMES
COMPLICATED. WE ARE HEDGING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION (COMBINED WITH GFS DATA) OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH RE-
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AFTER THE FIRST ONE
EJECTS AND WEAKENS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS DID NOT SHOW THIS REDEVELOPED AND THUS
REMAINED PROGRESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND PULLED DOWN SOME
VERY COLD AIR FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH ENERGY REMAINING OUT WEST WITH
THE SECOND UPPER LOW...THE ECMWF ALLOWS WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO FORM
OVER TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR HEADED FOR THE
REGION IS REDUCED. THUS OUR CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
INTRUDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ONLY MODERATE AT THE
MOMENT. BECAUSE WE FAVOR A ECMWF-GFS COMBO (WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF)... THIS WEEKEND/S COLD FRONT IS DELAYED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD
AS THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS COMMITMENT ALSO FORCES SOME TEMPORAL AND
SPACIAL CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION EVENT...HOWEVER OUR
CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ASCENT INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS.

CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
DO NOT FAVOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.ALSO...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IS LIMITED TO SATURDAY AND REMAINS
WEAK...THUS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IS EXPECTED. 75

[somethingfunny]

This after several days of FWD discussions about how they were rolling with the GFS solution due to its' run-to-run consistency. Not that I expect this system to bring wintry precipitation to the FWD region, but this always happens to the GFS at mid-range.

NWS Norman isn't nearly as bullish on this system as their counterparts in Amarillo and Lubbock are:

A storm system approaching the region over the weekend will bring widespread light to moderate rain. It currently appears that the greatest chances for rain will be late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. As the rain ends, we could see a light wintry mix across northern Oklahoma Saturday night. No significant winter weather is expected, but there will be bedlam.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Hi Guys!

I'm excited to be back for another year of (hopefully crazy) Texas winter weather! I remember I first stumbled upon this site from a UT message board that was discussing the weather for the UT-A&M game in Austin last year. That was a crazy day, and I remember being outside as that front rolled through and temperatures plummeted Thanksgiving afternoon.

Well, this year's game went better than last year's, and all is right with the world in those terms. Now hopefully Longhorns and Aggies alike can channel their inner Frosty the Snowmen and bring us some wintery fun!

Those courses and modules offered by MetEd seem perfect for someone like myself who has a rudimentary understanding of meteorology (mostly derived from one unit of an Earth Science class several years ago, and being a pilot), but wants to understand more about all the pretty colors we're looking at on the models. Pressure gradients and the most basic of basics I understand, but if I'm trying to get to a point where I can build my knowledge to interpret these maps and model runs on my own, which modules/courses would you recommend? Additionally, if there are any other sites that will start from a very basic level, and slowly crank up the depth of reading/interpreting model runs, it'd be so very much appreciated.

I'd check this site several times a day, and enjoyed empathizing with Portastorm, as our plights are so tragically similar (though I've managed to lay of the Grey Goose so far). I can generally follow along in the most basic forms, but once we start talking about all the various oscillations (AO, NAO, PDO, MJO etc..), I stop being able to apply those practically. So we want to see an MJO in 6,7, or 8, but what determines those values, and why are those numbers good?

If at all possible, I'd humbly request that for the first couple of weeks (as I imagine we get quite a few visits from weather novices such as myself), when images with model runs are posted if you guys/gals could try to point out a few things that we should be noticing in layman's terms, and explain their significance, I would be so, so grateful! Simple things like explaining why a low is forecast to move one way or another, and why that's good for our chances.

I know this is quite likely beneath many of you guys operating on a level way up here *reaches hand WAYYY up high* but I'd love to be able to contribute beyond just lurking!

I hope everyone had a magnificent summer (I know I did, jet-setting around the globe for 5.5 months, and as such, got to miss what I hear was a pleasant, beautiful summer!), and I look forward to getting to "know" you guys over the course of the next several months!

Cheers,
Cameron

[Portastorm]

Longhornmanic ... great post and a reasonable request (a little more explanation to the models and why we're saying what we're saying when we refer to them). Glad to see you back and posting.

The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists at the Portastorm Weather Center raise their glasses in your honor and say, "this one's for you!" (this is the 0z run of the Euro at 240 hours which shows a 1038 mb high parked over SE Oklahoma and a massive, full latitude trough over the eastern half of the continental USA ... definitely below normal temps for us but the real vodka-cold is to our east).



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[DonWrk]

Why is the 500mb map the one that I see is most used? I know the difference in mb is heights but why should I look at the 500mb rather than say the 850mb?

[Portastorm]

The 500mb level tends to be much more of a predominant driver of the atmosphere. The higher one goes with the mb (millibar) level, the lower it is in the atmosphere. The 500mb level of the atmosphere is at 18,000 feet above sea level.

850mb maps (about 5,000 ft above sea level) show the weather closer to the surface and certainly they matter ... but when looking at general patterns and flows, the 500mb level is the preferred map. The 850mb level is what is referred to sometimes as the top of the "boundary layer" which you will see referenced in NWS forecast discussions. 1000mb maps capture this much better. This level of the atmosphere is also much more prone to be influenced by friction.

[Ntxw]

Gfs and euro are both crazy. They have cold air that rivals stuff we had in february (though no real mechanism to drive it as far south). It looks like the arctic has changed it's address to middle Canada and the northern plains of the U.S!

[iorange55]

Wow, I hadn't even looked at the Euro. Geez, it's a little early in the season for that kind of cold!

This season is starting out faster than last year, that's for sure.

[DonWrk]

Gfs and euro are both crazy. They have cold air that rivals stuff we had in february (though no real mechanism to drive it as far south). It looks like the arctic has changed it's address to middle Canada and the northern plains of the U.S!

About 10-12 days out?